中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)的機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)

李卉嬪

從中國新疆喀什出發(fā)，經(jīng)中巴邊境紅其拉甫口岸從巴基斯坦北部進(jìn)入巴國，一路穿越高山峽谷、平原丘陵、戈壁荒漠，最后到達(dá)南部的瓜達(dá)爾港，直通阿拉伯海。這條從喀什到瓜達(dá)爾港的經(jīng)濟(jì)大動脈，加強(qiáng)了中巴兩國互聯(lián)互通，進(jìn)一步深化了中巴全天候戰(zhàn)略合作伙伴關(guān)系，這就是2013年中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊提出的重要戰(zhàn)略設(shè)想。

如今6年過去，走廊建設(shè)第一階段的能源電力項(xiàng)目和交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項(xiàng)目已經(jīng)完成或正在進(jìn)行中，為巴基斯坦下一步的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展奠定了良好的基礎(chǔ)。目前，走廊建設(shè)進(jìn)入以產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、農(nóng)業(yè)合作、社會民生發(fā)展的新階段，又會面臨哪些機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)？

“第一階段很少有項(xiàng)目落地開普省，希望我們在第二階段不會再被落下?！薄白鳛橹邪徒?jīng)濟(jì)走廊的門戶，吉爾吉特卻少有走廊項(xiàng)目，希望我們地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)能跟隨走廊建設(shè)一起發(fā)展?！痹谂c白沙瓦、吉爾吉特等地的智庫學(xué)者、企業(yè)家及商協(xié)會組織代表座談時，與會代表急切地提出了自己的意見。走廊建設(shè)要實(shí)現(xiàn)互聯(lián)互通，最基礎(chǔ)的是要通路、通電、通網(wǎng)（訊）和語言相通，而這些在巴基斯坦的發(fā)展并不均衡。

白沙瓦是巴西北部開普省首府，該省與阿富汗接壤，境內(nèi)多干燥巖石，工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)薄弱且面臨安全挑戰(zhàn)；同樣工業(yè)落后的還有西南部地廣人稀的俾路支省，該省多沙漠，地質(zhì)松軟，修路難度大；位于巴北部的吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦地區(qū)，與中國新疆接壤，境內(nèi)多高山，修路極其艱難，20世紀(jì)60年代，中國幫助其修建喀喇昆侖公路期間，約有700名中巴建設(shè)者為此付出了生命。惡劣的地理、地質(zhì)條件和不穩(wěn)定的政治環(huán)境，加劇了基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的難度。要改變這一狀況，需要中巴雙方攜手尤其是巴方各地方政府重點(diǎn)發(fā)力，引進(jìn)多方資源和力量，來破解制約道路基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施及能源電力項(xiàng)目落地的障礙。

值得欣慰的是，如今連通巴基斯坦幾個重要城市間的高速公路已基本建成通車，比如伊斯蘭堡-白沙瓦，伊斯蘭堡-拉合爾，拉合爾-卡拉奇的高速公路，巴基斯坦的高速公路網(wǎng)基本形成，大大節(jié)省了運(yùn)輸時間。“我們能明顯感覺到城市間的距離縮短了，這將有利于沿線經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和人們生活水平的提升。”開普省省長Rashid Aman接受記者采訪時說道。

除了交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，能源的充足供應(yīng)也是發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)的先決條件。中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊框架下確定了15個能源電力項(xiàng)目，其中10個發(fā)電站項(xiàng)目已實(shí)現(xiàn)并網(wǎng)發(fā)電，解決了絕大部分地區(qū)缺電的問題。

“吉爾吉特有充足的水資源，水電站開發(fā)潛力大，真希望中企能在這里建一個水電站。現(xiàn)在這里平均每天停電6小時-10小時，很多酒店、大型企業(yè)不得不自備發(fā)電機(jī)，噪音污染、空氣污染十分嚴(yán)重?！奔獱柤匾患揖频昀习逭f道，仿佛為了印證他的話，話音剛落，酒店區(qū)域就一片漆黑。對于這個以旅游業(yè)為支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)的地區(qū)，頻繁停電對酒店的影響十分嚴(yán)重。

在巴基斯坦采訪的20多天里，記者深入體會了巴國的4G網(wǎng)絡(luò)。除首都伊斯蘭堡、拉合爾等主要城市市區(qū)外，其他地方如市郊、北部山區(qū)，4G網(wǎng)絡(luò)基本覆蓋不到，尤其在吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦山區(qū)，甚至連通信信號都沒有。

作為巴基斯坦當(dāng)?shù)氐腘GO（非政府）組織，SEEDO可以幫助吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦地區(qū)的優(yōu)秀學(xué)生申請中國政府設(shè)立的“絲路獎學(xué)金”，并到中國學(xué)習(xí)先進(jìn)的技術(shù)知識，畢業(yè)后能有一份不錯的工作。申請可以直接在網(wǎng)上操作，但吉爾吉特很多地方不通網(wǎng)絡(luò)，網(wǎng)上申請很難進(jìn)行，只能人工遞交材料，效率低下讓很多吉爾吉特學(xué)生遺憾地與留學(xué)名額錯過?！拔覀兊暮芏鄬W(xué)生上不了網(wǎng)，甚至都不能及時得到申請獎學(xué)金的消息。”SEEDO的總裁Aziz Karim對此深表可惜。

“中文對我們來說是最重要的外語，如果能在吉爾吉特辦一所孔子學(xué)校教授漢語，那就太棒了！”Karim表示，吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦作為中國人進(jìn)入巴基斯坦的門戶，隨著旅游業(yè)不斷發(fā)展，會有越來越多中國人過來，學(xué)好中文可以和中國人自如交流，了解中國人的思維方式，將減少語言不通帶來的障礙和誤會。加之被派往中國留學(xué)的吉爾吉特-巴爾蒂斯坦當(dāng)?shù)貙W(xué)生，也要求其在一年之內(nèi)通過漢語四級考試才能繼續(xù)留在中國深造，學(xué)成歸國后他們也將服務(wù)于當(dāng)?shù)氐慕?jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)。

今年5月，巴總理伊姆蘭·汗訪華期間，中巴雙方一致同意，以經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)為載體的產(chǎn)業(yè)合作將成為中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)下一階段的重點(diǎn)。

受“深圳模式”激勵，2017年巴基斯坦擬在全國范圍內(nèi)優(yōu)先建設(shè)9個經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)，通過稅收優(yōu)惠和激勵政策促進(jìn)相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，創(chuàng)造就業(yè)，提振境外投資。

位于開普省的拉沙卡伊（Rashakai）經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)目前由中國路橋公司負(fù)責(zé)建設(shè)開發(fā)，有望成為走廊框架下首個落地的工業(yè)園區(qū)，已制定了10年免征企業(yè)所得稅、運(yùn)輸費(fèi)用減免25%等優(yōu)惠政策以吸引外來投資。

目前，巴基斯坦已經(jīng)形成了一些產(chǎn)業(yè)集聚區(qū)，如拉合爾（Lahore）海爾工業(yè)園的家電產(chǎn)業(yè)、錫亞爾科特（Sialkot）的手術(shù)用品產(chǎn)業(yè)、古吉拉特（Gujarat）的陶瓷產(chǎn)業(yè)、費(fèi)薩拉巴德（Faisalabad）的成衣制造產(chǎn)業(yè)等，這些地區(qū)已經(jīng)具備一定的工業(yè)發(fā)展軟硬件基礎(chǔ)，在這些區(qū)域建立經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)，只要政策到位，在引進(jìn)投資方面將更加高效。

經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)的成功需要很多條件，包括稅收激勵政策、快速清關(guān)程序、完善的當(dāng)?shù)毓?yīng)商體系、全球市場以及最重要的港口、鐵路、公路等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施體系。僅稅收激勵這一項(xiàng)巴方就面臨很大的困難，稅收激勵意味著政府在財(cái)政收入上的讓步，但巴基斯坦即使在稅率極高的情況下，2018-2019財(cái)年稅收收入也僅占GDP比重的10%，財(cái)力十分緊張。經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)的開發(fā)還面臨政府管理方面的挑戰(zhàn)，需要克服低效率的官僚主義、政策的不一致性以及各利益相關(guān)方互相扯皮等困難。世行最新報(bào)告顯示，目前巴基斯坦?fàn)I商環(huán)境在190個經(jīng)濟(jì)體中僅位列第136名。

以經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)為載體的產(chǎn)業(yè)合作，在提升內(nèi)外資聯(lián)動的基礎(chǔ)上還可促進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易，增加出口創(chuàng)匯。巴基斯坦礦產(chǎn)資源尤其是寶石資源豐富，農(nóng)牧產(chǎn)品等產(chǎn)量也很大，如果工業(yè)發(fā)展好了，將增加這些產(chǎn)品的附加值，提高出口收入。巴基斯坦國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家普遍認(rèn)為，巴在國際貿(mào)易上表現(xiàn)疲軟，歸根結(jié)底還是本國工業(yè)化程度太低，陷于“無商品可出口”境地。

當(dāng)然，要發(fā)展本地的產(chǎn)業(yè)，本地人還需要主動承擔(dān)起更多工作和責(zé)任。AKRSP總經(jīng)理穆沙法（Musaffar）就表示，他們幫助吉爾吉特地區(qū)脫貧致富，并非是簡單地給他們錢，而是把當(dāng)?shù)厝顺浞纸M織起來，傳授他們相關(guān)技能，讓他們積極開展農(nóng)業(yè)種植等工作，并讓有能力的婦女也有機(jī)會擔(dān)任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)（這對巴基斯坦來說是巨大的突破，巴基斯坦政府、企業(yè)、組織很少女性成員，更別說女性領(lǐng)導(dǎo)了）。AKRSP是一家?guī)椭r(nóng)村發(fā)展，農(nóng)民脫貧致富的機(jī)構(gòu)，數(shù)據(jù)顯示，35年來，吉爾吉特地區(qū)貧困人口已經(jīng)減少一半以上，徹底擺脫了巴基斯坦最窮區(qū)域的局面。

“近兩年到吉爾吉特地區(qū)的游客明顯增長，估計(jì)有一半的游客來自中國?！闭鏑PEC（中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊）研究中心主任Saranjam Baig的團(tuán)隊(duì)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)給巴基斯坦旅游業(yè)發(fā)展帶來了巨大的機(jī)遇。隨著巴基斯坦開放度不斷提高，越來越多國際游客尤其是來自中國的游客光顧此地。巴方也將旅游業(yè)作為中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊下一階段的發(fā)展重點(diǎn)之一。

巴旅游業(yè)融合了多姿多彩文化的建筑、汽車、人文風(fēng)俗以及迤邐的自然風(fēng)光，將繁忙的卡拉奇、精致的拉合爾、“新貴”伊斯蘭堡、雪山環(huán)抱的吉爾吉特串聯(lián)起來。隨著“一帶一路”建設(shè)和中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)的不斷推進(jìn)，中國人逐漸開始發(fā)現(xiàn)巴基斯坦這片尚未被完全開發(fā)的旅游目的地。

“我們沒有其他工業(yè)，旅游業(yè)是我們的唯一支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)，但我們?nèi)狈Y金建設(shè)高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的酒店，提供不了高端服務(wù)，中國是我們學(xué)習(xí)的榜樣，歡迎中國企業(yè)來這里投資?！奔獱柤氐貐^(qū)旅游協(xié)會的代表向中國發(fā)出邀請，希望中國企業(yè)能來這里投資餐館、酒店，吸引更多的游客。

在罕薩和吉爾吉特的酒店，記者發(fā)現(xiàn)這里的服務(wù)與國際旅游目的地還有不小的距離。罕薩的酒店位于地下一層，房間的自來水直接引自外面溝渠的流水，渾濁中還帶有不少泥沙。聽當(dāng)?shù)厝四滤顾ǎ∕ustafa）說，酒店的自來水大都如此，語氣中帶著些不以為意。吉爾吉特的酒店有些像中國的農(nóng)家樂，一個小院里只有不到10個房間，環(huán)境清幽。

7月-8月是吉爾吉特旅游旺季，但除了零星的自駕游客，總?cè)藬?shù)并不多。吉爾吉特與中國沒有直飛航班，機(jī)場很小，飛機(jī)小到僅能容納幾十人，因?yàn)橐煌５卮┻^山脈，經(jīng)常會遇到天氣不好航班取消的情況。如果運(yùn)氣不好，可能還會因此滯留幾天?！跋Ｍ邪蛢蓢荛_通喀什直達(dá)吉爾吉特的航線和大巴，這樣很多到喀什旅游的人也可以順帶到我們這里了。”旅行協(xié)會代表建議道。

鑒于巴基斯坦地理優(yōu)勢明顯，人口基數(shù)大，中巴經(jīng)濟(jì)走廊建設(shè)蘊(yùn)藏極大的發(fā)展機(jī)遇，但對于投資者來說，機(jī)遇與挑戰(zhàn)是永遠(yuǎn)相伴相隨的，看清形勢、謹(jǐn)慎評估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)才有未來的無限可能；而對巴方來說，要發(fā)展除了要引進(jìn)外資，更重要的是修好“內(nèi)功”，完善自身的基礎(chǔ)條件，靈活調(diào)整相關(guān)的政策法規(guī)以適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的需要，才是可持續(xù)發(fā)展之道。

Through mountains， valleys， plains， hills and Gobi Desert， a journey can be taken from Kashgar in Xinjiang， China to the Gwadar Port in the south of Pakistan to reach the Arabian Sea via Khunjerab Pass， the border between China and Pakistan. This economic artery from Kashgar to Gwadar Port has strengthened the interconnection between China and Pakistan and further enhanced the all-weather strategic partnership between China and Pakistan. This was the important strategic vision proposed during the construction of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor （CPEC） in 2013.

Six years have passed since then， the energy， electricity and transportation infrastructure projects in the first stage of the CPEC construction have been completed or are in progress， laying a solid foundation for Pakistan’s further economic development. Currently， the CPEC construction has entered a new stage of industrial development， agricultural cooperation and social livelihood improvement. What are its opportunities and challenges？

“In the first stage， few projects were located in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. I hope we will not be ignored in the second stage.” “Few projects are located at Gilgit， the gateway to the CPEC. I hope our economy can be developed together with the CPEC construction.” During the discussion with think tank scholars， entrepreneurs and business associations from Peshawar， Gilgit， etc.， attendees eagerly put forward their own opinions. In order to realize interconnection， the most fundamental requirements are the access to roads， electricity and network （communication） as well as the removal of language barrier. However， the development of which is imbalanced in Pakistan.

Peshawar is the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa， which is in the northwest of Pakistan. This Province borders Afghanistan. There are lots of dry rocks within this place. Its industrial base is weak and faces security challenges. Balochistan， a sparsely populated province in the southwest， is also backward in industry. Most of this place is desert with loose soil. It makes it hard to build highways and railways. Gilgit-Baltistan， located in northern Pakistan， borders Xinjiang， China， with many mountains and extremely difficult conditions for road construction. In the 1960s when China helped it build Karakoram Highway， about 700 Chinese and Pakistani builders died for it.

Poor geographical and geological conditions and unstable political environment have aggravated the difficulty of infrastructure construction. To change this situation， China and Pakistan， especially the local governments of Pakistan， need to cooperate with each other， introduce various resources and forces to overcome the obstacles that restrict the implementation of road infrastructure， energy and power projects.

It is encouraging that the construction of highways connecting several major cities in Pakistan has been basically completed to provide transport services， such as Islamabad-Peshawar， IslamabadLahore， Lahore-Karachi highways， and Pakistan’s highway network has been basically formed， greatly saving the time for transportation. “We can obviously feel that the distance between cities has been shortened， which will be beneficial to the economic development along the roads and the improvement of people’s living standards.” Rashid Aman， provincial chief of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa， said in an interview to the reporter.

In addition to construction of transportation infrastructure， sufficient supply of energy also constitutes the premise of economic development. Under the framework of the CPEC， 15 energy and power projects have been confirmed， of which 10 power station projects have been connected to the grid to generate electricity， solving the problem of power shortage in most areas.

“Gilgit has sufficient water resources and great potential for hydropower development. I really hope that a hydropower station can be built here during the construction of CPEC. Now the average duration for power outage here is 6-10 hours per day. Many hotels and large enterprises have to prepare their own generators. So noise and air pollution are very severe.” A hotel owner in Gilgit said. His words soon came true， the hotel turned completely dark as soon as he finished speaking. Given that tourism is the mainstay industry in this region， frequent power outages have a negative impact on hotels.

During the more than 20 days of interviews in Pakistan， the reporter experienced its 4G network. Except in the downtown of major cities such as Islamabad （the capital） and Lahore， 4G network is basically not available in other places such as the suburbs and northern mountainous areas， especially in the Gilgit-Baltistan mountainous areas， where there are no communication signals.

As a local NGO in Pakistan， SEEDO can help outstanding students from Gilgit-Baltistan apply for the Silk Road Scholarship set up by the Chinese government， and learn advanced technical knowledge in China， so that they can find a good job after graduation. The application can be directly operated on the internet， which is， however， not available in many places in Gilgit. Due to that the online application is inaccessible， the materials can only be submitted offline. The inefficiency makes many Gilgit students regretfully miss the opportunity of studying abroad. “Many students cannot get online and even cannot receive the information of scholarship application in time.” Aziz Karim， president of SEEDO， said with profound regret.

“Chinese is the most important foreign language for us. It would be great if a Confucius school could be built in Gilgit to teach Chinese！” Karim said that， Gilgit-Baltistan is the gateway for Chinese to enter Pakistan， with the continuous development of tourism， more and more Chinese will come here. Learning Chinese well can facilitate the communication with the Chinese and understanding of their way of thinking， which will reduce the obstacles and misunderstandings caused by the language barrier. Local students from Gilgit-Baltistan sent to study in China also have to pass the HSK-4 within one year to stay in China for further study. Upon their return， they will join the local economic construction.

During Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to China in May this year， China and Pakistan agreed unanimously that industrial cooperation based on special economic zones （SEZs） will be the focus of the next stage of CPEC construction.

Inspired by the “Shenzhen Model”， Pakistan plans to give priority to the construction of 9 SEZs in 2017. The development of related industries， economic growth， job creation and overseas investment will be promoted through tax preference and incentive policies.

Rashakai Special Economic Zone， located in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa， is currently constructed and developed by the China Road and Bridge Corporation and is expected to be the first implemented industrial zone under the CPEC framework. Preferential policies such as exemption of 10-year corporate income tax and 25% reduction or exemption of transportation expenses have been formulated to attract foreign investment.

At present， some industrial clusters come into being in Pakistan， such as the home appliance industry in Lahore Haier Industrial Park， the surgical supplies industry in Sialkot， the ceramic industry in Gujarat， and the clothing manufacturing industry in Faisalabad. These regions already have a certain software and hardware foundation for industrial development. SEZs in these regions will attract investment more efficiently as long as policies are ready.

The success of SEZs requires many conditions， including tax incentives， fast customs clearance procedures， sound local supplier systems， global market and most importantly， infrastructure systems such as ports， railways and highways. Pakistan is facing great difficulties in tax incentive. Tax incentive means the government’s concession in fiscal revenue. However， even if the tax rate in Pakistan is extremely high， the tax revenue in fiscal year 2018-2019 only accounts for 10% of GDP. The government is short of financial resources. The development of SEZs also faces challenges in government management， and needs to overcome such difficulties such as inefficient bureaucracy， inconsistent policies and conflict among various stakeholders. According to the latest report of World Bank， Pakistan currently ranks 136th among 190 economies in terms of business environment.

Industrial cooperation based on SEZs can boost the linkage between domestic and foreign investment， promote export trade and increase foreign exchange through exports. Pakistan is rich in mineral resources， especially precious stones， and has a large output of agricultural and pastoral products. If the industry is well developed， the added value of these products and the export income will be increased. Pakistan’s domestic economists generally believe that Pakistan’s weak performance in international trade is ultimately due to its low level of industrialization and its plight of “no commodities to export”.

In order to develop local industries， local people need to actively undertake more work and responsibilities. Musaffar， General Manager of AKRSP（Aga Khan Rural Support Programme）， said that they did not simply give money to help people in Gilgit to get rid of poverty and become rich. Instead， they organized local people， taught them relevant skills， enabled them to actively carry out agricultural cultivation and other work， and allowed capable women to be the leaders （this is a great breakthrough for Pakistan because there are few female members in Pakistani government， enterprises and organizations， not to mention female leaders）.

AKRSP is an organization that promotes rural development and helps farmers to get rid of poverty and become rich. Data show that in the past 35 years， the poverty population in Gilgit has been reduced by more than half， completely getting rid of the situation of being the Pakistan’s poorest region.

“The number of tourists to Gilgit has increased significantly in the past two years. It is estimated that half of the tourists come from China.” According to the research by the team of Saranjam Baig， Director of the CPEC Research Center， the construction of CPEC has brought great opportunities to the development of Pakistan’s tourism. With the everincreasing openness of Pakistan， more and more international tourists， especially those from China， visit this place. Pakistan also regards tourism as one of the development priorities for the next stage of the CPEC construction.

Architecture， automobiles and customs with rich cultural heritage and spectacular natural scenery constitute a superb tourist route connecting busy Karachi， delicate Lahore， rising Islamabad， and Gilgit surrounded by snowy mountains. With the construction of the Belt and Road and CPEC， the Chinese gradually discover the unexplored tourist destination of Pakistan.

“We don’t have other industries. Tourism is our only pillar industry， but we lack the funds to build high-standard hotels and can’t provide high-end services. China is our role model. Chinese enterprises are welcome to invest here.” Representatives of the Gilgit Tourism Association hope that Chinese enterprises could invest in restaurants and hotels here to attract more tourists.

At the hotels in Hunza and Gilgit， the reporter found that， the service here still has a long way to go， compared with that of the international tourist destinations. The hotels of Hunza are located at the ground floor. The tap water with sediment is from the running water in the ditch outside. Mustafa， a local resident， regarded it as normal because the tap water of hotels is always like this. Judging from his tone， it seems like he did not see this as a big problem. The hotels of Gilgit are somewhat like the agritainment in China. There are less than 10 rooms in a small courtyard. The environment is quiet and beautiful.

July and August are the peak season for tourism in Gilgit. But there are not many people except for some self-driving tourists. There are no direct flights between Gilgit and China. Gilgit Airport is small and the airplanes can only accommodate a few dozen people. Since the planes have to cross mountains continuously， the flights are often canceled in case of bad weather. In case of star-crossed conditions， you may be detained for several days. “I hope the flights and buses between Kashgar and Gilgit can be opened， so that many tourists in Kashgar can come here too.”Representatives of the Gilgit Tourist Association suggested.

In view of Pakistan’s obvious geographical advantages and a large population， CPEC construction has great development opportunities. But for investors， opportunities always go hand in hand with challenges， so it is necessary to evaluate the situation and risks. For Pakistan， development requires introduction of foreign investment， but more importantly， its own efforts are needed. It needs to improve its own basic conditions， flexibly adjust relevant policies and regulations to meet the needs of economic development and promote sustainable development.