World Could Run Out of Chocolate by 2050

By Sophie Curtis

Chocolate could soon be a thing of the past, after scientists warned that the cacao plant, from which chocolate is made, could be extinct2extinct不再存在的，絕跡的。within 32 years.

[2] Over half of the world’s chocolate comes from just two countries in West Africa—C?te d’Ivoire and Ghana—where the temperature, rain, and humidity provide the perfect conditions for cacao to thrive.

[3] But the threat of rising temperatures over the next three decades,caused by climate change, is expected to result in a loss of moisture from the ground, which scientists say could upset this delicate balance.

[4] According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a temperature rise of just 2.1 degrees centigrade could spell an end for the chocolate industry worldwide by 2050.

科學(xué)家發(fā)出了警告，制作巧克力所用的可可植物或?qū)⒃?2年內(nèi)滅絕，真是這樣的話，巧克力很快就會成為歷史了。

[2]僅科特迪瓦和加納兩個西非國家，就提供了世界上超過半數(shù)的巧克力，因為兩地的溫度、降水及濕度為可可樹創(chuàng)造了絕佳的生長環(huán)境。

[3]但由于氣候變化，氣溫在未來30年將持續(xù)升高，這會導(dǎo)致土壤水分流失——科學(xué)家認(rèn)為，環(huán)境中微妙的平衡關(guān)系將因此被打破。

[4]美國國家海洋與大氣管理局的研究表明，對全球的巧克力行業(yè)而言，氣溫僅上升2.1攝氏度就可能意味著2050年的滅頂之災(zāi)。

[5] Farmers in the region are already looking at moving cacao production areas thousands of feet uphill into mountainous terrain—much of which is currently preserved for wildlife.

[6] But a move of this scale could destroy ecosystems that are already under threat from illegal farming and deforestation3deforestation毀林，濫伐森林。.

[7] Part of the problem, according to Doug Hawkins from London-based research firm Hardman Agribusiness,is that cacao farming methods have not changed for hundreds of years.

[8] “Unlike other tree crops that have benefited from the development of modern, high yielding cultivars4cultivar栽培品種。and crop management techniques to realise their genetic potential, more than 90%of the global cocoa crop is produced by smallholders on subsistence farms with unimproved planting material,” he told Mail Online.

“All the indicators are that we could be looking at a chocolate deficit55 deficit不足。of 100,000 tonnes a year in the next few years.”

[9] Now scientists at the University of California at Berkeley have teamed up with American confectionery6confectionery甜食（糖果、巧克力等）。company Mars, in an attempt to keep chocolate on the menu.

[5]當(dāng)?shù)剞r(nóng)民已開始考慮將可可產(chǎn)區(qū)上遷數(shù)千英尺，那里的山區(qū)現(xiàn)今多為野生動植物保護區(qū)。

[6]但如此大舉搬遷可能會破壞本已受到非法耕作與亂砍濫伐威脅的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)。

[7]在道格·霍金斯看來，這個問題在某種程度上要歸因于數(shù)百年來一成不變的可可種植方式。道格·霍金斯供職于倫敦一家名為“哈德曼農(nóng)商企業(yè)”的調(diào)查公司。

[8]他對英國《每日郵報》說：“其他木本作物得益于現(xiàn)代高產(chǎn)栽培和作物管理技術(shù)的發(fā)展，作物基因潛能得到充分發(fā)揮。與它們不同，全球超過90%的可可作物是由自足型農(nóng)場的小農(nóng)戶用未經(jīng)改良的種子種植生產(chǎn)的?！?/p>

“所有跡象都表明，今后若干年，我們可能面臨每年10萬噸的巧克力缺口?！?/p>

[9]目前，加利福尼亞大學(xué)伯克利分校的科學(xué)家已與美國瑪氏糖果公司組成科研團隊，旨在讓巧克力繼續(xù)留在美食單上。

[10] Using the controversial geneediting technology7gene-editing technology基因編輯技術(shù)，指人類對目標(biāo)基因進行“編輯”，實現(xiàn)對特定DNA片段的修改等。known as CRISPR they are trying to develop a version of the cacao plant capable of surviving—and thriving—in dryer, warmer climates.

[11] CRISPR has received widespread media attention because of its potential to eradicate8eradicate根除，消滅。human diseases and make so-called “designer babies9designer baby設(shè)計嬰兒，指在出生前就對其基因構(gòu)成進行了選擇的孩子?！?

[12] However, Jennifer Doudna, the UC Berkeley geneticist who invented CRISPR, thinks its most useful effects will be on plants rather than humans.

“Personally, I’d love a tomato plant with fruit that stayed on the vine longer10采用基因編輯技術(shù)培育出的番茄掛果時間長，不容易掉落。,” Doudna, who is an avid11avid熱衷的，酷愛的。gardener, told Business Insider.

[13] If the team’s work on the cacao plant is successful, it could remove the need for farmers in West Africa to relocate to higher ground, and perhaps even allow cacao to be grown elsewhere in the world.

[10]他們利用備受爭議的基因編輯技術(shù)，即眾所周知的CRISPR，試圖研發(fā)一種能在更加干燥和溫暖的氣候條件下存活并生長的可可植物。

[11] CRISPR目前得到媒體的廣泛關(guān)注，因為該項技術(shù)有望根除人類疾病，并培育出所謂“定制嬰兒”。

[12]然而，加州大學(xué)伯克利分校的遺傳學(xué)家、CRISPR的發(fā)明者珍妮弗·杜德娜認(rèn)為，此項技術(shù)最大的用武之地在植物而非人類。

酷愛園藝的杜德娜對美國《商業(yè)內(nèi)參》表示：“我個人覺得，如果能培育出藤上掛果時間長一些的番茄樹，會更有意義?！?/p>

[13]如果該團隊在可可作物的研發(fā)項目上能取得成功，西非的農(nóng)民就無須將作物遷往更高的地帶，而且，可可樹或許還可以種植在世界其他地方了。