From "Expecting Soon" to "Increasing Uncertainties":Difficulties to Improve U.S.-Russian Relations

By Zhou Li,

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From "Expecting Soon" to "Increasing Uncertainties":Difficulties to Improve U.S.-Russian Relations

By Zhou Li,

CPAPD Vice President and former Vice Minister of the International Department of the CPC

The relationship between the United States and Russia is one of the most important relations of major countries in the world, and whether it is good or bad directly affects the development trend of the world pattern. Back in 2017 as Trump taking the office, U.S.-Russian relations was expected to improve soon, but through continuous fermentation of the "Door to Russian" Scandal, the introduction of the U.S. Sanction Bill on Russia, taking turns to expel diplomats and closing diplomatic premises, demanding each other’s media to register as "foreign agents", the U.S. new version of the National Security Strategy Report and the sharp confrontation at the United Nations Security Council around the Iranian demonstrations and other series of events, although there are signs of relations recovery in the course of these events such as the two heads of state meeting twice, and several calls between them, ultimately the bilateral relations dropped to unprecedented low-point historically, and ended up with "uncertainties increasing" on the way forward.

Having entered the year 2018, the United States and Russia have respectively released a new round of signals to improve relations between the two countries. On January 5th, U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson said in an interview with CNN that the U.S.-Russian relations in 2017 was very difficult and tense, but President Trump and he himself have made it clear that there is a need for the United States and Russia to build a more constructive relationship. On the 11th, President Putin spoke to the United States through meeting with the senior management of the well-known Russian media agencies: the U.S. side should show "courage and normal thinking" in developing relations with Russia, and the improvement of Russia-U.S. relations first accords with the U.S. national interests. On the same day, the Russian Ambassador to the United States Ambassador Antonov and U.S. Ambassador to Russia Ambassador Jon Huntsman met in Washington, and began to discuss how to improve bilateral relations. Antonov told media that Russia and the United States should rebuild the direct links between the two sides in military and diplomatic relations and restore the "2+2" talks.

So, can the new signal to improve relations between the United States and Russia be productive? It seems there are many difficulties currently since none of the factors that have plagued and obstructed U.S. - Russian relations is reduced.

One is the sharp opposition to the Ukraine issue. Russia's position, as everyone knows, is that the United States must stop the intervention in Ukraine, Russian most important neighbor, does not provide any military assistance to Ukraine, cut off funding to Ukraine directly or through the International Monetary Fund, and prevent further escalation of conflicts in Donbass. While the views of the United States are that Russia should not only fulfill all the terms of the Minsk agreement, stop the “invasion of Ukraine”, but return its Crimea, no longer support the two states in eastern Ukraine, Donetsk and Lugansk to get independence for setting up sovereign countries, and agree to peacekeepers stationed along the Russia-Ukraine border. All of these requirements are unacceptable to Russia. So there is no possibility so far to see a compromise between the two sides.

Two is accusing each other of intervening in their internal affairs. Some say the clamor raised by the “Door to Russian” scandal inside the United States will soon end, and others say it will end after the Russian general election in March. But nowadays it dose not seem so easy since it involves in the political struggle in the United States, and the struggle against or for Trump's Administration to continue. This struggle is open and fierce and is rare in American history. Because of this, "Door to Russia" scandal is likely to see a start but not through with it, so it will continue throughout the first term of Trump's presidency, and will help set up a layer of stairs for impeachment of Trump. In Russia’s view, the United States provides financial support to the pro - Western social organizations and media in Russia, equivalent to intervening in the domestic affairs of Russia. According to the data exposed, from the years 2015 to 2018, foreign news agencies had spend about US$80 million on news and radio stations in Russia. This more than doubles the financial support provided to Merdeka Square in Ukraine in 2014. In 2017, the United States and Russia requested each other’s media to register as "foreign agents", which turned the past struggle under the table to the fierce grapple and tussle on the table.

Three is the fierce struggle around cyberspace. There is no doubt that the United States is the world's most powerful network capable country. But on the lips of the U.S. Congress, the Government and the media, the United States is often the victim of cyber attacks. Although there is no sufficient evidence found to date, the American accusation of the "hacker" acts of Russia has never stopped. One of the biggest charges is that Russia interfered with the U. S. presidential election in 2016 through cyber attacks. This charge, even Trump himself considered a "myth", is absurd to the extreme. But even more moderate faction of the U.S. political authority, such as the U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman, now believes that it is necessary for the United States and Russia to carry out a "honest" conversation on this topic. "Honesty" in their understanding means Russia should admit that it has carried out cyber attacks against the United States and should be punished for it, then the two sides can start dialogue. Can Russia follow it this way? The answer is absolutely "no". In September 2017, the United States even banned Russian Kabasiji antivirus software across the board in the United States, even on the pretext of "technical possibility".

Four is the United States imposes increasing sanctions on Russia. On April 28, 2014, the United States declared sanctions against 7 Russian officials and 17 corporations on the ground that Russia continued to "intervene" in the situation of Ukraine. Since then, the United States has increased the number of sanctions against Russia. The Sanctions Bill on Russia passed in July 2017 was the largest scale and most comprehensive sanctions of the United States on Russia. The act directed at "Nord Stream 2 AG" project to Western Europe (bypassing Poland, Ukraine and others, from Russian North region via the Baltic Sea, to enter Germany) constructed by Gazprom Corp., and intends to squeeze Russia out of the European energy market, and weakens Russia's political influence.

Five is the differences on the issues of Afghanistan. In 2017, Russia once again requested the U.S. troops to withdraw from Afghanistan, because the Russian side believes that the U.S. Army is not competent at the mission entrusted by the UN Security Council 16 years ago. The U.S. Army is unable to defeat Taliban and cannot build Afghanistan a dynamic country, and can only pick up various internal conflicts there. In addition, the Americans are also take a laissez-faire attitude on drug trafficking along the border between the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan. The United States also accuses Russia of "flirting" with Taliban, or providing weapons to Taliban. In August 2017, Trump announced the implementation of the new strategy of the United States in Afghanistan, negating Obama's policy toward Afghanistan, abandoning the statement on earlier withdrawal of troops but on the contrary increasing the number of troops stationed and expanding its jurisdiction.

Six is the tit for tat struggle on the Iranian issue. After coming to power, Trump continues to threaten withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for Iranian Nuclear Issue. In October 2017, Trump refused to confirm to the U.S. Congress that Iran was complying with the Plan. At the end of 2017, demonstrations took place in Iran. Trump immediately released his statement on his personal twitter, asking the U.S. Government to intervene quickly, and strongly urged the UN Security Council to convene an emergency meeting to discuss and form a resolution, intending to internationalize and complicate the Iranian issue. This U.S. action has been universally condemned by the members of the Security Council, and Russia reacted the most strongly. Russia requests the United States fully respect the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and fundamentally abolish sanctions imposed on Iran.

Seven is disagreements on the Korean nuclear issue. As a neighboring country of the DPRK, Russia regards the denuclearization as the fundamental goal for the settlement of the North Korean nuclear issue. Russia is strongly dissatisfied with the THAAD entry to South Korea, demanding that Trump cease to threaten North Korea by force, and has repeatedly demonstrated Russia's stand against applying pressure through nothing but coercion on North Korea. Putin has further said recently that no matter how complicated the denuclearization process of the Korean Peninsula looks, as long as all parties including the DPRK can recognize and confirm that North Korea’s security even without nuclear weapons can also be guaranteed, so the goal of denuclearization is possible. This position, apparently is quite different with the Trump Administration’s. In addition, Russia also hopes to develop economic ties with North Korea and South Korea, especially laying the energy pipeline through North Korea and South Korea, which can drive the economic development in Far East and Northeast Asia.

Eight is a very different goal on the Syrian issue. Russia's goal is to maintain the Assad government, to prevent the Syria secession, has repeatedly called the United States to withdraw from Syria, give up efforts against the Assad government, and stop providing funds and weapons support to rebels especially Islamic Jihad group al-Nusrat front in Syria trying to overthrow the Assad Government by armed forces. The United States does not like Assad's government, and has been trying to overthrow it, intends to maintain the presence in the form of supporting local autonomy and confronting the Assad government, and repeating the split of Iraq in Syria, so refuses to withdraw from Syria. Both the interests and positions between Russia and the United States are difficult to reconcile.

There is always a dual nature in the development of matters. In the analysis of unfavorable factors, meanwhile we should also note some favorable factors in the relationship between the United States and Russia as follows: One is that Trump and Putin have a good impression on each other, no matter how complicated the situation is, the two have never made unfriendly remarks to each other, and repeatedly stressed publicly to build a good working relationship and personal friendship. Two is Russia keeps long-term view and hopes to improve relations between the two countries, has repeatedly offered to conduct substantial equal dialogues in all the fields, to create conditions for the normalization of relations, and showed attitude to the United States in rather restraint manner. Three is that there is the necessity of cooperation in counter-terrorism and other fields between the United States and Russia. Four is France and Germany and other countries for their own interests do not want the U.S.-Russian relations continue to deteriorate, nor have more related-troubles in Europe, so as to seize every opportunity to try to ease tensions between Russia and the United States. But the favorable factors are in obvious inferiority in comparison with the unfavorable factors. The reversal of the situation needs not only the efforts of both the United States and Russia and the relevant parties, but also the time.

The essence of the disputes between the United States and Russia is that the two countries' views on international order, geopolitics and national interests are completely different. Therefore, the improvement of the relationship between the two countries is bound to be a difficult process. After all, the struggle for the monopolar or the multipolar world is also a difficult course.

The heads of state of Russia and the United States met twice in so far.