氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估方法研究進(jìn)展

李 佳, 劉 芳, 張 宇, 薛亞東, 李迪強(qiáng)

中國(guó)林業(yè)科學(xué)研究院森林生態(tài)環(huán)境與保護(hù)研究所,國(guó)家林業(yè)局森林生態(tài)環(huán)境重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室,北京 100091

氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估方法研究進(jìn)展

李 佳, 劉 芳, 張 宇, 薛亞東, 李迪強(qiáng)*

中國(guó)林業(yè)科學(xué)研究院森林生態(tài)環(huán)境與保護(hù)研究所,國(guó)家林業(yè)局森林生態(tài)環(huán)境重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗(yàn)室,北京 100091

脆弱性評(píng)估是研究氣候變化影響野生動(dòng)物的重要內(nèi)容,識(shí)別野生動(dòng)物脆弱性,是適應(yīng)和減緩氣候變化影響的關(guān)鍵和基礎(chǔ)。開展氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物的脆弱性評(píng)估工作,目的是為了確定易受氣候變化影響的物種和明確導(dǎo)致物種脆弱性的因素,其評(píng)估結(jié)果有助于人類認(rèn)識(shí)氣候變化對(duì)野生動(dòng)物的影響,為野生動(dòng)物適應(yīng)氣候變化保護(hù)對(duì)策的制定提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。對(duì)野生動(dòng)物而言(物種),脆弱性是物種受氣候變化影響的程度,包括暴露度、敏感性和適應(yīng)能力三大要素。其中,暴露度是由氣候變化引起的外在因素,如溫度、降雨量、極值天氣等；敏感性是受物種自身因素影響,如種間關(guān)系、耐受性等；適應(yīng)能力是物種通過自身調(diào)整來減小氣候變化帶來的影響,如遷移或擴(kuò)散到適宜生境的能力、塑性反應(yīng)和進(jìn)化反應(yīng)等。對(duì)近期有關(guān)氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估方法予以綜述,比較每種評(píng)估方法所選取指標(biāo)的差異,總結(jié)在脆弱性評(píng)估中遇到的不確定性指標(biāo)的處理方法,以及脆弱性評(píng)估結(jié)果在野生動(dòng)物適應(yīng)氣候變化對(duì)策中的應(yīng)用。通過總結(jié)野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估方法,以期為氣候變化背景下評(píng)估我國(guó)野生動(dòng)物資源的脆弱性提供參考方法。

氣候變化；脆弱性；暴露度；敏感性；適應(yīng)性保護(hù)對(duì)策

氣候變化是國(guó)際社會(huì)普遍關(guān)注的重大全球環(huán)境問題,聯(lián)合國(guó)政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)(IPCC)第5次評(píng)估報(bào)告指出,全球氣候變暖這一不可否認(rèn)的事實(shí),人類活動(dòng)是導(dǎo)致近百年來全球普遍增溫的主要原因,在過去的100多年間(1880—2012年),氣溫上升了約0.85℃,尤其是近60多年,氣溫升高了0.72℃[1]。人類活動(dòng)所引起的溫室氣體增加以及由此造成的全球氣候變暖和對(duì)全球生物多樣性的影響越來越引起人們的關(guān)注[2- 3]。

全球氣候變暖對(duì)生物多樣性產(chǎn)生了很大的影響。大量觀測(cè)事實(shí)表明,氣候變暖對(duì)物種地理分布[4- 5]、種群動(dòng)態(tài)[6- 7]、物候特征(包括產(chǎn)卵期、遷徙期、遷徙距離等)[8- 9]、進(jìn)化[10- 11]等方面產(chǎn)生深刻影響,且這些影響在未來將會(huì)變得更加劇烈[12- 13]。如果氣候變暖的趨勢(shì)得不到有效的遏制,溫度升高2℃(升高2℃被聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化公約組織(UFCCC)定義為“危險(xiǎn)”溫度[14]),全球?qū)⒂?5%─35%物種滅絕[15],這無疑將會(huì)給生物多樣性的保護(hù)帶來嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。盡管氣候變化對(duì)生物滅絕程度和速度的預(yù)測(cè)存在一定的爭(zhēng)議,但氣候變暖加速生物滅絕的現(xiàn)狀和趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)被廣泛證實(shí)[16- 17]。目前,在全球氣候變化背景下,如何制定有效的生物多樣性保護(hù)對(duì)策,已成為政府、生態(tài)學(xué)家和民眾普遍關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問題。

脆弱性評(píng)估是研究氣候變化影響野生動(dòng)物的重要內(nèi)容,識(shí)別野生動(dòng)物脆弱性,是適應(yīng)和減緩氣候變化影響的關(guān)鍵和基礎(chǔ),國(guó)際上IPCC、國(guó)際自然保護(hù)聯(lián)盟(IUCN)等相關(guān)組織以及美國(guó)、歐盟等國(guó)家正在開展這方面的研究,通過開展氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物的脆弱性評(píng)估工作,提出建立野生動(dòng)物適應(yīng)氣候變化的科學(xué)對(duì)策,最終為人類能有效應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化和野生動(dòng)物保護(hù)提供強(qiáng)有力的依據(jù)[3,18- 21]。在我國(guó),氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估工作,已被《生物多樣性保護(hù)戰(zhàn)略與行動(dòng)計(jì)劃(2011—2030年)》列為未來20年優(yōu)先行動(dòng)計(jì)劃[22]。然而,目前該領(lǐng)域研究還處于探討、介紹的層面,評(píng)估方法認(rèn)識(shí)還不足[23]。為此,本文對(duì)近期國(guó)外有關(guān)氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估方法予以綜述,以期為氣候變化背景下評(píng)估我國(guó)野生動(dòng)物資源的脆弱性提供方法參考。

1 脆弱性的概念

IPCC對(duì)脆弱性進(jìn)行了較為完整的定義,認(rèn)為脆弱性是指系統(tǒng)易于遭受或沒有能力去應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化引起的負(fù)面影響的程度,包括系統(tǒng)暴露度、敏感性和適應(yīng)能力三大要素[24]。暴露度是系統(tǒng)遭受氣候變化脅迫的程度,敏感性是系統(tǒng)被氣候變化脅迫改變的程度,適應(yīng)能力是系統(tǒng)通過調(diào)整來適應(yīng)氣候變化的能力。通常來講暴露度和敏感度的增大,會(huì)加劇系統(tǒng)的脆弱性；適應(yīng)能力的增強(qiáng)則會(huì)降低系統(tǒng)的脆弱性[25]。對(duì)野生動(dòng)物而言(物種),脆弱性是物種受氣候變化影響的程度,同樣包括暴露度、敏感性和適應(yīng)能力三大要素[26- 27]。敏感性是受物種自身因素影響,如生態(tài)學(xué)、生理學(xué)、生活史、行為、基因多樣性、種間關(guān)系等[28- 29]；暴露度是由氣候變化引起的外在因素,如溫度、降雨量、極值天氣等直接影響因素,以及氣候變化改變物種棲息環(huán)境、植被結(jié)構(gòu)和組成、海平面上升等間接影響因素[29- 31]；適應(yīng)能力是物種通過自身調(diào)整來減小氣候變化帶來的影響,如遷移或擴(kuò)散到適宜生境的能力、塑性反應(yīng)和進(jìn)化反應(yīng)等[32- 33]。

2 脆弱性評(píng)估的意義

評(píng)估物種脆弱性,是為其制定有效的氣候變化適應(yīng)對(duì)策提供科學(xué)依據(jù)[30]。脆弱性評(píng)估主要解決兩個(gè)問題：(1)確定易受氣候變化影響的物種；(2)明確導(dǎo)致物種脆弱性的因素[28]。脆弱性評(píng)估有利于科研人員和管理決策者理解氣候變化的影響,了解物種脆弱性分布、脆弱性成因,同時(shí)制定相應(yīng)的適應(yīng)性保護(hù)策略,從而增強(qiáng)物種的適應(yīng)能力。因此,脆弱性評(píng)估工作被認(rèn)為是一切適應(yīng)氣候變化對(duì)策制定的開始[30]。

3 脆弱性評(píng)估方法

目前,氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆性評(píng)估是一個(gè)比較新的研究領(lǐng)域,評(píng)估方法不多,現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)中有關(guān)氣候變化的野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估方法歸納為三類,生物氣候包絡(luò)模型評(píng)估、機(jī)理性生態(tài)位模型和脆弱性指數(shù)評(píng)估[27,30,34]。

3.1 生物氣候包絡(luò)模型評(píng)估

基于空間生態(tài)位理論發(fā)展起來的生物氣候包絡(luò)模型(Bioclimate envelope)是評(píng)估物種脆弱性的方法之一,通過模型能獲得較準(zhǔn)確的物種分布范圍,并能預(yù)測(cè)未來物種分布的變化[35- 38]。物種是否脆弱性主要通過對(duì)比物種現(xiàn)今潛在分布區(qū)和未來預(yù)測(cè)分布區(qū)的變化,如果物種未來預(yù)測(cè)分布區(qū)大范圍縮減,或者未來分布區(qū)與當(dāng)前潛在分布區(qū)重疊較少,則表明氣候變化對(duì)物種影響較大[39- 41]。Lawler等利用模型預(yù)測(cè)氣候變化對(duì)2954種脊椎動(dòng)物的影響,結(jié)果表明至少有10%的物種將會(huì)消失,且90%的物種分布區(qū)系將會(huì)發(fā)生變化[42]；Sinervo等預(yù)測(cè),到2080年氣候變化將會(huì)導(dǎo)致墨西哥20%的蜥蜴種類滅絕[43]；Pearson等利用模型分析氣候變化對(duì)36種美國(guó)特有兩棲類和爬行類的影響,在不考慮氣候變化情景下,到2100年,只有少于1%的物種將會(huì)滅絕,而考慮CO2排放較高情景下,將有28%的物種會(huì)滅絕[44]；生活在海洋中的生物同樣面臨著氣候變化的影響,Poloczanska等對(duì)全球1735種洋海生物進(jìn)行研究,發(fā)現(xiàn)81%—83%的物種分布、物候、群落組成、豐富度等發(fā)生顯著變化[45]。類似結(jié)果如澳大利亞的樹袋熊(Phascolarctoscinereus)[46]、太平洋海象(Odobenusrosmarusdivergens)[47]、喜馬拉雅山的雪豹(Pantherauncia)[48]、中國(guó)的大熊貓(Ailuropodamelanoleuca)[37,49- 50],氣候變化可能導(dǎo)致這些物種未來適宜棲息地面積大量縮減,加快物種滅絕的速度。當(dāng)然,氣候變化并非總是導(dǎo)致物種棲息地減少,有些物種可能得益于氣候變暖,導(dǎo)致其種群擴(kuò)散,如華夏粗針蟻(Pachycondylachinensis)[51]、美國(guó)的牛蛙(Ranacatesbeiana)[52]、歐洲的葛氏鱸塘鱧(Perccottusglenii)[53]等物種,預(yù)測(cè)有可能在全球或局域擴(kuò)散的趨勢(shì)。模型能準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)物種分布范圍,然而簡(jiǎn)單利用模型預(yù)測(cè)物種未來分布變化來評(píng)估物種脆弱性,這種評(píng)估方法有其不足和局限性[40,54]。模型主要考慮氣候因素,經(jīng)常會(huì)忽略掉一些重要的生物或非生物因素,如物種對(duì)環(huán)境因素的耐受性、物種間相互作用、遷移和進(jìn)化能力、地理異質(zhì)性等,這無疑將會(huì)影響模型的預(yù)測(cè)能力[40]。

3.2 機(jī)理性生態(tài)位模型評(píng)估

基于物種野外觀察(如種群動(dòng)態(tài)、遷移等)和實(shí)驗(yàn)(如生理耐受性)發(fā)展而來的模型,如種群生存力分析、生理耐受閾值和遷移模型等,總稱為機(jī)理性生態(tài)位模型,同樣被用于評(píng)估物種脆弱性[27,30,55]。機(jī)理性生態(tài)位模型主要通過分析未來氣候變化背景下物種滅絕的概率、物種對(duì)各因子的生理耐受范圍、物種是否遷移、土地利用變化等信息,來評(píng)物種脆弱程度[27]。Naveda-Rodríguez等結(jié)合物種分布模型和漩渦模型(Vortex model)分析安第斯禿鷹(Culturgryphus)種群滅絕風(fēng)險(xiǎn),認(rèn)為生境喪失是該物種面臨的最大威脅[56]；Jenouvrier等認(rèn)為氣溫變暖將會(huì)是導(dǎo)致棲息在南極洲帝企鵝(Aptenodytesforesteri)種群生存力下降[57]?；谏砟褪苄缘拇嗳跣栽u(píng)估方法認(rèn)為動(dòng)物對(duì)環(huán)境因子的生理耐受范圍限制了物種的分布[58],如大部分變溫動(dòng)物主要分布在低洼熱帶雨林[59]、棲息在海洋中的變溫動(dòng)物將向極地和赤道擴(kuò)張分布[60],而一些地方特有或島嶼昆蟲類限制在海拔較低的區(qū)域[61]；Schloss等利用物種遷移能力來評(píng)估氣候變化背景下西半球獸類脆弱性,認(rèn)為氣候變化速率超出許多獸類遷移速率,西半球?qū)?huì)有39%的獸類無法通過自身擴(kuò)散來適應(yīng)氣候變化[62]。機(jī)理性生態(tài)位模型要求對(duì)各物種的基本信息非常準(zhǔn)確,如生理耐受范圍、物種遷移能力、種群動(dòng)態(tài)、種群結(jié)構(gòu)等,而這些信息往往不易確定,需要開展大量的研究工作[27,63]。

3.3 脆弱性指數(shù)評(píng)估

自殺是一種復(fù)雜的社會(huì)現(xiàn)象，研究者可以從多個(gè)方面來理解和考察。在進(jìn)化心理學(xué)的框架下，de Catanzaro(1991)提出的適應(yīng)器理論激發(fā)了眾多的研究，值得感興趣的研究者予以關(guān)注。不過，這一理論依然還需要更多研究的檢驗(yàn)，而感興趣的研究者可以在未來著重考慮以下幾個(gè)方面。

脆弱性指數(shù)利用物種敏感性、暴露度和適應(yīng)能力等指標(biāo),通過給每個(gè)指標(biāo)打分來評(píng)估物種脆弱度,是目前全球氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估使用最普遍的方法[30]。脆弱性指數(shù)需整合大量的物種信息,如物種分布、種群動(dòng)態(tài)、生活史、生理、以及模型預(yù)測(cè)等[55,64]。大量信息可以通過已發(fā)表文獻(xiàn)、文學(xué)報(bào)道、實(shí)驗(yàn)、野外觀察、以及從網(wǎng)站下載氣候數(shù)據(jù)等途徑獲取[30,55,65]。為簡(jiǎn)化這些工作,許多研究人員和機(jī)構(gòu)開發(fā)了一些框架或系統(tǒng)來更有效的評(píng)估物種脆弱性。

3.3.1 CCVI指數(shù)

CCVI指數(shù)(Climate Change Vulnerability Index, CCVI)由美國(guó)自然保護(hù)組織-自然服務(wù)開發(fā),自然服務(wù)建立了北美生物多樣性數(shù)據(jù)平臺(tái),并開發(fā)了基于該數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)的脆弱性指數(shù)評(píng)估,旨在用來評(píng)估未來50年內(nèi)氣候變化背景下北美地區(qū)物種脆弱性,是目前脆弱性評(píng)估中使用最多的一種方法[54,64,66]。CCVI指數(shù)由以下4部分組成：(1)預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)估區(qū)域在未來氣候變化下的直接暴露度(如溫度升高、濕度變化等指標(biāo))；(2)預(yù)測(cè)評(píng)估區(qū)域由氣候變引起的間接暴露度(如海平面上升)；(3)物種敏感性因素(如生理耐受幅度、種間關(guān)系等指標(biāo))；(4)物種對(duì)氣候變化的適應(yīng)(模型預(yù)測(cè)未來適宜生境變化等指標(biāo))。Tuberville等利用CCVI指數(shù)評(píng)估氣候變化對(duì)美國(guó)東南部沙丘生態(tài)區(qū)域117種兩棲和爬行類動(dòng)物的影響,結(jié)果表明該區(qū)域46.2%的物種將變得中等脆弱級(jí)別以上,只有14.5%的物種保持穩(wěn)定[34]；類似結(jié)果如棲息在加州內(nèi)華達(dá)山脈168種鳥類中有16個(gè)物種將變得中等脆弱,1個(gè)物種極度脆弱,生活在高山或水棲鳥類比其它生境中的鳥類更容易受到氣候變化的影響[67]；獸類如美洲獅(Pumaconcolor)不脆弱、凱鹿(Odocoileusvirginianusclavium)比較脆弱、岡比亞巨囊鼠(Cricetomysgambianus)中等脆弱[68]。目前,CCVI指數(shù)并沒有被廣泛應(yīng)用于脆弱性評(píng)估,主要原因在于該指數(shù)在研發(fā)時(shí)許多指標(biāo)(如暴露度等指數(shù)),主要針對(duì)棲息在北美地區(qū)的物種,研究區(qū)域受到限制,然而該指數(shù)提供了非常全面的評(píng)估指標(biāo),值得其他地區(qū)在評(píng)估物種脆弱性時(shí)借鑒。

3.3.2 CCVA評(píng)估框架

CCVA評(píng)估框架(Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, CCVA)由IUCN研發(fā),由3部分組成：(1)敏感性：ⅰ)生境專一性；ⅱ)生理耐受幅度；ⅲ)依賴環(huán)境誘因(如產(chǎn)卵日期、遷移時(shí)間等)；ⅳ)依賴種間相互作用；ⅴ)稀有性；(2)適應(yīng)能力：ⅰ)遷移能力；ⅱ)進(jìn)化能力；(3)暴露度：ⅰ)溫度變化；ⅱ)降雨量變化。綜合敏感性、暴露度和適應(yīng)能力,評(píng)估物種面對(duì)未來氣候變化的脆弱性[69- 70]。物種敏感性和暴露度較高,而適應(yīng)能力較低,其脆弱度較高[69]。Foden等采用CCVA框架對(duì)全球鳥類、兩棲類和珊瑚類進(jìn)行脆弱性評(píng)估,氣候變化將會(huì)導(dǎo)致全球6%—9%鳥類、11%—15%兩棲類和6%—9%珊瑚變得高度脆弱,且這些物種將會(huì)有滅絕的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)[71]。類似評(píng)估如非洲中東部28%兩棲類、20%鳥類、6%淡水魚類、30%獸類和42%爬行類,氣候變化將會(huì)導(dǎo)致這些物種變得非常脆弱,其中5種兩棲類、4種鳥類、5種淡水魚類和1種爬行類由于受到氣候變化的影響,將會(huì)有滅絕的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)[72]。CCVA評(píng)估方法比較容易掌握,但該方法針對(duì)全球物種,評(píng)估指標(biāo)要充分考慮全球普遍可行性,因此,可能會(huì)忽略一些很有價(jià)值的評(píng)估指標(biāo)。

3.3.3 EPA脆弱性評(píng)估框架

由美國(guó)環(huán)境保護(hù)局(Environmental Protection Agency, EPA)研發(fā)了一個(gè)框架來評(píng)估氣候變化背景下受威脅或?yàn)l危物種脆弱性[73]。EPA框架由4個(gè)模塊組成,模塊1由11個(gè)當(dāng)前面臨壓力指標(biāo)組成(如種群數(shù)量大小和分布范圍變化、生活繁殖史等非氣候變化影響因素)；模塊2由10個(gè)氣候變化影響指標(biāo)組成(如極值天氣)；模塊3整合模塊1和模塊2,最終評(píng)估瀕危物種面對(duì)未來氣候變化的脆弱性；模塊1和模塊2每個(gè)指標(biāo)都給出一個(gè)可信度評(píng)分,模塊4則綜合模塊1和模塊2可信度評(píng)分,評(píng)估最終結(jié)果的可信度。利用EPA框架評(píng)估金頰黑背林鶯(Dendroicachrysoparia)、斑點(diǎn)林鸮(StrixOccidentalislucida)、格雷厄姆山紅松鼠(TamiasciurusHudsonicusgrahamensis)等瀕危物種脆弱性[73- 74]；Moyle等通過修改部分EPA指標(biāo)評(píng)估美國(guó)加利福尼亞州本土和外來入侵魚類脆弱性,結(jié)果表明82%的本地魚類和19%外來入侵魚類被評(píng)估為較高脆弱,并且認(rèn)為氣候變化將會(huì)顯著地改變?cè)搮^(qū)域魚類群系[75]；Gardali等結(jié)合CCVI指數(shù)和EPA框架,對(duì)加利福尼亞州瀕危鳥類進(jìn)行脆弱性評(píng)估,然后整合該地區(qū)鳥類瀕危級(jí)別與脆弱程度,得出應(yīng)該針對(duì)該區(qū)域哪些鳥類采取優(yōu)先保護(hù)行動(dòng)[65]。EPA框架評(píng)估過程相對(duì)簡(jiǎn)單,主要針對(duì)于研究較為充分的瀕危物種,其評(píng)估結(jié)果可信度較高,但也正是因?yàn)樵u(píng)估對(duì)象僅僅為瀕危物種,導(dǎo)致其評(píng)估物種較少。

3.3.4 SVAS評(píng)估系統(tǒng)

SAVS評(píng)估系統(tǒng)(A System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species to Climate Change, SAVS)由美國(guó)國(guó)家林業(yè)局以問卷的形式調(diào)查氣候變化對(duì)陸生脊椎動(dòng)物的影響[76]。問卷表由氣候變化影響物種棲息地、生理、物候、以及種間關(guān)系4部分組成。該系統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)準(zhǔn)則：脆弱性高的物種,抵抗力較弱；脆弱低的物種,抵抗力較強(qiáng)[76]。研究人員利用SAVS對(duì)美國(guó)新墨西哥洲117種脊椎動(dòng)物評(píng)估,認(rèn)為未來氣候變化將會(huì)對(duì)該區(qū)域物種生境、物候、生理等方面產(chǎn)生強(qiáng)烈影響,許多物種未來將會(huì)變得高度脆弱,如索諾蘭叉角羚(AntilocapraAmericanasonoriensis)和沙漠龜(Gopherusmorafkai)等,種群數(shù)將會(huì)明顯下降[77- 78]。

3.3.5 SIVVA評(píng)估指數(shù)

由氣候變化引起的海平面上升對(duì)生物多樣性的間接影響同樣受到關(guān)注。Reece和Noss參照IUCN紅色名錄、NatureServe物種保護(hù)級(jí)別、以及CCVI等評(píng)估方法,研發(fā)出一套只適合評(píng)估氣候變化背景下沿海低洼區(qū)域物種脆弱度的指數(shù),稱之為SIVVA指數(shù)(Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, SIVVA)[79]。SIVVA指數(shù)增加了如經(jīng)濟(jì)價(jià)值、侵蝕度、鹽度等指標(biāo),使其更加符合棲息在沿海低洼區(qū)域物種的特點(diǎn)。目前,SIVVA評(píng)估方法僅用于佛羅里達(dá)洲低洼區(qū)野生動(dòng)植物脆弱性評(píng)估,Reece等對(duì)該區(qū)域300種動(dòng)植物進(jìn)行脆弱性評(píng)估,認(rèn)為氣候變化引起的海平面上升影響該區(qū)域的生物多樣性,應(yīng)該對(duì)邁阿密藍(lán)蝶(Cyclargusthomasibethunebakeri)、凱鹿等物種采取優(yōu)先保護(hù)措施[80]。同時(shí),相比于棲息在其它生境中的同類物種,棲息在佛羅里達(dá)洲礁島上的部分瀕危物種由于適應(yīng)能力較差和遷移限制,無法適應(yīng)氣候變化帶來影響,將會(huì)有滅絕的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),且認(rèn)為成功保護(hù)的可能性較低[81]。

4 脆弱性指數(shù)評(píng)估指標(biāo)

氣候變化影響涉及野生動(dòng)物的方方面面,采用哪些指標(biāo)來衡量其脆弱性還沒有一個(gè)明確的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)[34]。利用敏感性、暴露度和適應(yīng)能力作為評(píng)估指標(biāo),是所有方法的共同點(diǎn)[26,76]。然而,每種評(píng)估方法所選取的指標(biāo)存在一定的差異,本文總結(jié)CCVI指數(shù)、CCVA框架、EPA框架、以及SAVS系統(tǒng)所使用的指標(biāo)[30,64,71,73,76](表1)?？偨Y(jié)以上脆弱性指數(shù)評(píng)估方法,將評(píng)估指標(biāo)歸納為敏感性、暴露度、非氣候壓力和氣候模型預(yù)測(cè)4類。敏感性指標(biāo)主要包括生境專一、種間關(guān)系、遷移能力、物候、生理耐受幅度、基因多樣性、季節(jié)性遷移、種群動(dòng)態(tài)變化、生境變化、保護(hù)管理措施、食性多樣性等；物種對(duì)以上指標(biāo)較為敏感,則氣候變化將會(huì)對(duì)其產(chǎn)生較大影響,如生境高度專一的物種,如果其所依賴的生境受到氣候變化較大的影響,物種可能會(huì)面臨著較大的滅絕風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；又如高度依賴人類保護(hù)和管理的物種,其命運(yùn)比那些不依賴的物種更容易受到氣候變化的影響。暴露度主要包括溫度和降雨量變化、極值天氣、遷移障礙等指標(biāo)；評(píng)估區(qū)域如果未來溫度升高幅度較大,降雨和干旱模式不斷變化,可預(yù)見極端天氣事件頻繁發(fā)生,將會(huì)對(duì)該區(qū)域物種產(chǎn)生重大影響；如果人類工程或自然存在的障礙阻隔了物種的遷移路線,將會(huì)近一步加劇物種的脆弱性。非氣候因素,如評(píng)估區(qū)域當(dāng)前存在疾病傳播、環(huán)境污染、人為干擾等因素影響,同樣會(huì)加劇物種的脆弱性。氣候模型預(yù)測(cè)主要包括未來適宜生境變化、適宜生境的可獲得性、食物可獲得性等指標(biāo)；利用模型預(yù)測(cè)氣候變化對(duì)物種的影響,預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果為提出物種的適應(yīng)性保護(hù)對(duì)策提供參考依據(jù)。指標(biāo)的使用具有靈活性,針對(duì)不同區(qū)域、不同物種脆弱性評(píng)估,所選取的指標(biāo)也存在差異,在進(jìn)行評(píng)估時(shí),應(yīng)該篩選出符合該區(qū)域物種特點(diǎn)的評(píng)估指標(biāo)[34,65,75]。

脆弱性評(píng)估最大的挑戰(zhàn)在于指標(biāo)信息的可獲得性,只有少數(shù)受人類關(guān)注的物種研究較為充分,大部分物種的基礎(chǔ)信息匱乏,如物候變化、生理反應(yīng)、模型預(yù)測(cè)等,缺乏足夠的信息去完成全面的評(píng)估[26,34]。然而,氣候變化對(duì)生物多樣性的影響速度快,等收集完物種的全部信息,其生境可能已經(jīng)喪失,甚至存在瀕臨滅絕的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)[26,75]。因此,對(duì)于基礎(chǔ)信息有限的物種,評(píng)估其脆弱性時(shí)通常采取以下方法對(duì)相關(guān)信息進(jìn)行估計(jì)：(1)參照與其密切相關(guān)的同類物種信息[26]；(2)參考已發(fā)表的文獻(xiàn)、文學(xué)報(bào)道、實(shí)驗(yàn)或野外觀察數(shù)據(jù)[30,55,65]；(3)采用專家小組意見[73]；(4)一些信息如生理耐受幅度,可采用物種在評(píng)估區(qū)域已經(jīng)歷的歷史溫度或降雨量變化替代[64,82]；(5)部分信息如基因多樣性、生態(tài)學(xué)進(jìn)化等,只能不充分的理解[26,73]。CCVI指數(shù)在處理信息不足時(shí),如敏感性指標(biāo),只需滿足其中10條,評(píng)估結(jié)果就有效[64]；EPA框架中的指標(biāo)可以靈活使用,應(yīng)根據(jù)評(píng)估物種的實(shí)際情況出發(fā)選擇指標(biāo),或補(bǔ)充一些該框架沒有考慮到的指標(biāo)[75]。每種評(píng)估方法在對(duì)物種進(jìn)行評(píng)估時(shí),會(huì)考慮指標(biāo)信息的不確定性,對(duì)其獲取信息的可信度進(jìn)行評(píng)分,評(píng)估物種脆弱程度的可信度。值得注意的是,氣候變化是一個(gè)及其復(fù)雜的科學(xué)問題,其中的不確定性是客觀存在的,脆弱性評(píng)估并不需要考慮非常精確的定值,其評(píng)估結(jié)果代表物種近似的脆弱級(jí)別[75]。

表1 不同評(píng)估方法氣候變化脆弱性指標(biāo)

(√): CCVA框架定義為適應(yīng)能力

5 脆弱性評(píng)估結(jié)果的應(yīng)用

脆弱性評(píng)估主要目的是為了提出適應(yīng)性保護(hù)對(duì)策,減緩氣候變化給野生動(dòng)物帶來的不利影響[55]。本文將脆弱性評(píng)估結(jié)果的應(yīng)用其及相應(yīng)的保護(hù)對(duì)策總結(jié)為以下幾點(diǎn)：(1)明確物種脆弱性因素：在制定適應(yīng)性保護(hù)對(duì)策時(shí),必需掌握物種當(dāng)前面臨的壓力(即主要威脅因子),才能制定適宜的對(duì)策,可借鑒脆弱性評(píng)估結(jié)果,即物種面對(duì)當(dāng)前壓力的敏感性[28,73]。通過對(duì)物種脆弱性評(píng)估,使管理決策者能夠通過修改保護(hù)對(duì)策來適應(yīng)不斷變化的情況,采取如長(zhǎng)期系統(tǒng)監(jiān)測(cè)、減小人為干擾、加強(qiáng)外來物種入侵監(jiān)測(cè)等措施,并制定相關(guān)規(guī)劃、政策、制度和措施,來減小物種面臨的威脅[55,83-84]；(2)確定脆弱物種：脆弱性評(píng)估能很好的篩選出優(yōu)先保護(hù)物種,篩選出那些不能通過自身擴(kuò)散或進(jìn)化能力來適應(yīng)氣候變化的物種[78],這些物種需要借助人類的干預(yù)措施來消除氣候變化帶來的不利影響,如采取構(gòu)建生態(tài)廊道等適應(yīng)性保護(hù)對(duì)策,來減小脆弱物種交流及擴(kuò)散的阻礙[31]；(3)評(píng)估生境脆弱區(qū)：利用模型預(yù)測(cè)物種當(dāng)前和未來適宜生境變化,找出氣候變化會(huì)導(dǎo)致適宜生境喪失或降級(jí)的區(qū)域(即脆弱區(qū)域)[85],在脆弱區(qū)域采取生境恢復(fù)、加強(qiáng)管理以及長(zhǎng)期監(jiān)測(cè)等保護(hù)策施,防止生境喪失或降級(jí)[86- 87]；(4)尋找庇護(hù)所：利用模型預(yù)測(cè)物種當(dāng)前和未來適宜生境變化,找出適宜生境沒有發(fā)生變化的區(qū)域,或當(dāng)前不適宜生境在未來轉(zhuǎn)化為適宜生境的區(qū)域,這些區(qū)域?qū)?huì)成為野生動(dòng)物躲避未來氣候?yàn)?zāi)害的庇護(hù)所,需加強(qiáng)這些區(qū)域的監(jiān)督與管理,同時(shí)規(guī)劃野生動(dòng)物遷移到庇護(hù)所的生態(tài)廊道,減小其遷移阻障[88- 89]；(5)評(píng)估保護(hù)區(qū)成效性：利用空缺分析(Gap analysis)來評(píng)估已建立的自然保護(hù)區(qū)是否能夠覆蓋到物種當(dāng)前和未來適宜生境[2,90],采取調(diào)整保護(hù)區(qū)或建立新的保護(hù)區(qū)等措施,提高保護(hù)區(qū)間的聯(lián)通性和整體保護(hù)能力[91- 92]；(6)IUCN分類依據(jù)：氣候變化背景下物種脆弱性評(píng)估結(jié)果被IUCN作為在紅色名錄中受威脅等級(jí)分類依據(jù),將有助于評(píng)估物種受到國(guó)際社會(huì)的關(guān)注,對(duì)物種的保護(hù)工作起到一定的促進(jìn)和推動(dòng)作用[93]。

6 結(jié)語(yǔ)

由于氣候變化的不確定性,以及人類對(duì)野生動(dòng)物認(rèn)知的局限性,很多問題還無法完全明白,但大量證據(jù)都表明氣候變化確實(shí)在發(fā)生,尤其是近年來極端氣候事件頻繁發(fā)生[94],迫切需要探尋氣候變化與野生動(dòng)物的關(guān)系,以便更好的應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化帶來的不利影響,緩解氣候變化給野生動(dòng)物帶來的危害[95- 96]。我國(guó)動(dòng)物資源非常豐富,地域分布廣泛,氣候變化正影響著我國(guó)野生動(dòng)物是毋庸置疑的[97- 98],如已觀察到氣候變暖加速我國(guó)鳥類區(qū)系變化[99]、改變昆蟲類和兩棲類春季和秋季物候[100]、可能誘導(dǎo)鼠災(zāi)暴發(fā)[101- 102]、導(dǎo)致物種局部消失[103]。我國(guó)開展氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估工作主要利用模型測(cè)物種未來適宜生境的變化,且大部分研究對(duì)象針對(duì)單一物種,如大熊貓[49- 50]、雪豹[89]、野駱駝(Camelusferus)[104]、川金絲猴(Rhinopithecusroxellana)[105]、黑臉琵鷺(Plataleaminor)[106]、黑頭噪鴉(Perisoreusinternigrans)[107]、四川山鷓鴣(Arborophilarufipectus)[108]等,少數(shù)研究針對(duì)多個(gè)物種,如鳥類[96]、兩棲類[109]、有蹄類[110]。雖然模型預(yù)測(cè)能準(zhǔn)確評(píng)估出物種在哪些區(qū)域脆弱,但僅僅局限于大尺度上的影響(如氣候、地形等非生物因子),而忽略了在小尺度上的影響(如物種間相互作用、耐受范圍、生活史等生物因子),而往往局部的氣候?yàn)?zāi)害帶來的影響可能更加深遠(yuǎn)[111-112]。因此,在對(duì)物種進(jìn)行脆弱性評(píng)估時(shí),建議將氣候變化、物種自身的生物學(xué)特性以及模型預(yù)測(cè)等信息進(jìn)行綜合考慮,有助于充分認(rèn)識(shí)氣候變化對(duì)野生動(dòng)物的影響,為野生動(dòng)物適應(yīng)氣候變化保護(hù)對(duì)策的制定提供更加合理的科學(xué)依據(jù)。

總體來講,我國(guó)在開展氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估這方面的研究相對(duì)較少,在制定野生動(dòng)物保護(hù)對(duì)策時(shí),大多數(shù)僅僅只考慮物種當(dāng)前面臨的壓力,忽略氣候變化未來可能帶來的影響,適應(yīng)氣候變化對(duì)策也同樣僅局限于概念,沒有形成有效的技術(shù)[23]?；诖?建議我國(guó)科研人員和管理決策者從以下幾方面進(jìn)一步研究,提出長(zhǎng)期有效的適應(yīng)性保護(hù)對(duì)策來減小氣候變化對(duì)野生動(dòng)物的危害。第一,建立長(zhǎng)期系統(tǒng)的野生動(dòng)物監(jiān)測(cè)計(jì)劃(如種群動(dòng)態(tài)、物候、地理分布范圍等),為野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估工作提供數(shù)據(jù)支持；第二,基于國(guó)內(nèi)當(dāng)前對(duì)野生動(dòng)物基礎(chǔ)信息的了解程度,還無法建立起像北美自然服務(wù)組織那樣如此全面的生物多樣性數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),但可以嘗試以自然保護(hù)區(qū)尺度來建立數(shù)據(jù)平臺(tái),并實(shí)現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)共享；第三,加強(qiáng)氣候變化監(jiān)測(cè)研究,提高氣候變化預(yù)測(cè)能力,并建立預(yù)防極端氣候?yàn)?zāi)害對(duì)野生動(dòng)物影響的機(jī)制；第四,學(xué)習(xí)和引進(jìn)新的脆弱性評(píng)估方法,建立氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估的指標(biāo)體系,能有效地評(píng)估未來氣候變化情景下我國(guó)野生動(dòng)物的脆弱程度；第五,開展野生動(dòng)物對(duì)氣候變化適應(yīng)過程和能力分析,如物種遷移能力和進(jìn)化能力,為適應(yīng)性保護(hù)對(duì)策提供理論和技術(shù)支持；第六,完善野生動(dòng)物的適應(yīng)性管理方式,加強(qiáng)宣傳教育,減少人為因素加劇氣候變化給野生動(dòng)物帶來的危害。

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Overviewofmethodsforassessingthevulnerabilityofwildlifetoclimatechange

LI Jia, LIU Fang, ZHANG Yu, XUE Yadong, LI Diqiang*

InstituteofForestryEcology,EnvironmentandProtection,ChineseAcademyofForestry,KeyLaboratoryofForestEcologyandEnvironmentofStateForestryAdministration,Beijing100091,China

In order to mitigate the widely recognized and harmful impacts of climate change on wildlife, it is imperative to assess the vulnerability of species to future climate change and to adopt adaptive conservation strategies. Assessments of climate change vulnerability make two essential contributions to adaptation planning, including the identification of species that are likely to be most strongly affected by climate change and the identification of underlying mechanisms that make these species vulnerable. Here, we define climate change vulnerability as the extent to which wildlife species will be affected by climate change, considering exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, which we respectively define as extrinsic factors that will result from climate change (e.g., increasing temperature and precipitation and extreme weather), intrinsic species traits (e.g., biotic interactions and physiological tolerances), and the degree to which species are able to reduce or avoid the adverse effects of climate change through dispersal and plastic ecological or evolutionary responses. In this review, we describe the different methods used for assessing the vulnerability of wildlife to climate change, as well as the corresponding data requirements, and then address the uncertainty factors in each method and describe the importance of vulnerability assessments in designing adaptive climate change-related conservation strategies. The purpose of this review is to provide a reference for assessing the vulnerability of wildlife to climate change in China.

climate change; vulnerability; exposure; sensitivity; adaptation conservation strategies

國(guó)家科技支撐計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2013BAC09B02)；自然保護(hù)區(qū)生物標(biāo)本資源共享子平臺(tái)項(xiàng)目(2005DKA21404)

2016- 07- 30; < class="emphasis_bold">網(wǎng)絡(luò)出版日期

日期:2017- 06- 01

*通訊作者Corresponding author.E-mail: lidq@caf.ac.cn

10.5846/stxb201607301564

李佳, 劉芳, 張宇, 薛亞東, 李迪強(qiáng).氣候變化背景下野生動(dòng)物脆弱性評(píng)估方法研究進(jìn)展.生態(tài)學(xué)報(bào),2017,37(20):6656- 6667.

Li J, Liu F, Zhang Y, Xue Y D, Li D Q.Overview of methods for assessing the vulnerability of wildlife to climate change.Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(20):6656- 6667.