未來(lái)十年世界將變成什么樣？

"In the next 10 years， the earliest adopter of new technology might just be your grandmother.

"Of all the fields in which dramatic changes might be seen in the next decade， the field of home automation is the one poised2） to explode. For most of us， the ability to turn on our ovens from our phones or watch a robot clean our floors is little more than a novelty3） to impress our neighbors and friends. To the elderly or infirm4）， however， it could mean the difference between disability and independence.

"In the next decade， we&apos；re going to see a revolution in automated assisted living. Imagine a simple rolling robot that comes when you call， presenting you with a video screen that reminds you of your daily schedule. Totally voice-activated， it can control your lights and door locks， oven and water temperature. It keeps track of the food in the house and can order more when necessary. It can connect you with family and friends through video conferencing， or simply read you a book. It gives you your medicine when you need it， keeps track of where you left your glasses， and—through wearable health monitors—can call your family or your doctor if you need urgent medical help.

"The technology is nearly ready， and immense government investment will be inevitable in the coming years. Those hesitant to try new things will be won over5） when it gives them the power to maintain their independence. Ten years from now， when you visit your parents or grandparents， they may very well have better technology than you do！"

加拿大著名科幻小說(shuō)作家科里·多克托羅（Cory Doctorow）在試圖猜測(cè)未來(lái)世界的模樣時(shí)發(fā)表了一個(gè)“免責(zé)聲明”：“科幻小說(shuō)家們?cè)陬A(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)方面糟糕透了?！北M管如此，這并不能阻止我們?nèi)ヒ揽克麄兊南胂罅图?xì)致的深思熟慮來(lái)暢想未來(lái)。未來(lái)十年，

世界將變成什么樣子？一起來(lái)聽(tīng)聽(tīng)五位科幻小說(shuō)家是怎么說(shuō)的吧。

“在下一個(gè)十年中，最先使用新科技的人可能就是你的奶奶。

“在所有可能會(huì)在未來(lái)十年發(fā)生巨變的領(lǐng)域里，家居生活自動(dòng)化領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)做好迅猛發(fā)展的準(zhǔn)備了。對(duì)我們當(dāng)中的大多數(shù)人而言，通過(guò)手機(jī)啟動(dòng)微波爐或者看著機(jī)器人給我們掃地最多不過(guò)是向鄰居和朋友炫耀的一種新奇玩意兒而已。不過(guò)，對(duì)于年老體弱者來(lái)說(shuō)，這卻可能意味著殘障和獨(dú)立之間的區(qū)別。

“在下一個(gè)十年里，我們會(huì)目睹自動(dòng)化輔助生活這一領(lǐng)域的重大變革。想象一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的可滾動(dòng)機(jī)器人，隨叫隨到，給你呈上一個(gè)電子屏，提醒你每一天的日程安排。它完全是聲控的，可以控制你家的照明、門(mén)鎖、微波爐以及水溫。它監(jiān)測(cè)屋內(nèi)食物的情況，如有必要，還能下訂單購(gòu)買(mǎi)更多的食物。它可以通過(guò)視頻會(huì)議讓你和家人、朋友保持聯(lián)系，或者就只是給你讀一本書(shū)。它會(huì)在你需要服藥時(shí)把藥拿給你，記錄你之前把眼鏡放在了哪里，還可以在你需要緊急醫(yī)療救助時(shí)通過(guò)可穿戴健康監(jiān)測(cè)設(shè)備聯(lián)系你的家人或醫(yī)生。

“現(xiàn)在的科技已經(jīng)基本可以實(shí)現(xiàn)上述功能了，在接下來(lái)的幾年里，政府必然會(huì)投入巨資。那些不愿嘗試新鮮事物的人在新科技讓他們有能力保持獨(dú)立后，也會(huì)被爭(zhēng)取過(guò)來(lái)的。從現(xiàn)在開(kāi)始的十年之后，當(dāng)你再去探望你的父母或是祖父母時(shí)，他們擁有的高科技設(shè)備很可能比你的還高級(jí)呢！”

2

Well be seeing less need for people to own individual “stuff”.

（我們將會(huì)看到人們對(duì)擁有個(gè)人“物品”的需求越來(lái)越小。）

—Elizabeth Bear， author of Karen Memory （《凱倫的記憶》的作者伊麗莎白·貝爾）

“我覺(jué)得未來(lái)十年，還有更久遠(yuǎn)的以后，最大的趨勢(shì)之一也正是我們對(duì)后稀缺經(jīng)濟(jì)最大的希望之一。隨著科技使得共享實(shí)體物品以及虛擬物品變得越來(lái)越可行，我們將會(huì)看到人們對(duì)擁有個(gè)人‘物品的需求越來(lái)越小，而各個(gè)群體的人共同分期償還某樣物品花銷(xiāo)的機(jī)會(huì)越來(lái)越多。它本質(zhì)上相當(dāng)于通過(guò)租借、合作經(jīng)營(yíng)等方式讓人更多地共享一件物品。如果你一周需要使用三小時(shí)的割草機(jī)，而如果你可以和鄰居們一起去買(mǎi)幾臺(tái)割草機(jī)大家共用；又或者如果某個(gè)企業(yè)可以成立類(lèi)似工具共享會(huì)的一個(gè)組織，讓你可以在申請(qǐng)之后借用你所需要的東西，那么基本上，擁有自己的割草機(jī)就真不是那么有意義了。endprint

“隨著一個(gè)個(gè)共享自行車(chē)和共享汽車(chē)平臺(tái)的誕生，我們?cè)诔鞘兄行囊呀?jīng)可以看到很多這類(lèi)共享經(jīng)濟(jì)形式了。你甚至還可以注冊(cè)使用共享衣櫥的平臺(tái)。隨著追蹤和共享實(shí)用物品的技術(shù)不斷進(jìn)步，我期待它也能向人口不那么稠密的地區(qū)滲透?！?/p>

3

Connected health care will occur at a whole new level.

（互聯(lián)網(wǎng)醫(yī)療保健將會(huì)達(dá)到一個(gè)全新的高度。）

—Brenda Cooper， author of Edge of Dark （《黑暗的邊緣》的作者布倫達(dá)·庫(kù)珀）

"Connected health care will occur at a whole new level. When I wake up， I&apos；ll feed the dog special food designed for her. While it&apos；s hydrating11）， I&apos；ll check my own readouts12） from my wrist or from a small screen on the fridge. That will tell me which supplements to take that morning， and in what dosages13）. I&apos；ll measure that out and have it with a tall glass of cool water before my morning coffee. After that， the dogs and I will run， and I&apos；ll be able to use my connected sunglasses to keep track of both of our heart rates. When we arrive at the park， I&apos；ll turn everything off and enjoy some long moments of meditation14） while I throw a Frisbee15） for the dog， and then we&apos；ll turn back on and check in for advice about whether to run or walk back home.

"Later that morning， I&apos；ll get an alert that a cancer marker has shown back up in my bloodstream， and a special test will be ordered right there. I&apos；ll feel a light prick16） in my wrist. An hour later the results will go into a machine and queue up for an analytics run. The line will be a few hours long， so I&apos；ll try and ignore my fear， but fail hard enough that I fall down the last stair to my office， and have to catch myself17）. After standing still for a moment and catching my breath， I&apos；ll be told I&apos；m okay， and so I&apos；ll go to work. By lunch， my analytic results will be available and I&apos；ll learn that there is no statistical reason for worry， but that a note had been sent to my personal diagnostics machinery to add a more refined18） test and that two foods have been removed from my recommended diet."

“互聯(lián)網(wǎng)醫(yī)療保健將會(huì)達(dá)到一個(gè)全新的高度。我睡醒后會(huì)給狗狗喂專(zhuān)門(mén)為她定制的食物吃。當(dāng)狗糧在水中溶解時(shí)，我將從我的手腕或者冰箱的小屏幕上查看我自己的各項(xiàng)身體指標(biāo)。它們會(huì)告訴我那天早上應(yīng)該補(bǔ)充哪些物質(zhì)以及它們的劑量。我會(huì)按照要求取出所需的量，就著一大杯冰水把它吃掉，然后再喝我的晨間咖啡。之后，我會(huì)帶著狗狗們一起去跑步，我可以用我的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)太陽(yáng)鏡了解我們的心率。我們到達(dá)公園后，我會(huì)關(guān)掉所有設(shè)備，扔個(gè)飛盤(pán)給狗追，享受長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)的冥想時(shí)刻。接著我們會(huì)打開(kāi)設(shè)備，查看一下它是建議我們跑步回家還是走路回家。

“那天早上晚些時(shí)候，我會(huì)收到一條提示，說(shuō)一個(gè)癌癥標(biāo)志物重新出現(xiàn)在了我的血液中，馬上會(huì)安排一項(xiàng)特別的化驗(yàn)。我會(huì)感覺(jué)手腕上有輕微的刺痛感。一小時(shí)之后，化驗(yàn)結(jié)果會(huì)傳到一臺(tái)機(jī)器中，然后排隊(duì)等待分析。等待分析要排幾個(gè)小時(shí)的隊(duì)，所以我將試著忽略自己的恐懼，但我卻慘敗了——我摔倒在去辦公室的最后一級(jí)臺(tái)階上，不得不停下腳步。我一動(dòng)不動(dòng)地站了一會(huì)兒，緩了幾口氣，然后告訴自己我很好，所以現(xiàn)在要去工作了。等到吃午餐時(shí)，我的分析結(jié)果將會(huì)送到，我會(huì)得知從化驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看沒(méi)有什么需要擔(dān)心的，但是一條記錄已經(jīng)發(fā)送到我的個(gè)人診斷機(jī)上，以增加一項(xiàng)更加細(xì)致的檢查；另外，有兩種食物已經(jīng)從給我推薦的食譜里被拿掉了?！?/p>

"It is not necessary for AI to pass the Turing Test20） to have a significant impact on the labor market. News organizations are already benefitting from automated analysis and story generation. Since many office jobs involve not much more than recasting21） numbers and charts in formulaic22） prose23）， it&apos；s not hard to imagine that in 10 years automation will make more progress in content generation and replace much of the basic writing and analysis we rely on humans to do today.endprint

"Similarly， automation will transform the transportation industry. Even if most car owners prefer to continue to drive their own vehicles for psychological reasons， the trucking industry will adopt automated vehicles to improve safety， increase efficiency （automated cars don&apos；t have drivers who need to sleep）， and reduce costs."

4

AI19） will have a significant impact on the labor market.

（人工智能將對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生重大影響。）

—Ken Liu， author of The Grace of Kings （《國(guó)王的恩典》的作者劉宇昆）

“在接下來(lái)的十年里，當(dāng)談到科技時(shí)，我們會(huì)看到人類(lèi)的分歧越來(lái)越大。社會(huì)中的一部分人會(huì)變得越來(lái)越依賴(lài)電腦等電子設(shè)備，甚至還會(huì)給自己的孩子植入微芯片，在自己的眼球里裝入電話；另一部分人則會(huì)完全避免使用科技，并呼吁在公共場(chǎng)所設(shè)置無(wú)電話區(qū)、在餐廳里設(shè)置無(wú)煙區(qū)。在這十年快要過(guò)去時(shí)，有人會(huì)嘗試與機(jī)器人結(jié)婚。各個(gè)網(wǎng)站將不得不尋求一個(gè)可持續(xù)的盈利模式來(lái)向其作者支付稿酬。我兒子會(huì)長(zhǎng)成翩翩少年。我將需要戴老花鏡來(lái)閱讀所有那些肯定會(huì)出版的精彩小說(shuō)?！?/p>

“人工智能不一定要在通過(guò)圖靈測(cè)試后才會(huì)對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生重大影響。新聞機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)從自動(dòng)化分析和生成報(bào)道中受益。鑒于許多辦公室工作所涉及的內(nèi)容不外乎是把數(shù)字和表格改寫(xiě)為老生常談的乏味文章，所以不難想象在十年之后，自動(dòng)化技術(shù)會(huì)在內(nèi)容生產(chǎn)方面取得更大的進(jìn)步，并取代許多今天要依靠人類(lèi)來(lái)完成的基礎(chǔ)寫(xiě)作和分析類(lèi)工作。

“同樣地，自動(dòng)化技術(shù)還將徹底改變運(yùn)輸業(yè)。即使大多數(shù)車(chē)主出于心理上的原因仍然選擇駕駛自己的汽車(chē)出行，貨車(chē)運(yùn)輸業(yè)將會(huì)使用自動(dòng)駕駛的車(chē)輛，以增加安全性、提高效率（自動(dòng)駕駛車(chē)輛可沒(méi)有需要睡覺(jué)的人類(lèi)司機(jī)），并降低成本?！?/p>

5

We will see a deeper bifurcation24） when it comes to technology. （當(dāng)談到科技時(shí)，我們會(huì)看到人類(lèi)的分歧越來(lái)越大。）

—Edan Lepucki， author of California （《加利福尼亞》的作者伊丹·勒普基）

"Over the next 10 years， we will see a deeper bifurcation when it comes to technology. One segment of the society will become more and more reliant on computers and such， going so far as to embed microchips in their children and phones in their own eyeballs； others will avoid technology altogether and will advocate for no-phone-use zones in public areas and non-smoking sections at restaurants. By the end of the decade， someone will try to marry a robot. Websites will be forced to find a sustainable revenue model for paying their writers. My son will be a teenager. I will need reading glasses to read all the terrific novels that are sure to be published."endprint