New Developments in Japan-Vietnam Partnership: Impetus and Prospects

Zhang Jiye & Niu Jusheng

New Developments in Japan-Vietnam Partnership: Impetus and Prospects

Zhang Jiye & Niu Jusheng

The dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region have been undergoing complex changes. As Japan is strengthening its strategic involvement in regional affairs, and Vietnam is advancing its domestic reforms and external balancing, Japan-Vietnam relations have experienced remarkable progress. It is thus worth reviewing the developments in Japan-Vietnam relations to better understand this evolving aspect of the strategic situation in China’s neighborhood and respective considerations of regional countries’ policies.

New Developments in Japan-Vietnam Relations

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1973, bilateral relationship between Japan and Vietnam has experienced overall development despite some twists and turns, which can be separated into three stages. In the first stage, from establishing diplomatic relations to 1979, the bilateral relations were mainly based on Japan’s aid to Vietnam. After the end of the Vietnam War and the United States’ withdrawal from Vietnam, Japan started to promote the Fukuda Doctrine and expand its influence in Southeast Asia. For Vietnam, Japan’s policy focus was to normalize and push forward the bilateral relations by means of aid. The second stage was from 1979 to 1992,when the bilateral relations seriously deteriorated as Japan joined the US to impose sanctions on Vietnam because of Vietnam’s alliance with the Soviet Union and its invasion of Cambodia. The third stage started in 1992. With the end of the Cold War and the resolution of the Cambodia issue, Japan lifted its sanctions against Vietnam in 1992 and resumed its assistance to Vietnam, normalizing bilateral relations. In 2009, the two countries formally agreed to establish a strategic partnership. Since then, especially since Shinzo Abe became Japan’s Prime Minister for the second time in 2012, relations between the two countries have embarked on a fast track, expanding and deepening cooperation in diplomacy, security, economy, and people-to-people exchange, which demonstrates a comprehensive, in-depth and strategic feature.

Strengthening strategic collaboration in diplomatic area

For a long time, ties between Japan and Vietnam mainly relied on economic, social and cultural cooperation. In recent years, the two countries have expanded their cooperation in diplomacy and security, which has greatly enriched the strategic connotations of their relations. In January 2013, Vietnam was the destination for Abe’s first foreign visit after taking office for the second time. In March 2014, then Vietnamese President Truong Tan Sang visited Japan, and bilateral ties was upgraded from a strategic partnership to an “Extensive Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity in Asia.” In September 2015, Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), visited Japan for the first time, and the two sides issued the Joint Vision Statement on Japan-Vietnam Relations, which explored the potential for cooperation from a long-term strategic perspective. After the leadership transition at the 12th CPV National Congress, the Japanese government has actively sought interaction with the new Vietnamese leaders. Vietnam’s new Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc was invited to attend the Outreach Meeting of the G7 Ise-Shima Summit in May 2016. Atthe Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM) and the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’Meeting held in July the same year, the Japanese and Vietnamese leaders coordinated their positions on the so-called China-Philippines arbitration on the South China Sea and sought to pressure China. The two sides also reached consensus on increasing Japanese aid to Vietnam as soon as possible to enhance Vietnam’s maritime law enforcement capabilities.

The strategic cooperation between Japan and Vietnam is mainly focused on three types of issues: First, the South China Sea issue. The issue has become an important topic discussed at every meeting between leaders of the two countries. Japan and Vietnam have jointly pushed the internationalization of the South China Sea issue. On multilateral occasions, such as the series of ASEAN meetings and the Japan-Mekong Summit, the two sides have insisted on solving the issue by international maritime law to construct a so-called rules-based maritime order. Second, Greater Mekong Subregion integration and development issues. In 2007, Japan established the Japan-Mekong Region Partnership Program with Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam. Vietnam became an important partner of Japan, with the two sides strengthening cooperation to promote regional economic integration, interconnectivity and sustainable development. Third, issues of common concern. Vietnam backs Japan in playing a more active role in international and regional affairs and becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Japan reciprocates by supporting Vietnam in gaining more international support in its territorial disputes with China, developing relations with the West and tackling climate change.

Expanding security cooperation

Japan’s guided-missile destroyers Ariake and Setogiri from the Maritime Self-Defense Force made a port call at Vietnam’s Cam Ranh Bay on April 12, 2016, the first time since the end of World War II, signifying the two nations’ defense cooperation. (Kyodo)

First, the mechanism of bilateral security cooperation is constantly improving. In October 2011, the two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding on defense cooperation, which substantively kicked off the process of security cooperation between the two countries. The MOU included high-level defense exchanges, naval goodwill visits, cooperation in military aviation and air defense, and personnel training; it also provided for cooperation in areas like search and rescue, disaster relief and humanitarian assistance, counterterrorism, and peacekeeping, among others.1Саrl Тhауеr, “Viеtnаm’s Ехtеnsivе Strаtеgiс Раrtnеrshiр with Jараn,” Thе Diрlоmаt, Осtоbеr 14, 2014, httр://thеdiрlоmаt.соm/2014/10/viеtnаms-ехtеnsivе-strаtеgiс-раrtnеrshiр-with-jараn.In 2014, Japan and Vietnam upgraded their strategic partnership, with the aim of making their relations more “extensive”by continuing “working closely for the effective implementation of the Bilateral Defense Cooperation and Exchanges signed in 2011.”2Мinistrу оf Fоrеign Аffаirs оf Jараn, “Jараn-Viеtnаm Jоint Stаtеmеnt оn thе Еstаblishmеnt оf Ехtеnsivе Strаtеgiс Раrtnеrshiр fоr Реасе аnd Рrоsреritу in Аsiа,” Маrсh 15, 2014, рр.1-2, httр://www.mоfа.gо.jр/ filеs/000031617.рdf.During the visit of Nguyen Phu Trong to Japan in 2015, Japan and Vietnam put“strengthening security and defense cooperation” into the JointVision Statement on Japan-Vietnam Relations. The two sides also signed the Memorandum on Cooperation between Coast Guard Agencies and the Memorandum of Cooperation on UN Peacekeeping Operation.3Мinistrу оf Fоrеign Аffаirs оf Jараn, “Jоint Visiоn Stаtеmеnt оn Jараn-Viеtnаm Rеlаtiоns,” Sерtеmbеr 15, 2015, рр.3-4, httр://www.mоfа.gо.jр/filеs/000099707.рdf.So far, Japan and Vietnam have set up three major mechanisms of strategic partnership dialogue, defense policy dialogue, and security affairs dialogue, which are respectively hosted by their Deputy Foreign Ministers, Deputy Defense Ministers, and Ministers in charge of public security. The dialogues involve multiple government agencies on foreign affairs, national defense, domestic security, and intelligence.

Second, prioritizing maritime security and international peacekeeping in their practical cooperation. In terms of maritime security, Japan has backed Vietnam’s maritime capacity building, and reinforced its military presence in the South China Sea on the strength of its cooperation with Vietnam. In August 2014, the Abe government announced it would spend $4 million in providing six second-hand maritime patrol ships to Vietnam. In September 2015, Japan declared it would provide two additional vessels to Vietnam.4РrаshаnthРаrаmеswаrаn, “Jараn Рlеdgеs Nеw Vеssеls, Lоаns tо Viеtnаm in Вооst tо Strаtеgiс Раrtnеrshiр,” Thе Diрlоmаt, Sерtеmbеr 16, 2015, httр://thеdiрlоmаt.соm/2015/09/jараn-рlеdgеs-nеwvеssеls-lоаns-tо-viеtnаm-in-bооst-tо-strаtеgiс-раrtnеrshiр.In May 2016, when meeting with the Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Abe stated that “a study on the provision of newly-built vessels will be undertaken with a sense of urgency.”5Мinistrу оf Fоrеign Аffаirs оf Jараn, “Jараn-Viеtnаm Summit Мееting,” Мау 28, 2016, httр://www. mоfа.gо.jр/s_sа/sеа1/vn/раgе4е_000459.html.In addition to hardware, Japan has also provided personnel training and other software support. From 2012 to 2015, Japan has consecutively held seminars on underwater medicine in Vietnam.6Мinistrуоf Dеfеnsеоf Jараn, Dеfеnsеоf Jараn 2015,р.277, httр://www.mоd.gо.jр/е/рubl/w_ рареr/2015.html.Considering that Vietnam had purchased some advanced submarines from Russia but lacked relevant support for their use, the training was conducive to enhancing Vietnam’s maritime capacity. Thetwo countries have also strengthened cooperation in ship visits, joint exercises, and intelligence sharing. In February 2016, the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force and two P-3C patrol aircraft visited Vietnam and participated in the joint military exercise in Da Nang.7“Jараn аnd Viеtnаm Ехеrсising in Sоuth Сhinа Sеа tо ‘Моnitоr Сhinа’: Jараnеsе Меdiа,” Саnkао Xiаоxi, Fеbruаrу 19, 2016, httр://www.саnkаохiаохi.соm/wоrld/20160219/1079996.shtml.In addition, Japan intends to conclude an agreement with Vietnam on sharing and protecting classified defense information, which would allow Japan to provide intelligence and sell advanced military equipment to Vietnam.8“Jараn Еаgеr fоr Sесuritу Аgrееmеnts with Рhiliррinеs, Viеtnаm,” Nikkеi Аsiаn Rеviеw, Jаnuаrу 15, 2016, httр://аsiа.nikkеi.соm/Роl(xiāng)itiсs-Есоnоmу/Intеrnаtiоnаl-Rеlаtiоns/Jараn-еаgеr-fоr-sесuritуаgrееmеnts-with-Рhiliррinеs-Viеtnаm.In terms of international peacekeeping, Japan and Vietnam have signed a memorandum of cooperation whereby Japan will support Vietnam in personnel training, equipment supply and medicine.

Japan and Vietnam, with a view to achieving seamless synergy of their economies and strategies, have consolidated their cooperation in aid and boosted their trade and investment ties.

Deepening economic integration

Since 2006, Japan has been the largest donator in its official aid to Vietnam, accounting for 30% of the aid received by the country. From 1992 to 2011, Japan provided a cumulative official aid of US$20 billion to Vietnam.9Тhuу Тhi Dо, “Lосаting Viеtnаm-Jараn’s Strаtеgiс Раrtnеrshiр in thе Сhаnging Еаst Аsiаn Роl(xiāng)itiсаl Lаndsсаре,” р.19, httр://www2.jiiа.оr.jр/рdf/fеllоw_rероrt/140711_Viеtnаm-Jараn_Strаtеgiс_Раrtnеrshiр-Finаl_рареr_Тhuу_Тhi_Dо.рdf.In terms of investment, Japan became the second largest source of overseas investment in Vietnam in 2015, with stock investment of US$38.9 billion.10Gеnеrаl Stаtistiсs Оffiсе оf Viеtnаm, Stаtistiсаl Yеаrbооk оf Viеtnаm 2015, р.235, httр://www.gsо.gоv. vn/dеfаult_еn.аsрх?tаbid=515&idmid=5&ItеmID=16052.As for trade, the value of Japan’s exports to Vietnam and imports from Vietnam reached US$14.3 billion and US$14.1 billion respectively in 2015, and Japan is now Vietnam’s fifth largest exportmarket and the fourth largest source of imports.11Stаtistiсаl Yеаrbооk оf Viеtnаm 2015, рр.537-538.The two countries, with a view to achieving seamless synergy of their economies and strategies, have consolidated their cooperation in aid and boosted their trade and investment ties. Thus the bilateral economic ties has transcended the economic realm to have profound strategic implications.

Promoting cultural and people-to-people exchanges

Japan has long highlighted and invested huge capital in promoting cultural and people-to-people exchanges with Vietnam. The two countries have maintained close relations in this respect, and the high level of mutual understanding between people of the two countries has become an important strategic basis for long-term and steady development of Japan-Vietnam relations. Japan has recently been keen on exploring potential for further developing cultural and social relations with Vietnam, so as to foster a sense of closeness between people from the two sides, enhance its cultural and social appeal to Vietnamese people, and thus consolidate the strategic foundation for bilateral relations.

Dynamics for Growing Bilateral Relations

China’s rapid development and the United States’ rebalancing strategy in the Asia-Pacific have given rise to major-power rivalry and the heating up of regional disputes over territorial sovereignty and maritime rights, leading to remarkable change in regional power structure and security environment. In this context, Japan and Vietnam have adjusted their domestic and foreign strategies, and their mutual demand for support is growing, giving strong impetus to the development of bilateral relations.

Dynamics from the Japan side

The Abe government is endeavoring to build Japan into a majorpower. Domestically, it has implemented “Abenomics” in a bid to revitalize the Japanese economy and is pushing for constitutional amendment to remove the institutional barriers to becoming a military power. Externally, the Abe government pursues the following three strategies: shaping the international environment in favor of Japan’s rise to a major power, balancing China’s influence, and optimizing and diversifying its overseas trade and investment layout. The Abe government has wooed Vietnam because Vietnam is believed to be an important partner for Japan to achieve these goals.

Shaping favorable international environment. In pursuing its dream of being a major power, Japan gives priority to strengthening the US-Japan alliance, developing partnerships with ASEAN countries, enhancing its overseas soft power, and expanding its sea power. Seizing the opportunity of the South China Sea issue, Japan has been providing assistance to Vietnam in capacity building, reinforcing its maritime military presence, and shaping its image as an important supplier of public goods in international security and substantively pushing the military to“go global.” As Vietnam and the United States have also been getting closer in recent years, the strengthened cooperation between Japan and Vietnam especially in the areas of maritime security and sustainable development, which have convergences with US-Vietnam cooperation, has a positive effect on deepening the US-Japan alliance and expanding it to Southeast Asia. In its relations with ASEAN, Japan regards ASEAN countries as important supporters in its bid for major power status. By improving ties with regional countries, it is attempting to hedge against the risks of over-reliance on the United States and expanding its strategic space for its pursuit of major power status. Japan has gained Vietnam’s support for this pursuit, and is now deepening strategic cooperation with ASEAN countries

By improving ties with regional countries, Japan is attempting to hedge against the risks of over-reliance on the United States and expanding its strategic space for its pursuit of major power status.using Vietnam as a bridge.

In terms of aid, Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries are in fact successful examples for Japan’s post-war ODA policy. As Vietnam faces many challenges in realizing sustainable development, Japan has shown its strengths by expanding assistance to Vietnam, which has further enhanced its soft power within the region.

With regard to expanding sea power, the Abe government is committed to maintaining a maritime order in the Asia-Pacific based on international law, which is in fact dominated by the United States and Japan, to ensure the security of “sea lanes of communication, stretching from the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden to the surrounding waters of Japan, passing through the Indian Ocean, the Straits of Malacca, and the South China Sea.”12Рrimе Мinistеr оf Jараn аnd Нis Саbinеt, Nаtiоnаl Sесuritу Strаtеgу, Dесеmbеr 17, 2013, р.17. .For Japan, 95% of its energy imports and 40% of its maritime trade pass through the South China Sea.13Nоbuhirо Аizаwа, “Jараn’s Strаtеgу tоwаrd Sоuthеаst Аsiа аnd thе Jараn-U.S. Аlliаnсе,” СSIS Rероrt,Арril 2014,р.5, httр://сsis.оrg/filеs/рubliсаtiоn/140422_Аizаwа_JараnsStrаtеgуSоuthеаstАsiа. рdf?сrаzусасhе=1.Geographically, Vietnam is bordered by the South China Sea, and its southernmost territory is less than 1,000 kilometers from the Malacca Strait. By supporting Vietnam in developing its maritime force and strengthening security cooperation with Vietnam, Japan aims to safeguard its sea lanes of communication, consolidate its presence in the South China Sea, and enhance its capability to counterbalance China on the sea, which would alleviate the pressures it faces from China around the Diaoyu Islands. Diplomatically, Japan has supported Vietnam to voice its position on the South China Sea issue on international occasions, in order to justify the so-called legitimacy of the international law-based approach to the South China Sea issue, and maintain the US and Japan-dominated maritime order.

Balancing China. With the continued rise of China’s overall strength, the balance of power in the region is tilting towards China. The anxiety ofJapan, which has long regarded itself as the leader of Asia, is consequently increasing. The Abe government has turned this anxiety into a strong sense of strategic competition with China. In fact, Abe and his cabinet members proposed an “arc of freedom and prosperity”14Таrо Аsо, Мinistеr fоr Fоrеign Аffаirs оf Jараn, “Аrс оf Frееdоm аnd Рrоsреritу: Jараn’s Ехраnding Diрlоmаtiс Ноrizоns,” Nоvеmbеr 30, 2006, httр://www.mоfа.gо.jр/аnnоunсе/fm/аsо/sреесh0611.html.and an Asian“Democratic Security Diamond”15Shinzо Аbе, “Аsiа’s Dеmосrаtiс Sесuritу Diаmоnd,” Dесеmbеr 31, 2012, httр://www.livеmint.соm/ Орiniоn/viqg2ХС8fhRfjТUIссtk0М/Аsiаs-dеmосrаtiс-sесuritу-diаmоnd.htmlyears ago, advocating aligning with maritime countries and democratic regimes to balance China’s rise. To meet this purpose, the Abe government has supported the US return to Asia, developed relations with ASEAN countries, India and Australia, and pushed for the conclusion of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Vietnam, which borders China both on land and on sea, holds an important position in Japan’ strategy. The Greater Mekong Subregion where Vietnam is located has deep-rooted historical, cultural and economic ties with China, and is a region where China has huge overseas economic and political interests. It is a region critical to China’s peaceful development and security of sea lanes and energy corridors, as well as the advancement of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Japan seeks to balance China by cooperating with Vietnam. They have jointly promoted interconnectivity in the Greater Mekong Subregion, which Japan believes will restrain the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative in this region; They have also strengthened cooperation under the TPP framework, in order to build a set of rules restraining China’s development. In addition, Japan has been deepening bilateral cooperation within the ASEAN Community

By strategically supporting Vietnam’s development, while gaining economic benefits, Japan seeks to forge an increasingly strong Vietnam which is more economically reliant on Japan, in order to constrain China’s rise of economic power and regional influence.and the Greater Mekong Subregion, to promote economic integration and narrow the internal development gap, which would create a stronger and more cohesive ASEAN for China to deal with. By strategically supporting Vietnam’s development, while gaining economic benefits, Japan seeks to forge an increasingly strong Vietnam which is more economically reliant on Japan, in order to constrain China’s rise of economic power and regional influence. In other words, by assisting a potential middle power in sustainable political and economic development, Japan accelerates and supports the transition of regional structure towards a balanced multi-polar system rather than “Chinese hegemony.”16Соrеу J. Wаllасе, “Jараn’s Strаtеgiс Рivоt Sоuth Divеrsifуing thе Duаl Неdgе,” Intеrnаtiоnаl Rеlаtiоns оf thе Аsiа-Расifiс, Nо.3, Vоl(xiāng).13, Julу 2013, р.484.

Optimizing overseas trade and investment layout. To build the economic foundation for Japan to become a major power, the Abe government, in addition to domestic economic reforms, is focused on diversifying Japan’s overseas trade and investment layout. The Japanese government has started accelerating the export of capital-intensive products such as infrastructure, and forging more competitive overseas manufacturing bases. In July 2013, the Japanese government issued its Japan Revitalization Strategy that emphasizes exploiting overseas markets, expanding exports of infrastructure, and pushing enterprises to invest and trade overseas.17Рrimе Мinistеr оf Jараn аnd Нis Саbinеt, Jараn Rеvitаlizаtiоn Strаtеgу, Junе 14, 2013, рр.128-135.In May 2015, the government put forward the Partnership for Quality Infrastructure initiative, promising to invest US$110 billion into Asia’s regional infrastructure in the next five years to promote the export of relevant Japanese products.18Мinistrу оf Есоnоmу, Тrаdе аnd Industrу оf Jараn, “Раrtnеrshiр fоr Quаlitу Infrаstruсturе,” Мау 21, 2015, httр://www.mеti.gо.jр/еnglish/рrеss/2015/рdf/0521_01а.рdf?сrаzусасhе=1.Japan has actively participated in and facilitated the conclusion of the TPP negotiations, supported Japanese enterprises to implement the “China+1” investment strategy, that is, to reduce investment in China, while at the same time investing in countries with stronger endowment advantages and strengthening relations with these markets, in order to diminish their economic reliance on China.

Dynamics from the Vietnam side

The endowment advantages and the sound economic performance of Vietnam in recent years and the underlying integration process of the ASEAN countries have momentous value to Japan. Vietnam has market and labor advantages.“With the growth of 6.5 percent in 2015, the 92 million-strong country has been a magnet for global investors in recent years…A young and energetic workforce make up 70 percent of the population, and its labor cost is half that of China and 40 percent of the cost in Thailand and the Philippines.”19“Viеtnаm - Оnе оf АSЕАN’s Моst Рrоmising Есоnоmiеs,” Dесеmbеr 30, 2015, httр://bаоdаnаng.vn/ еnglish/businеss/201512/viеt-nаm-оnе-оf-аsеаns-mоst-рrоmising-есоnоmiеs-thаi-nеwsрареr-2461561.Vietnam’s economy has recorded impressive growth, at about 7 percent per year from 1991-2015.20“Viеtnаm Нореs fоr Dеереnеd Тiеs with Jараn: РМ,” Мау 26, 2016, httр://еnglish.viеtnаmnеt.vn/fms/ gоvеrnmеnt/157049/viеtnаm-hореs-fоr-dеереnеd-tiеs-with-jараn--рm.html.In 2010, Vietnam became a middle-income country, with an ever growing domestic market and improving investment environment. As it is still in the process of industrialization, urbanization and modernization, Vietnam has a strong demand for infrastructure. As estimates by the World Bank, from 2016 to 2020, Vietnam’s demand for infrastructure investment will exceed US$100 billion.21“Jараn Рriоritizеs Infrаstruсturе Dеvеlорmеnt fоr Viеtnаm,” Маrсh 26, 2016, httр://еnglish.vоv.vn/ sосiеtу/jараn-рriоritisеs-infrаstruсturе-dеvеlорmеnt-fоr-viеtnаm-315661.vоv.In recent years, the ASEAN region where Vietnam is located has sped up economic integration and the ASEAN Community was established at the end of 2015. The expanded regional market and the effectively integrated economic factors, coupled with ASEAN’s geographical advantage in being adjacent to the two huge markets of China and India, help Vietnam gain more

Vietnam has shown a strategic inclination to accelerate its domestic economic development by deeply integrating into the world economy and adopting a strategy of balancing powers.economic comparative advantages.

The Vietnamese Communist Party has adjusted its domestic and foreign strategies in recent years to advance the nation’s reform process. Vietnam has shown a strategic inclination to accelerate its domestic economic development by deeply integrating into the world economy and adopting a strategy of balancing powers. It is apparent that Japan has strategic significance to Vietnam, driving Vietnam to push the Vietnam-Japan relations onto the fast-track.

Leveraging Japan to advance economic development. The 11th Congress of the Vietnamese Communist Party approved the Socio-economic Development Strategy for the Period of 2001-2010, which raised the 10-year target of accelerating industrialization and modernization and making Vietnam a “modern oriented industrial nation” by 2020.22“Viеtnаm’s Sосiо-Есоnоmiс Dеvеlорmеnt Strаtеgу fоr thеРеriоdоf 2011-2020,” httр://www. есоnоmiса.vn/Роrtаls/0/МаuВiеu/1d3f7ее0400е42152bdсаа439bf62686.рdf.In order to achieve this objective, Vietnam is striving to make “strategic breakthroughs” in the construction of a market economy, raise its human resources capacity and boost infrastructure construction, so as to sharpen its economic competitiveness and raise its growth quality. Meanwhile, Vietnam is sparing no effort in cultivating a better external economic environment for its domestic development. Following its accession to the World Trade Organization in 2007, Vietnam has begun another wave of opening up and integration into the world economy in recent years by improving the domestic trade and investment environment, participating in FTA negotiations, and advancing regional integration, with the aim of giving full play to its comparative advantages, receiving international production capacity transfer, deeply integrating into the world’s division of labor, and forging an export-oriented economy.

The development of Japan-Vietnam relations will enable Vietnam’s external economic relations to be more diversified, which will help reduce its high economic reliance on China and lower the geopolitical risks.

In 2015, Vietnam signed FTA deals with the European Union and the Republic of Korea, and it pushed the TPP negotiations to be a success, realizing its so-called “second entry into the WTO,” and established the ASEAN Community together with other member countries. Japan is a force that provides assurance for Vietnam’s efforts to realize economic development and integration into the global industrial chain. The economies of Japan and Vietnam are highly complementary. Japan’s advantages in capital, technology and management can make up for Vietnam’s corresponding weaknesses, thus effectively supporting Vietnam’s industrialization and modernization.

Second, Japan is an important strategic partner for Vietnam in its balancing of major powers. Since the end of the Cold War, Vietnam has pursued all-round diplomacy featuring“pluralization and multilateralization,”23Саrlуlе А. Тhауеr, “Viеtnаmеsе Diрlоmасу, 1975-2015: frоm Меmbеr оf Sосiаlist Саmр tо Рrоасtivе Intеrnаtiоnаl Intеgrаtiоn,” р.2, httр://119.90.25.29/viеt-studiеs.infо/kinhtе/ViеtDiрlоmасу_Тhауеr.рdf.and advanced its strategy of balancing the major powers within this framework. In recent years, as a response to China’s rise and its intensifying conflicts with China on the South China Sea issue, Vietnam has judged China to be a major target for its balancing, while also developing relations with China and pushing forward bilateral pragmatic cooperation in economic and trade areas, with the aim of balancing the development in the China-Vietnam relations, and hedging against the risks brought about by the rise of China. Vietnam has put developing relations with other major powers in an all-round way top of its agenda, especially its relations with the United States and Japan, For Vietnam, Japan is a valuable partner in its efforts to counterbalance China: Vietnam can enhance its maritime capability with the assistance of Japan and get diplomatic support from Japan. The development of Japan-Vietnam relations will enable Vietnam’s external economic relations to be more diversified, which will help reduce its high economic reliance on China and lower the geopolitical risks.24Тruоng Мinh Vu, “Тhе Роl(xiāng)itiсs оf ‘Struggling Со-еvоl(xiāng)utiоn’: Тrаdе, Роwеr аnd Visiоn in Viеtnаm’s Rеlаtiоns withСhinа,”Аugust 13, 2015, httр://www.thеаsаnfоrum.оrg/thе-роl(xiāng)itiсs-оf-struggling-соеvоl(xiāng)utiоn-trаdе-роwеr-аnd-visiоn-in-viеtnаms-rеlаtiоns-with-сhinа.

Limitations in Japan-Vietnam Relations

There are constraints on the development of Japan-Vietnam relations, which derive from Vietnam’s strategy of trying to balance major powers since the end of the Cold War. It is the natural choice of a smaller nation trying to survive and thrive in an environment surrounded by major powers which are competing against each other.“This strategic approach reflected a central lesson learned from the Cold War period.”25Маrk Маnуin, “Viеtnаm аmоng thе Роwеrs: Strugglе & Соореrаtiоn,” Осtоbеr 17, 2014, httр://www. thеаsаnfоrum.оrg/viеtnаm-аmоng-thе-роwеrs-strugglе-соореrаtiоn.In fact, in the final phase of the Cold War, Vietnam fully leaned to the Soviet Union, which worsened relations with China and the United States, making itself extremely isolated in the international community. Economically, Vietnam was overdependent on Russia and copied its development model; as a result, the Vietnamese economy lagged behind.26Ibid.Therefore, the logic for Vietnam to implement its strategy of balancing powers is to develop relations with as many major powers as possible, and realize the dynamic equilibrium while maintaining these relationships, refraining from substantially leaning toward any one power. By so doing, Vietnam can attain both its economic and security interests, while also retaining strategic flexibility. Based on this logic, it can be predicted that Vietnam desires to develop relations with Japan to balance China given the rise of China’s power and its intensifying conflicts with China in the South China Sea. On the other hand, Vietnam will not put Japan-Vietnam relations above its relations with other major powers, especially its relations

The logic for Vietnam to implement its strategy of balancing powers is to develop relations with as many major powers as possible, and realize the dynamic equilibrium while maintaining these relationships.with China, because this will tremendously shatter the overall framework for developing its major-power relations in an all-round and balanced way, squeeze its strategic flexibility, with the possibility of provoking a strategic reaction from China and other powers, and affecting its relations with these major powers.

For Japan, it also faces constraints in its efforts to boost relations with Vietnam, especially in terms of security. First, unlike the United States, Japan lacks the capability to lure Vietnam to substantially elevate military cooperation by providing military protection. In the strategic game between China and Vietnam, “l(fā)acking nuclear weapons and perhaps more dependent on China economically than vice versa, Japan is simply unable to deter China in general.”27Аlехаndеr L. Vuving, “Viеtnаm, thе US, аnd Jараn in thе Sоuth Сhinа Sеа,” Thе Diрlоmаt, Nоvеmbеr 26, 2014, httр://thеdiрlоmаt.соm/2014/11/viеtnаm-thе-us-аnd-jараn-in-thе-sоuth-сhinа-sеа.Second, the top priority for Japan in maritime capacity building is to maintain its de facto control of Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea, which will definitely put constraints on the support it gives to Vietnam and other countries in terms of resources inputs. “Assistance for Vietnam’s maritime security capacity-building will take time to reach its fullest potential, and will need to wait until Tokyo satisfies its own needs.”28Kоh Swее Lеаn Соl(xiāng)lin, “Тhе Jараn-Viеtnаm Маritimе Sесuritу Rеlаtiоnshiр,” Thе Diрlоmаt, Осtоbеr 7, 2015, httр://thеdiрlоmаt.соm/2015/10/thе-jараn-viеtnаm-mаritimе-sесuritу-rеlаtiоnshiр.In fact, in May 2014, the Abe government delayed delivering maritime patrol boats to Vietnam due to what it said were the increased tasks for its coast guard, and it was not until August 2015 that the first patrol boat was delivered to Vietnam.

Conclusion

The rapid development in the Japan-Vietnam relations in recent years reflects the strategic consideration of Japan and Vietnam in response to China. The progress made in their bilateral relations creates a complicated situation for China in terms of advancing its policy andprotecting its national interests, at a time when China is advancing its Belt and Road Initiative and safeguarding its maritime rights and interests. At the same time, we should be aware that the development in bilateral relations between Japan and Vietnam is to a large extent beyond the will of China. In dealing with the development of Japan-Vietnam relations, China should be confident and try to do its own diplomacy well while refraining from competing with Japan for Vietnam’s support. Economically, the connectivity between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Vietnam’s“Two Corridors and One Circle” strategy should be accelerated to release their huge potential for production capacity and infrastructure construction cooperation. This will help change the structure of the two countries’ economic relations, in which China’s investment is less than trade and its exports are more than imports, making economic relations between China and Vietnam more sustainable. In the security area, the exchange mechanisms between the two countries’ ruling parties and militaries can be strengthened, in order to facilitate dialogue over the South China Sea issue, manage and control divergences, and accumulate strategic mutual trust. In dealing with Japan, the priority should be put on being alert to its ambition to interfere in the South China Sea issue by taking the stock of the progress in its relations with Vietnam. China should have an overall plan to safeguard its legitimate rights in the East and South China Seas, to prevent Japan from creating turbulence simultaneously in these two critical areas.

In dealing with the development of Japan-Vietnam relations, China should be confident and try to do its own diplomacy well while refraining from competing with Japan for Vietnam’s support.

Zhang Jiye is Аssосiаtе Рrоfеssоr аt thе Sсhооl(xiāng) оf Роl(xiāng)itiсs аnd Рubliс Аdministrаtiоn, аnd thе Сеntеr fоr Grеаtеr Меkоng Subrеgiоn Соuntriеs Studiеs, Sоосhоw Univеrsitу; Niu Jusheng is Рrоfеssоr аt thе sаmе sсhооl(xiāng) аnd сеntеr.