推薦論文摘要

張紅才，金星，李軍，等

推薦論文摘要

地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)研究及應(yīng)用進(jìn)展

張紅才，金星，李軍，等

地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)是一種能夠有效減輕地震災(zāi)害的新手段。世界上多個國家和地區(qū)，如日本、墨西哥、美國、意大利、臺灣地區(qū)等都已經(jīng)研發(fā)了多個針對特定設(shè)施、單個城市甚至更大區(qū)域的地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)，有的地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)正式面向全體公眾發(fā)布地震預(yù)警信息，有的還正在線測試運(yùn)行。主要介紹了地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的一些基本概念，地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)需要解決的兩個關(guān)鍵問題，以及地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)在全球范圍內(nèi)的研究、建設(shè)進(jìn)展及相關(guān)應(yīng)用情況等。通過這些總結(jié)歸納為我國地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的建設(shè)提供一定參考。

地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)；地震災(zāi)害；發(fā)布

來源出版物：地球物理學(xué)進(jìn)展, 2013, 28(2): 706-719

超淺層三維地震勘探技術(shù)應(yīng)用

石戰(zhàn)結(jié)，田鋼，趙文軻，等

摘要：為了檢驗超淺層三維地震勘探技術(shù)對城市復(fù)雜環(huán)境下工程勘察目標(biāo)的探測能力，在上海市某公路上對地下隧道進(jìn)行超淺層三維地震探測試驗。設(shè)計具有較高施工效率的密集炮點(diǎn)排列的超淺層三維地震數(shù)據(jù)采集觀測系統(tǒng)，利用omega地震數(shù)據(jù)處理軟件對超淺層三維地震數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行帶通濾波、FX線性干擾壓制、振幅補(bǔ)償、反褶積、速度分析和疊加等處理，最后對超淺層三維地震疊加數(shù)據(jù)體進(jìn)行三維可視化解釋。結(jié)果表明，在地震疊加剖面上可以清晰看到超淺層地層界面的反射，由超淺層地震三維數(shù)據(jù)體能夠推斷出地下隧道的分布范圍。

關(guān)鍵詞：超淺層三維地震；市政工程；勘察；應(yīng)用試驗

來源出版物：浙江大學(xué)學(xué)報（工學(xué)版）, 2013, 47(5): 912-917

彈性城市研究框架綜述

李彤玥，牛品一，顧朝林

摘要：當(dāng)代城市面臨洪災(zāi)、地震、氣候變化、流行疾病、貧窮、經(jīng)濟(jì)波動等急性沖擊和慢性壓力，城市需要構(gòu)建彈性來應(yīng)對這些危機(jī)。目前，已針對城市系統(tǒng)、氣候變化和災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理、能源等領(lǐng)域構(gòu)建了彈性城市研究框架，其中美國洛克菲勒基金會針對城市系統(tǒng)提出的彈性框架因囊括了社會、經(jīng)濟(jì)、環(huán)境、制度、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等諸多領(lǐng)域而系統(tǒng)全面，有利于指導(dǎo)彈性城市研究和實踐；城市氣候變化及災(zāi)害風(fēng)險彈性框架提出了“識別—分析評價—診斷—行動計劃”的彈性構(gòu)建流程。比較彈性城市研究和城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究的概念框架可以發(fā)現(xiàn)：彈性城市概念框架更具有問題導(dǎo)向研究和實用的特性，兼具規(guī)避風(fēng)險和減災(zāi)及增強(qiáng)災(zāi)后恢復(fù)的針對性，同時更關(guān)注全部城市系統(tǒng)響應(yīng)多元壓力并具有多樣化的吸收能力及冗余性。目前，彈性城市框架已被國外廣泛研究并應(yīng)用于構(gòu)建城市應(yīng)對颶風(fēng)、地震、海嘯等自然災(zāi)害的彈性實踐中。我國的彈性城市研究還剛剛開始，現(xiàn)就國外彈性城市進(jìn)展進(jìn)行研究，主要介紹彈性城市概念，針對城市系統(tǒng)、氣候變化和災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理、城市能源等三種彈性城市研究框架，同時還就彈性城市與可持續(xù)城市研究框架進(jìn)行了比較研究。

關(guān)鍵詞：彈性城市；城市研究方法；災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理；可持續(xù)城市

來源出版物：城市規(guī)劃學(xué)刊, 2014, (5): 23-31

大華北地區(qū)地震災(zāi)害與風(fēng)險評估

劉靜偉，王振明，謝富仁，等

摘要：地震災(zāi)害與風(fēng)險是兩個本質(zhì)不同的概念：地震災(zāi)害是指由地震所引起的自然現(xiàn)象，而地震風(fēng)險是指由地震災(zāi)害所導(dǎo)致人類及其環(huán)境破壞的可能性。在考慮抗震設(shè)防時，地震風(fēng)險是更為重要的因素。本文首先對地震災(zāi)害與風(fēng)險這兩個概念進(jìn)行探討，然后利用500年的歷史地震烈度資料對大華北地區(qū)的地震災(zāi)害和風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評估。研究結(jié)果表明，大華北地區(qū)具有較高的地震災(zāi)害和地震風(fēng)險，尤其是鄂爾多斯周緣和京津唐地區(qū)；研究區(qū)內(nèi)很多城市現(xiàn)行的抗震設(shè)防要求可能偏低。

關(guān)鍵詞：大華北地區(qū)；地震災(zāi)害；地震風(fēng)險；災(zāi)害曲線；地震烈度；抗震設(shè)防

來源出版物：地震工程學(xué)報, 2014, 36(1): 12-21

城市地震應(yīng)急處置方案技術(shù)研究

徐敬海，聶高眾

摘要：地震應(yīng)急預(yù)案作為地震應(yīng)急的核心文件之一，存在操作性不強(qiáng)，針對性不足等問題。在分析地震應(yīng)急預(yù)案特點(diǎn)的基礎(chǔ)上提出一種地震應(yīng)急處置方案技術(shù)。地震應(yīng)急處置方案是地震發(fā)生后，為指導(dǎo)地震應(yīng)急救援，針對具體應(yīng)急事件的應(yīng)急處置工作方案。闡述了地震應(yīng)急處置方案的特點(diǎn)及其與地震應(yīng)急預(yù)案的關(guān)系。論述了地震應(yīng)急處置方案的組成，包括：處置方案框架、應(yīng)急決策知識和信息技術(shù)支撐平臺。介紹了地震應(yīng)急處置方案的工作原理，在信息技術(shù)支撐平臺上應(yīng)用地震應(yīng)急決策知識修正應(yīng)急處置方案框架并動態(tài)生成處置方案。以地市級為例論述了地震應(yīng)急處置方案框架，并介紹地震應(yīng)急決策知識的組成。從而為地震應(yīng)急處置方案的生成與應(yīng)用奠定基礎(chǔ)，該方案試圖在一定程度上改進(jìn)地震應(yīng)急預(yù)案的不足。

關(guān)鍵詞：地震應(yīng)急；應(yīng)急處置；處置方案；應(yīng)急預(yù)案

來源出版物：地震地質(zhì), 2014, 41(4): 107-110

地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)綜述

高峰，楊學(xué)山，馬樹林

摘要：由于地震引發(fā)的巨大人員傷亡和財產(chǎn)災(zāi)難，地震預(yù)警越來越引起世界各國的重視。通過分析地震預(yù)警的原理，介紹了異地震前預(yù)警和現(xiàn)地地震P波預(yù)警，同時也介紹了地震預(yù)警系統(tǒng)在城市以及鐵路、核電站和輸油氣管線等基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施應(yīng)用，強(qiáng)調(diào)其對于防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工程的重要性。

關(guān)鍵詞：地震預(yù)警；P波預(yù)警；預(yù)警系統(tǒng)；應(yīng)用

來源出版物：自然災(zāi)害學(xué)報, 2014, 23(5): 62-69

城市大型地下空間結(jié)構(gòu)地震風(fēng)險評估體系研究

安軍海，陶連金，安林軒

摘要：城市大型地下空間結(jié)構(gòu)引領(lǐng)著未來地下工程開發(fā)的新趨勢，其抗震性能已成為工程及學(xué)術(shù)領(lǐng)域研究的熱點(diǎn)問題?；跀?shù)值仿真分析的計算結(jié)果，提出了適合大型地下空間結(jié)構(gòu)的地震風(fēng)險評估體系，首次構(gòu)建了評估指標(biāo)，利用權(quán)重系數(shù)法確定了各評價指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，結(jié)合評估項目實踐,采用模糊語言描述進(jìn)行了風(fēng)險等級的劃分,進(jìn)而建立了適合地下結(jié)構(gòu)地震風(fēng)險評估的控制流程并進(jìn)行了實例驗證。研究結(jié)果表明：基于數(shù)值仿真分析的地震風(fēng)險評估體系能夠直觀地呈現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)地震破壞機(jī)制，有效地進(jìn)行風(fēng)險溯源，從而給出合理的風(fēng)險等級和針對性的控制措施，獲得滿意的風(fēng)險評估結(jié)果。地震風(fēng)險評估體系的建立為城市大型復(fù)雜地下結(jié)構(gòu)的地震風(fēng)險預(yù)測相關(guān)指南規(guī)范的研究提供了參考數(shù)據(jù)。

關(guān)鍵詞：地下空間結(jié)構(gòu)；數(shù)值仿真分析；地震風(fēng)險評估；評估指標(biāo)；風(fēng)險控制

來源出版物：土木工程學(xué)報, 2015, 48(S2): 118-123

基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的城市抗震防災(zāi)能力評估

蘇經(jīng)宇，劉曉然，王威，等

摘要：為解決城市抗震防災(zāi)系統(tǒng)由于本身非線性、復(fù)雜性、動態(tài)發(fā)展性、自組織性等特點(diǎn)致使其難以量化評估的問題，實現(xiàn)依據(jù)地震時序的城市抗震防災(zāi)能力的動態(tài)評估，提出了基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)的城市抗震防災(zāi)能力動態(tài)評估模型。首先，回顧總結(jié)了城市抗震防災(zāi)相關(guān)研究的進(jìn)展，總結(jié)了以往城市抗震防災(zāi)相關(guān)研究的不足；其次，給出了基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)城市抗震防災(zāi)能力評估研究的基本理論及框架；最后，運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)構(gòu)建了震前重點(diǎn)片區(qū)的人員緊急疏散、震后薄弱區(qū)短期疏散及震后人員傷亡和救援3個模型，通過模型模擬為城市抗震防災(zāi)規(guī)劃的具體實施提供了一定參考依據(jù)，且證實了系統(tǒng)動力在城市抗震防災(zāi)方面的實用性。

關(guān)鍵詞：地下空間結(jié)構(gòu)；數(shù)值仿真分析；地震風(fēng)險評估；評估指標(biāo)；風(fēng)險控制；

來源出版物：北京工業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報, 2015, 41(5): 709-717

城市地下結(jié)構(gòu)抗震研究進(jìn)展

陳國興，陳蘇，杜修力，等

摘要：城市地下結(jié)構(gòu)，尤其是隧道、地鐵、地下車站、地下管線系統(tǒng)，是現(xiàn)代社會公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的重要組成部分?？紤]到城市地下結(jié)構(gòu)對生命和經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要性，對城市地下結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行適當(dāng)?shù)目拐鹪O(shè)計是非常必要的。通常認(rèn)為地下結(jié)構(gòu)的抗震性能優(yōu)于地面結(jié)構(gòu)，然而在近年的大地震中，已有城市地下結(jié)構(gòu)嚴(yán)重破壞甚至完全坍塌的多個案列報道。報道介紹了工程師在地下結(jié)構(gòu)地震效應(yīng)設(shè)計中所采用的定量方法，而這些新近的震害現(xiàn)象也揭示了現(xiàn)行抗震設(shè)計方法的一些重要缺陷。討論和強(qiáng)調(diào)了改進(jìn)地下結(jié)構(gòu)地震性能和設(shè)計的最主要需求。認(rèn)識到地下結(jié)構(gòu)受到強(qiáng)地震引起的地基變形和扭曲而非慣性力作用，以及地下結(jié)構(gòu)特殊的幾何構(gòu)型和概念特征使得其地震行為和性能與地面結(jié)構(gòu)存在很大差異，是非常重要的。從簡單的解析彈性方法到復(fù)雜且物理意義更精確的整體動力數(shù)值方法，目前有多種有效的地下結(jié)構(gòu)抗震分析方法。對地下結(jié)構(gòu)震害、動力離心機(jī)和振動臺模型試驗，以及工程師在地下結(jié)構(gòu)抗震分析中可能遇到的有效設(shè)計與分析方法等方面涉及的重要問題進(jìn)行了簡要和全面的回顧。

關(guān)鍵詞：城市地下工程；震害；模型試驗；數(shù)值模擬；減輕災(zāi)害的工程措施

來源出版物：防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工程學(xué)報, 2016, 36(1): 1-23

地震應(yīng)急救援輻射效應(yīng)分析——以蘆山7.0級地震為例

高娜，聶高眾，鄧硯

摘要：地震應(yīng)急救援是一個很復(fù)雜的過程，對地震應(yīng)急救援輻射的研究需要用一種理論模型來刻畫和描述。用輻射能力來反映外部的救援能力，結(jié)合城市空間相互作用的研究理論，建立了地震應(yīng)急救援輻射模型，并以蘆山7.0級地震為例，計算了蘆山縣與四川省其他地級市之間的時間距離及各市對蘆山的輻射能力，在此基礎(chǔ)上分析了各地市的地震應(yīng)急救援輻射能力。輻射能力最強(qiáng)的是成都市，其次是綿陽、德陽、南充等地市，輻射能力最弱的是攀枝花、甘孜藏族自治州、阿壩藏族羌族自治州等市州。

關(guān)鍵詞：地震應(yīng)急救援；輻射效應(yīng)；時間距離；蘆山7.0級地震

來源出版物：災(zāi)害學(xué), 2014, 29(2): 170-174

城市地震風(fēng)險精細(xì)化評估——以北京海淀區(qū)為例

袁海紅，高曉路，戚偉

摘要：地震風(fēng)險評估需充分考慮到地震風(fēng)險的時空差異，選擇合理的時空間尺度進(jìn)行研究，才能給政府防災(zāi)減災(zāi)規(guī)劃、政策的落實和應(yīng)急救援等提供具有可操作性、切實有效的信息。為此，基于辨識城市地震風(fēng)險時空格局差異以及抗震救災(zāi)組織2個方面的綜合考慮，本研究選擇在500 m×500 m格網(wǎng)尺度上進(jìn)行晝夜2個不同時段的地震風(fēng)險評估研究，建立了晝夜人口分布與土地利用的對應(yīng)關(guān)系，以及建筑物損毀與人員傷亡之間的關(guān)系，提出了晝夜地震風(fēng)險精細(xì)化評估的方法。并以北京市海淀區(qū)為例，在500 m×500 m格網(wǎng)尺度上進(jìn)行了地震風(fēng)險的模擬評估，估算了海淀區(qū)總體及格網(wǎng)在相應(yīng)的地震烈度下可能的建筑物損毀面積、房屋損失以及人員傷亡數(shù)。結(jié)果表明，海淀區(qū)年期望建筑物損毀總面積為18.5萬m2，房屋總損失為3.25億元（不包括屋內(nèi)財產(chǎn)），白天死亡總?cè)藬?shù)3158人，受傷總?cè)藬?shù)12071人，夜晚死亡總?cè)藬?shù)2037人，受傷總?cè)藬?shù)7790人；空間上，建筑物損毀面積和房屋損失比較大的地區(qū)集中在南部城市中心區(qū)和東部產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)，白天和夜晚傷亡人數(shù)自東南向西北呈現(xiàn)出顯著的“城市核心區(qū)—城市邊緣區(qū)—城市影響區(qū)—鄉(xiāng)村腹地”的衰減模式，白天傷亡人口有幾個顯著的高值區(qū),夜晚傷亡人口則分布相對分散。文中的分析結(jié)果識別了晝夜精細(xì)化尺度地震風(fēng)險的高值區(qū)域，為進(jìn)一步確定防震減災(zāi)、震后應(yīng)急救援以及各種救災(zāi)物資分配的重點(diǎn)地區(qū)提供了決策依據(jù)。

關(guān)鍵詞：精細(xì)化尺度；地震風(fēng)險評估；建筑物損毀；損失；人員傷亡；海淀區(qū)

來源出版物：地震地質(zhì), 2016, 38(1): 197-210

城市地震應(yīng)急避難場所的確定方法和功能設(shè)計研究

馮海成，孟祥雨，章立科，等

摘要：地震應(yīng)急避難場所的選擇和設(shè)計對震前和震后的搶險救援及災(zāi)民的安置具有重要的作用。在高烈度區(qū)的大中城市，地震應(yīng)急避難場所的規(guī)劃設(shè)計也是城市防震減災(zāi)規(guī)劃中非常重要的工作內(nèi)容。以某經(jīng)濟(jì)開發(fā)區(qū)為例，利用O-D矩陣?yán)碚搶Φ卣饝?yīng)急避難場所進(jìn)行了合理選擇，同時對選定的應(yīng)急避難場所進(jìn)行了功能設(shè)計。研究成果對城市避難場所的選擇具有參考價值，對該開發(fā)區(qū)的不可預(yù)見的災(zāi)難的應(yīng)急救援具有重要的實用價值。

關(guān)鍵詞：應(yīng)急避難；體育場館；避難設(shè)計；校園避災(zāi)功能

來源出版物：自然災(zāi)害學(xué)報, 2016, 25(4): 86-92

適用于城市高層建筑群的震害預(yù)測模型研究

熊琛，許鎮(zhèn)，陸新征，等

摘要：高層建筑是城市建筑的重要組成部分，現(xiàn)有建筑震害預(yù)測模型難以滿足城市區(qū)域高層建筑群震害分析的要求。該文提出了一套非線性多自由度彎剪耦合模型（NMFS）以及其參數(shù)標(biāo)定方法。該模型：1）能模擬高層建筑顯著的彎剪耦合變形行為。與傳統(tǒng)的剪切層模型對比，該模型能準(zhǔn)確的模擬高層建筑的層間位移角包絡(luò)，其結(jié)果與精細(xì)有限元模型的結(jié)果非常接近；2）具有非常高的計算效率。與精細(xì)有限元模型對比,該模型的計算加速比超過60000倍；3）參數(shù)標(biāo)定簡單。僅需要借助于少量的建筑屬性信息（結(jié)構(gòu)高度、建設(shè)年代、設(shè)計信息和結(jié)構(gòu)類型）就能生成整個模型的彈塑性參數(shù)；4）能輸出各層時程響應(yīng)以及層間位移角情況，使未來基于工程需求參數(shù)（EDP）的區(qū)域高層建筑經(jīng)濟(jì)損失預(yù)測成為了可能。論文針對一棟典型高層結(jié)構(gòu)詳細(xì)展示了模型的建立與標(biāo)定流程，并對標(biāo)定參數(shù)的準(zhǔn)確性進(jìn)行了校驗。最后對北京CBD地區(qū)高層建筑群進(jìn)行了震害模擬，驗證了該方法在城市區(qū)域中應(yīng)用的可行性。該文的成果期望為未來區(qū)域高層建筑的地震損失預(yù)測提供參考。

關(guān)鍵詞：區(qū)域震害分析；高層建筑；彎剪耦合模型；時程分析；參數(shù)標(biāo)定

來源出版物：工程力學(xué), 2016, 33(11): 49-58

來源出版物：Proceedings of the IEEE, 2014, 20: 1-15

Horizontally curved steel bridge seismic vulnerability assessment

Seo, Junwon; Linzell, Daniel G.

Abstract:Most computational research related to steel bridge seismic vulnerability has focused on statistical extrapolation of analysis results for individual straight bridges. However, there has been a steady growth in the use of horizontally curved steel bridges in highways and interchanges in large urban regions. Given the large number of curved steel bridge structures in use in the US and abroad, with some of those structures being located in seismic zones, the feasibility of examining the effects of curvature on bridge vulnerability should be investigated. In this study, the seismic performance characteristics of an existing inventory of horizontally curved, steel, I-girder bridges located in Pennsylvania, New York, and Maryland were used to generate fragility curves. Representative fragility curves for horizontally curved, steel, I-girder bridges were estimated using Response Surface Metamodels (RSMs) in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation. The methodology was used to construct fragility curves for select bridge components (bearings, columns and abutments). The curves were generated for four different, preexisting, performance states that represented slight, moderate, extensive, and complete damage under varying levels of earthquake intensity. The generated fragility curves provided information related to seismic response of the bridge inventory that was investigated, such as radial deformations at the bearings being the most susceptible component to seismic loads.

Keywords:earthquake; vulnerability; curved; bridges;monte carlo simulation; response surface metamodels

來源出版物：Engineering Structures, 2012, 34: 21-32

Disaster chains initiated by the Wenchuan earthquake

Xu, Mengzhen; Wang, Zhaoyin; Qi, Lijian; et al.

Abstract:The Wenchuan earthquake caused numerous landslides and avalanches, which initiated causal chains of geological and ecological disasters. Field investigations and field experiments were performed in the earthquake area in 2008 and 2009 to study the disaster chains. Four types of disaster chains have been identified and seven cases have been studied. In the disaster chains, each episode was caused by the previous episode, or the causal episode. In the first chain, landslide created a quake lake, which was followed by landslide dam failure flood and very intensive fluvial process. The last episode of the chain was loss of habitats and destruction of aquatic biocommunities. The Tangjiashan and Huoshigou landslides initiated such a type of disaster chain. The second chain consisted of landslide, drainage system burying, debris flows, and development of new drainage system and intensive fluvial process. The Wenjiagou landslide initiated such a type of disaster chain. The third chain consisted of avalanches, grain erosion (unusual erosion of bare rocks due to insolation and temperature change), slope debris flows, and flying stones. Many such disaster chain events occurred on the mountains by the Minjiang River section from Yingxiu to Wenchuan. The fourth chain has only two episodes: avalanches during the earthquake occurring on elevation between 100 and 800 m from the riverbed, and rock falls or new avalanches due to increased slope angle of high mountains (400-1500 m from the riverbed). The Chediguan bridge was broken by such avalanches in July 2009, in which six were killed and more than 20 were injured. For all the disaster chains, the volume of mass movement in each episode was much less than the causal episode (previous episode). In other words, there was an attenuation along the causal chains. The attenuation factor is defined as the ratio of the volume of mass movement or affected area in one episode of a chain to the volume or affected area in the causal episode. The study concluded that the attenuation factor ranges from 0.02 to 0.3. Macro-invertebrates were used as indicator species to evaluate the ecological effect of the disaster chains. The number of species was greatly reduced by the causal chains, although the river section was not directly affected by landslides.

Keywords:Wenchuan earthquake; disaster chain; mass movement; debris flow; attenuation factor

來源出版物：Environmental Earth Sciences, 2012, 65(4): 975-985

A multi-agent optimization formulation of earthquake disaster prevention and management

Edrissi, Ali; Poorzahedy, Hossain; Nassiri, Habibollah; et al.

Abstract:Natural earthquake disasters are unprecedented incidents which take many lives as a consequence and cause major damages to lifeline infrastructures. Various agencies in a country are responsible for reducing such adverse impacts within specific budgets. These responsibilities range from before to after the incident, targeting one of the main phases of disaster management (mitigation, preparedness, and response). Use of OR in disaster management and coordination of its phases has been mostly ignored and highly recommended in former reviews. This paper presents a formulation to coordinate three main agencies and proposes a heuristic approach to solve the different introduced sub-problems. The results show an improvement of 7.5%-24% when the agencies are coordinated.

Keywords:OR in societal problem analysis; disaster management; multi-agent optimization; emergency response

來源出版物：European Journal of Operational Research, 2013, 229(1): 261-275

Response to the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and Tsunami disaster

Koshimura, Shunichi; Shuto, Nobuo

Abstract:We revisited the lessons of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami disaster specifically on the response and impact, and discussed the paradigm shift of Japan's tsunami disaster management policies and the perspectives for reconstruction. Revisiting the modern histories of Tohoku tsunami disasters and pre-2011 tsunami countermeasures, we clarified how Japan’s coastal communities have prepared for tsunamis. The discussion mainly focuses on structural measures such as seawalls and breakwaters and non-structural measures of hazard map and evacuation. The responses to the 2011 event are discussed specifically on the tsunami warning system and efforts to identify the tsunami impacts. The nation-widepost-tsunami survey results shed light on the mechanisms of structural destruction, tsunami loads and structural vulnerability to inform structural rehabilitation measures and land-use planning. Remarkable paradigm shifts in designing coastal protection and disaster mitigation measures were introduced, leading with a new concept of potential tsunami levels: Prevention (Level 1) and Mitigation (Level 2) levels according to the level of‘protection’. The seawall is designed with reference to Level 1 tsunami scenario, while comprehensive disaster management measures should refer to Level 2 tsunami for protection of human lives and reducing potential losses and damage. Throughout the case study in Sendai city, the proposed reconstruction plan was evaluated from the tsunami engineering point of view to discuss how the post 2011 paradigm was implemented in coastal communities for future disaster mitigation. The analysis revealed that Sendai city’s multiple protection measures for Level 2 tsunami will contribute to a substantial reduction of the tsunami inundation zone and potential losses, combined with an effective tsunami evacuation plan.

Keywords:the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and Tsunami disaster; Tsunami countermeasure; disaster resilience; post-disaster recovery and reconstruction

來源出版物：Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2015, 373(2053): 20140373

Influence of seismic design criteria on blast resistance of RC framed buildings: A case study

Parisi, Fulvio; Augenti, Nicola

Abstract:In the last decades iconic and public buildings in urban habitat have been subjected to terrorist attacks and many of them are located in earthquake-prone regions. This study is aimed at assessing the influence of seismic design criteria on blast resistance of RC framed structures. Two 3D models were developed and analysed for a case-study building: one was designed for earthquake resistance according to Eurocode 8 (EC8); the other was designed only for gravity loads according to codes and practice going back to the 1970s. Several blast scenarios were considered and a two-step analysis procedure was used. Local analysis was carried out to identify columns directly failing under blast scenarios, whereas global pushdown analysis was performed on each 3D damaged model to assess robustness. Dynamic increase factors at both material and structural levels were assumed. Flexural-shear interaction and limited strength of beam-column joints were also addressed in the case of EC8-nonconforming building. Local pressure-impulse analysis was carried out in addition to simplified static and dynamic analyses; the same numbers of collapsed columns were found for the EC8-conforming building, while static analysis was too conservative for the EC8-nonconforming building. Pressure-impulse diagrams let to predict residual load-carrying capacity of adjacent columns. Seismic design criteria provided sufficient robustness only against some blast scenarios. In the case of EC8-nonconforming building, inclined beams in the staircase induced higher robustness against explosions occurring there and global ductility reduced under increasing load-bearing capacity. The latter can enhance by increasing longitudinal rebar in a way to avoid flexural-shear interaction, and/or reducing stirrup spacing.

Keywords:RC framed buildings; blast resistance; seismic design; local analysis; pushdown analysis

來源出版物：Engineering Structures, 2012, 44: 78-93

Engineering measures for debris flow hazard mitigation in the Wenchuan earthquake area

Chen, Xiaoqing; Cui, Peng; You, Yong

Abstract:Avalanches and landslides caused by the Wenchuan earthquake in the Longmen Mountains area provide abundant loose solids for debris flows, and a large number of debris flows have occurred during the period 2008-2012. The engineering measures in certain gullies failed, causing serious damage and loss of life. Judging from the debris flow characteristics in the Wenchuan earthquake area, engineering measures should be better constructed after the active period of debris flows in severely affected areas. To reduce debris flow disasters, this paper proposes a mitigation method and design principle based on the transport capacity of the main river. A series of check dams with various opening sizes was designed by investigating and analyzing existing cases. Furthermore, a new type of drainage channel with prefabricated reinforced concrete boxes is proposed. Finally, a case study of the Xiaogangjian Gully, which is a typical debris flow gully in the Wenchuan earthquake area, is presented. This system of engineering measures is based on the main river's transport capacity and consists of five check dams with various opening sizes, a drainage channel with sidewalls constructed of prefabricated reinforcedconcrete boxes, and a debris flow basin at the base of the main gully. The debris flow mitigation measures constructed in the Xiaogang, jian Gully effectively resisted a debris flow with a 50-year return period that was triggered by rainfall on July 26, 2012. Specifically, these measures effectively protected a highway and minimized debris flow damage. Thus, the layout and engineered structures involved in this new engineering technique can provide a reference design for debris flow hazard mitigation.

Keywords:debris flow; engineering measures; drainage channel; check dam; Wenchuan earthquake

來源出版物：Engineering Geology, 2014, 11(1): 30-44

Timescape of the earthquake disasters in Iran: The intricacies of earthquake time and earthquake disaster risk reduction

Ibrion, Michaela; Mokhtari, Mohammad; Parsizadeh, Farokh; et al.

Abstract:Time is a crucial coordinate for seismology, though often its ubiquity is forgotten by society as it is taken for granted and its potential is unexplored within the arena of earthquake disaster risk reduction. Earthquake disasters build up over time. An earthquake is a dramatic context that takes just tiny units of time to bring an immense tragedy of human loss, suffering and destruction. This paper targets the exploration of the timescape for four large earthquake disasters in Iran: Bam in 2003, Rudbar in 1990, Tabas in 1978 and Buyin Zahra in 1962. An investigation of the intricacies of earthquake time and earthquake disaster time is performed for these four earthquake disasters which covers a time interval of 52 years. These large earthquake disasters are considered as chronological milestones for the Iranian seismic timescape. This contributes to model seismic patterns with the aim to reduce the epistemic uncertainty and encourage better earthquake preparedness and earthquake disaster risk reduction. It is found that two perspectives, a geological perspective and earthquake disaster survivors' perspective and their associated aspects of time present a great potential for earthquake disaster risk reduction. A dramatic repetition of earthquake disaster time not only in time, but also in various places in Iran, highlights that living with earthquakes in Iran requires a better articulation of the relationship between the time of nature and the time of society and local communities. Furthermore, learning to live with earthquake time requires a long-term mitigation of the earthquake hazard and improvement of the resilience of local communities.

Keywords:time; earthquake time; earthquake disaster time; golden time; timescape; earthquake disaster risk reduction

來源出版物：Geografiska Annaler Series A-Physical Geography, 2015, 97(S1): 197-216

Developing an adaptive global exposure model to support the generation of country disaster risk profiles

Gunasekera, Rashmin; Ishizawa, Oscar; Aubrecht, Christoph; et al.

Abstract:Corresponding to increased realization of the impacts of natural hazards in recent years and the need for quantification of disaster risk, there has been increasing demand from the public sector for openly available disaster risk profiles. Probabilistic disaster risk profiles provide risk assessments and estimates of potential damage to property caused by severe natural hazards. These profiles outline a holistic view of financial risk due to natural hazards, assisting governments in long-term planning and preparedness. A Country Disaster Risk Profile (CDRP) presents a probabilistic estimate of risk aggregated at the national level. A critical component of a CDRP is the development of consistent and robust exposure model to complement existing hazard and vulnerability models. Exposure is an integral part of any risk assessment model, capturing the attributes of all exposed elements grouped by classes of vulnerability to different hazards, and analyzed in terms of value, location and relative importance (e.g. critical facilities and infrastructure). Using freely available (or available at minimum cost) datasets, we present a methodology for an exposure model to produce three independent geo-referenced databases to be used in national level disaster risk profiling for the public sector. These databases represent aggregated economic value at risk at 30 arc-second spatial resolution (approximately 1 × 1-km grid at the equator) using a top-down (or downscaling) approach. To produce these databases, the models used are: 1) a building inventory stock model which captures important attributes such as geographical location, urban/rural classification, type of occupancy (e.g. residential and non-residential), building typology (e.g. wood, concrete, masonry, etc.) and economic (replacement) value; 2) a non-building infrastructure density and value model that also corresponds to the fiscal infrastructure portion of the Gross Capital Stock (GCS) of a country; and 3) a spatially and sectorially disaggregated Gross DomesticProduct (GDP) model that relates to the production (flow) of goods and services of a country. These models can be adapted to produce-independently or cohesively-a composite exposure database. Finally, we provide an example of the model’s use in economic loss estimation for the reoccurrence of the 1882 Mw 7.8 Panama earthquake.

Keywords:Exposure model; Disaster risk assessment; Gross Domestic Product (GDP); Building inventory; Gross Capital Stock (GCS); Infrastructure; Urban; Agriculture

來源出版物：Earth-Science Reviews, 2015, 150: 594-608

Pre-Positioning Disaster Response Facilities and Relief Items

Renkli, Cigdem; Duran, Serhan; et al.

Abstract:Large-scale disasters cause enormous damage to people living in the affected areas. Providing relief quickly to the affected is a critical issue in recovering the effects of a disaster. Pre-disaster planning has an important role on reducing the arrival time of relief items to the affected areas and efficiently allocating them. In this study, a mixed integer programming model is proposed in order to pre-position warehouses throughout a potential affected area and determine the amount of relief items to be held in those warehouses. Time between the strike of the disaster and arrival of relief items at the affected areas is aimed to be minimized. In addition, using probabilistic constraints, the model ensures that relief items arrive at affected areas within a certain time window with certain reliability. Considering instable fault lines on which Istanbul is located, the proposed model is applied to the Istanbul case for pre-positioning warehouses a priori to the possible expected large-scale earthquake.

Keywords:humanitarian logistics; mixed integer programming; probabilistic constraints; disaster management

來源出版物：Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2015, 21(5): 1169-1185

Education: Can a bottom-up strategy help for earthquake disaster prevention?

Musacchio, G; Falsaperla, S; Bernhardsdottir, A. E; et al.

Abstract:To comply with the need to spread the culture of earthquake disaster reduction, we rely on strategies that involve education. Risk education is a long-term process that passes from knowledge, through understanding, to choices and actions thrusting preparedness and prevention, over recovery. We set up strategies for prevention that encompass child and adult education, as a bottom-up approach, from raising awareness to reducing potential effects of disruption of society. Analysis of compulsory school education in three European countries at high seismic risk, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy, reveals that generally there are a few State-backed plans. The crucial aspects of risk education concerning natural hazards are starting age, incompleteness of textbooks, and lack of in-depth studies of the pupils upon completion of their compulsory education cycle. Hands-on tools, immersive environments, and learn-by-playing approaches are the most effective ways to raise interest in children, to provide memory imprint as a message towards a culture of safety. A video game, Treme-treme, was prepared to motivate, educate, train and communicate earthquake risk to players/pupils. The game focuses on do's and don'ts for earthquake shaking, and allows children to think about what might be useful in the case of evacuation. Education of the general public was addressed using audio-visual products strongly linked to the social, historical and cultural background of each country. Five videos tackled rising of awareness of seismic hazards in Lisbon, the area surrounding Reykjavik, Naples, and Catania, four urban areas prone to earthquake disasters.

Keywords:disasters prevention; risk education; risk reduction; seismic hazard

來源出版物：Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2016, 14(7): 2069-2086

Fast building damage mapping using a single post-earthquake PolSAR image: A case study of the 2010 Yushu earthquake

Zhai, Wei; Huang, Chunlin

Abstract:Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters. Efficiently and quickly acquiring building earthquake damage information can help to reduce the casualties after an earthquake. In this paper, for convenience, speed, and precision, building damage information is extracted using a single post-earthquake PolSAR image. In PolSAR images, the undamaged parallel buildings characterized by double-bounce scattering are different from the collapsed buildings characterized by volume scattering, but the undamaged oriented buildings are very similar to collapsed buildings because of their scattering mechanism ambiguity in the early traditional model-based decomposition. Therefore, the collapsed buildings are difficult to extract accurately. In this paper, the scheme of polarization orientation angle (POA)compensation is employed to enhance the double-bounce scattering power of the oriented buildings, and the difference in the relative contribution change rate of scattering components before and after POA compensation is proposed to further enhance the difference between collapsed buildings and oriented buildings, in order that the collapsed buildings can be extracted more accurately. The“4.14” Yushu earthquake, which occurred in Yushu County, Qinghai province of China, is used as the case study to test the proposed method, and an airborne high-resolution PolSAR image of the urban region of Yushu County is used in the experiment. The experimental results show that the accuracy of building damage information extraction can be improved by the use of the proposed method, compared with the traditional polarimetric classification.

Keywords:earthquake; PolSAR; collapsed buildings; damage mapping; polarization orientation angle

來源出版物：Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 2016, 14(7): 2069-2086

Earthquake preparedness: The case of Eastern UAE

Yagoub, M. M.

Abstract:During the last 30 years, UAE witnessed earthquakes that ranged from minor to moderate, with maximum magnitude of 5.1 that occurred in the Masafi area (eastern UAE, on March 11, 2002). Recent earthquakes that hit Iran such as on May 11, 2013, caused tremors and mild shaking of buildings in some UAE cities. Although the tremors are small in magnitude, their sequences apparently become an important research topic and deserve more assessment from different perspectives such as geographical, geological, engineering, and social. This is because low risk does not equal no risk. This study is concerned with public perceptions of earthquake preparedness (reduction of disaster impact) that can be measured by various variables such as developing an emergency plan, preparation of disaster supply kits, and training. The methodology consists of a survey of 470 people who live around the Masafi area, near Fujairah city, UAE. GIS and GPS were used for site selection in conducting the survey, and remote sensing was used as an aid in identification of buildings’ages. Results show that around 90% of the people surveyed have water tanks that can support them up to 3 days, and 60% of them normally buy food that can support them up to 2 days. Thirty percent of the respondents were familiar with storing first-aid kits and tools such as flashlights. The findings point to a need for more research regarding public awareness about earthquakes. The findings of this study may be useful for people who are involved in the four cornerstones of disaster risk reduction: community participation, public policy actions, safer construction and urban development, and development of a culture of prevention.

Keywords:earthquake; UAE; public awareness

來源出版物：Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 2016, 9(19): 721

Towards disaster resilience: A scenario-based approach to co-producing and integrating hazard and risk knowledge

Davies, Tim; Beaven, Sarah; Conradson, David; et al.

Abstract:Quantitative risk assessment and risk management processes are critically examined in the context of their applicability to the statistically infrequent and sometimes unforeseen events that trigger major disasters. While of value when applied at regional or larger scales by governments and insurance companies, these processes do not provide a rational basis for reducing the impacts of major disasters at the local (community) level because in any given locality disaster events occur too infrequently for their future occurrence in a realistic timeframe to be accurately predicted by statistics. Given that regional and national strategies for disaster reduction cannot be effective without effective local disaster reduction measures, this is a significant problem. Instead, we suggest that communities, local government officials, civil society organisations and scientists could usefully form teams to co-develop local hazard event and effects scenarios, around which the teams can then develop realistic long-term plans for building local resilience. These plans may also be of value in reducing the impacts of other disasters, and are likely to have the additional benefits of improving science development, relevance and uptake, and of enhancing communication between scientists and the public.

Keywords:disaster risk quantification; risk management; community resilience; event and effects scenarios; coproduction of knowledge

來源出版物：International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015, 13: 242-247

責(zé)任編輯：衛(wèi)夏雯

Estimating building inventory for rapid seismic vulnerability assessment: Towards an integrated approach based on multi-source imaging

Wieland, M.; Pittore, M; Parolai, S; et al.

We propose an integrated approach to estimating building inventory for seismic vulnerability assessment, which can be applied to different urban environments and be efficiently scaled depending on the desired level of detail. The approach employs a novel multi-source method for evaluating structural vulnerability-related building features based on satellite remote sensing and ground-based omnidirectional imaging. It aims to provide a comparatively cost- and time-efficient way of inventory data capturing over large areas. The latest image processing algorithms and computer vision techniques are used on multiple imaging sources within the framework of an integrated sampling scheme, where each imaging source and technique is used to infer specific, scale-dependent information. Globally available low-cost data sources are preferred and the tools are being developed on an open-source basis to allow for a high degree of transferability and usability. An easily deployable omnidirectional camera-system is introduced for ground- based data-capturing. After a general description of the approach and the developed tools and techniques, preliminary results from a first application to our study area, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, are presented.來源出版物：Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2012, (36): 70-83Remote sensing and earthquake damage assessment: Experiences, limits, and perspectivesDell’Acqua, Fabio; Gamba, PaoloAbstract:In this paper, a survey of the techniques and data sets used to evaluate earthquake damages using remote sensing data is presented. After a few preliminary definitions about earthquake damage, their evaluation scale, and the difference between identification of damage“extent” and identification of damage “l(fā)evel,” the advantages and limits of different remote sensing data sets are presented. Furthermore, a survey of proposed algorithms for data interpretation and earthquake damage extraction is presented, and two examples of these algorithms and their results are discussed. According to the outcome of this survey, some open issues are finally presented and discussed, identifying possible research lines as well as working solutions.

damage assessment; data fusion; urban areas