遼寧洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)分析

王永寧（遼寧省防汛抗旱指揮部辦公室，遼寧 沈陽 110003）

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遼寧洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)分析

王永寧
（遼寧省防汛抗旱指揮部辦公室，遼寧 沈陽 110003）

［摘 要］根據(jù)近年來遼寧省區(qū)域內(nèi)洪澇災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生的實(shí)際情況，有針對性地指出了遼寧省當(dāng)前洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作中存在的重點(diǎn)問題；同時(shí)，結(jié)合遼寧省防汛工作的主要特點(diǎn)，提出了進(jìn)一步做好洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作的幾點(diǎn)措施和建議。

［關(guān)鍵詞］洪澇災(zāi)情；統(tǒng)計(jì)；遼寧

洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)是一項(xiàng)專業(yè)性、科學(xué)性、連續(xù)性、時(shí)效性較強(qiáng)的工作，是防汛應(yīng)急管理、指揮決策、災(zāi)后恢復(fù)重建等的重要基礎(chǔ)性工作，是研究制定洪澇災(zāi)害應(yīng)對措施、統(tǒng)計(jì)分析洪澇災(zāi)害發(fā)生規(guī)律和社會經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)中開展防災(zāi)減災(zāi)工作不可或缺的基礎(chǔ)性資料，是各級防汛指揮者準(zhǔn)確、及時(shí)了解掌握災(zāi)情信息，實(shí)行科學(xué)指揮決策、指導(dǎo)搶險(xiǎn)救災(zāi)的重要依據(jù)。洪澇災(zāi)害信息的及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確與否，直接關(guān)系到各級防汛搶險(xiǎn)工作的有效實(shí)施，關(guān)系到各級防災(zāi)減災(zāi)指揮機(jī)構(gòu)的高效運(yùn)作和正確指揮，甚至關(guān)系到整個(gè)防汛工作的成敗。

1　洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)的作用

遼寧省位于中國東北地區(qū)的南部，是中國東北經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)和環(huán)渤海經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)的重要結(jié)合部，是東北地區(qū)通往關(guān)內(nèi)的交通要道，也是東北地區(qū)和內(nèi)蒙古通向世界、連接歐亞大陸橋的重要門戶和前沿地帶。遼寧省屬于溫帶大陸性季風(fēng)氣候區(qū)，中部為平原地區(qū)，東西部為山地丘陵地區(qū)。陸地面積14.59萬km2（山地面積8.72萬km2，平地面積4.87 萬km2，水域面積1萬km2），海域面積15.02萬km2（渤海部分7.83萬km2，北黃海7.19萬km2）。海岸線東起鴨綠江口，西至山海關(guān)老龍頭，大陸海岸線全長2178 km，占中國大陸海岸線總長的12%。

洪澇災(zāi)害是威脅人民生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全的主要自然災(zāi)害之一。獨(dú)特的自然地理?xiàng)l件和不斷變化的氣候環(huán)境，決定了遼寧省是一個(gè)洪澇災(zāi)害頻繁發(fā)生的省份；其中，東部地區(qū)和西部地區(qū)極易發(fā)生山洪泥石流災(zāi)害，中部地區(qū)極易發(fā)生內(nèi)澇事件，沿海地區(qū)容易受臺風(fēng)影響發(fā)生洪澇災(zāi)害。近年來，隨著全球氣候變暖和環(huán)境變化，遼寧省極端性天氣事件頻次加劇，洪澇災(zāi)害呈現(xiàn)了多發(fā)、突發(fā)的態(tài)勢。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，2010年以來遼寧省區(qū)域內(nèi)共發(fā)生各類洪澇災(zāi)害24次，其中2010年的6次強(qiáng)降雨、2012年的“8.04”洪水、2013年的“8.16”洪水等洪澇災(zāi)害，均給遼寧省部分地區(qū)造成了不同程度的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失。災(zāi)害發(fā)生后，在充分利用已經(jīng)建成的洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)報(bào)送系統(tǒng)平臺的基礎(chǔ)上，通過各級洪澇災(zāi)害統(tǒng)計(jì)人員的積極努力，對每一次洪澇災(zāi)害造成的險(xiǎn)情、災(zāi)情進(jìn)行了及時(shí)統(tǒng)計(jì)，對人口受災(zāi)、房屋倒塌、農(nóng)作物損失、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施損毀等重要災(zāi)情信息進(jìn)行了充分分析核實(shí)并開展了逐級報(bào)送工作，在第一時(shí)間為各級防汛搶險(xiǎn)和指揮決策提供了第一手資料，也為及時(shí)降低受災(zāi)地區(qū)洪澇災(zāi)害損失提供了基礎(chǔ)信息，為區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)社會持續(xù)發(fā)展奠定了堅(jiān)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。

2　存在的問題

多年來，遼寧省洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作取得了一定的成績，圓滿完成了2010年6次強(qiáng)降雨過程、2012年的“8.04”大洪水、2013年的“8.16”大洪水等重大洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)報(bào)送工作，積累了許多經(jīng)驗(yàn)。但是，也存在一些不容忽視的突出問題，主要表現(xiàn)在：

一是基層報(bào)災(zāi)時(shí)效性差。近年來新聞媒體對防汛工作宣傳力度加大，信息傳播節(jié)奏加快，給防汛信息報(bào)送帶來新的壓力。報(bào)災(zāi)不及時(shí)是當(dāng)前洪澇災(zāi)情報(bào)送工作中存在的主要問題，一些地區(qū)對突發(fā)洪澇災(zāi)情不敏感，應(yīng)急反應(yīng)能力不強(qiáng)，信息報(bào)送不及時(shí)，造成災(zāi)情信息上報(bào)遲滯。

二是災(zāi)情數(shù)據(jù)存在出入。洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)表包含項(xiàng)目多，既包括水利設(shè)施的損失，還包括受災(zāi)范圍、人口、倒塌房屋及農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)、工業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)等損失。災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)涉及部門多，且災(zāi)害發(fā)生后，各部門關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)不同，造成不同部門掌握的同一類別數(shù)據(jù)常存在一些差異。

三是虛報(bào)瞞報(bào)時(shí)有發(fā)生。統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)是洪澇災(zāi)害的客觀記錄，一些地區(qū)對洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)的嚴(yán)肅性缺乏正確認(rèn)識，洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)中虛報(bào)瞞報(bào)的情況時(shí)有發(fā)生，出現(xiàn)“小災(zāi)報(bào)大，大災(zāi)報(bào)小”的情況。

四是基層統(tǒng)計(jì)力量薄弱。個(gè)別市縣缺乏專職災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)人員，除災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作外，統(tǒng)計(jì)人員仍兼顧其他工作；另外，洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)專業(yè)性較強(qiáng)，個(gè)別統(tǒng)計(jì)人員對洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)制度掌握不夠透徹，對洪澇災(zāi)情的統(tǒng)計(jì)范圍、統(tǒng)計(jì)內(nèi)容、報(bào)送制度、工作方式理解不深，在災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)質(zhì)量等方面還存在不足。

3　措施和建議

針對當(dāng)前遼寧洪澇災(zāi)害統(tǒng)計(jì)存在的突出問題，結(jié)合遼寧防汛工作的實(shí)際情況，提出做好遼寧洪澇災(zāi)害統(tǒng)計(jì)工作的幾點(diǎn)措施和建議如下：

一是嚴(yán)格落實(shí)災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)報(bào)表制度。各級防汛指揮機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)認(rèn)真貫徹洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)制度，切實(shí)堅(jiān)持做好“四報(bào)”，①實(shí)時(shí)報(bào)，及時(shí)在災(zāi)情發(fā)生后第一時(shí)間上報(bào)災(zāi)情報(bào)表；②過程報(bào)，及時(shí)在每次災(zāi)情過程結(jié)束后上報(bào)經(jīng)過核實(shí)的災(zāi)情報(bào)表；③月報(bào)，及時(shí)上報(bào)當(dāng)月發(fā)生災(zāi)害過程的累計(jì)報(bào)表；④年報(bào)，及時(shí)上報(bào)全年發(fā)生災(zāi)害過程的累計(jì)報(bào)表。

二是及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確報(bào)送重大險(xiǎn)情災(zāi)情信息。各級防汛指揮機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)認(rèn)真執(zhí)行國家防總防汛突發(fā)險(xiǎn)情災(zāi)情報(bào)告管理相關(guān)規(guī)定，對水庫、江河堤防垮壩、決口或失事、重大山洪泥石流，或者出現(xiàn)垮壩決口前兆的危險(xiǎn)狀況、重大人員傷亡等重大險(xiǎn)情信息，要在迅速報(bào)告本級黨委、政府的同時(shí)，必須在第一時(shí)間把簡要情況上報(bào)上級防汛指揮機(jī)構(gòu)，同時(shí)繼續(xù)收集整理補(bǔ)充新情況，及時(shí)做好續(xù)報(bào)工作。

三是嚴(yán)肅災(zāi)情信息報(bào)送紀(jì)律。各級防汛指揮機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)強(qiáng)化信息報(bào)送，上報(bào)信息要及時(shí)準(zhǔn)確，既不能謊報(bào)，也不能瞞報(bào)；應(yīng)嚴(yán)肅報(bào)送紀(jì)律，各級政府主管領(lǐng)導(dǎo)必須對報(bào)送的信息嚴(yán)格把關(guān)，各級防指、防辦領(lǐng)導(dǎo)對報(bào)送的信息要確認(rèn)簽字，尤其是人員傷亡的信息，必須校準(zhǔn)核實(shí)；更不能發(fā)生私自發(fā)布信息、小題大做、無事生非等現(xiàn)象。

四是強(qiáng)化災(zāi)情調(diào)查核實(shí)工作。對于重大災(zāi)情，應(yīng)組織人員深入災(zāi)區(qū)實(shí)際調(diào)查，全面搜集有關(guān)情況，核實(shí)災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，分析災(zāi)情成因，做好減災(zāi)評價(jià)工作。同時(shí)，涉及非水利的災(zāi)害損失，要加強(qiáng)與民政、國土、農(nóng)業(yè)、交通等有關(guān)部門的溝通聯(lián)系，建立統(tǒng)計(jì)信息互報(bào)機(jī)制，避免發(fā)生信息渠道不一、數(shù)據(jù)矛盾的情況發(fā)生，保證災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)的準(zhǔn)確性和權(quán)威性。

這種潛移默化的規(guī)范和引導(dǎo)，營造了良好的勵(lì)志教育的校園環(huán)境。思政工作者要善于抓住學(xué)生課余、自習(xí)時(shí)間，對學(xué)生可能存在的理想信念模糊、價(jià)值取向扭曲、艱苦奮斗精神弱化、社會責(zé)任感缺乏的現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行分析與解決，為勵(lì)志教育增添光彩。通過對典型人物或先進(jìn)事跡的宣傳，增強(qiáng)學(xué)生的競爭意識，帶動學(xué)生“學(xué)比趕幫超”的熱情，通過榜樣的力量促使學(xué)生的道德觀、價(jià)值觀、人生觀得到提升。勵(lì)志成才，燃起學(xué)生心中希望之火；樹立榜樣，讓學(xué)生朝著目標(biāo)果敢前行。

五是建設(shè)完善災(zāi)情分析評價(jià)體系。各級防汛指揮機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)提高洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)水平，加強(qiáng)災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)分析研究，科學(xué)編制各個(gè)區(qū)域洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)圖，建設(shè)包括人口、房屋、道路、農(nóng)作物、工礦企業(yè)、電力通信等重要信息的洪水風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析平臺，形成集基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)分析、洪澇災(zāi)情信息分析、防汛指揮決策分析、防災(zāi)減災(zāi)效益分析等為一體的防災(zāi)減災(zāi)分析評價(jià)系統(tǒng)，進(jìn)一步完善洪澇災(zāi)情建設(shè)體系，為科學(xué)研究判定各類險(xiǎn)情災(zāi)情提供保障。

六是加強(qiáng)災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)能力建設(shè)。各級防汛指揮機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)按照災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作的要求，大力加強(qiáng)災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，配備必要的信息處理采集設(shè)備，改善災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件使用環(huán)境；應(yīng)加強(qiáng)災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)隊(duì)伍建設(shè)，穩(wěn)定災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)隊(duì)伍，強(qiáng)化災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)人員培訓(xùn)工作，提升統(tǒng)計(jì)人員能力水平，確保災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作順暢。

七是加強(qiáng)對災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作的組織領(lǐng)導(dǎo)。各級防汛指揮機(jī)構(gòu)應(yīng)進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化對洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作，專門對洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作進(jìn)行安排部署，切實(shí)實(shí)行防辦主要領(lǐng)導(dǎo)負(fù)總責(zé)、分管領(lǐng)導(dǎo)具體抓的工作體制，具體落實(shí)好統(tǒng)計(jì)責(zé)任人，嚴(yán)格落實(shí)工作職責(zé)和任務(wù)，進(jìn)一步規(guī)范統(tǒng)計(jì)報(bào)表填報(bào)、審核、審查程序，確保洪澇災(zāi)情統(tǒng)計(jì)工作的質(zhì)量和效果。

［Abstract］The paper introduces the main technique measures in the construction of cast-in-place girder with the movable module in the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway，which include the technique index，assembly technique，cross span control，cast-in-place girder construction and safety control.Furthermore，the effect analysis，the new technique and method in the construction and the safety management measure are introduced.

［Key words］movable module，cast-in-place girder，construction technique

［Abstract］The surface pre-grouting treatment measure with single cement slurry is used in construction of project. Based on the actual terrain and the geology condition，the construction scheme of surface grouting is adopted to reinforce the surrounding rock of cavern.Because the grouting range and drilling layout are similar to the slab culvert shape of the highway，this construction scheme of surface pre-grouting is named the slab culvert type grouting.The paper introduces in detail the design parameter and the range of grouting，the drilling layout，the construction technique，the quality inspection method and result，and so on.

［Abstract］Nierji reservoir and Fengman reservoir are the important control water conservancy projects in Songhuajiang river basin.The great floods which frequency is less than 2%happened sequentially for the two reservoirs in 2013.The two reservoirs play the great role in retaining flood，cutting down flood peak，shifting flood peak and decreasing the flood control pressure of the lower reaches.Through the effective regulations of the two reservoirs，the flood frequency of middle and lower reaches of Nenjiang river basin has been decreased to between 5%and 10%，the flood frequency of lower reaches of the second Songhuajiang river basin has been decreased to more than 20%，the flood frequency of Songhuajiang river basin has been decreased to between 5% and 10%.

［Key words］Songhuajiang river basin；Nierji reservoir；Fengman reservoir；flood retaining effect

［Abstract］The underground powerhouse of Huanggou pumped storage power station is the underground cavern group with about 300m buried depth.The largest working head of pressure pipe with reinforced concrete lining is about 700m.Therefore，the rational test method must be adopted to carry out the high pressure water pressure test for the water diversion branch pipe，the seepage characteristics，seepage stability and critical pressure of the surrounding rock of high pressure branch pipe are determined under the high water head.

［Key words］Huanggou pumped storage power station；high pressure water pressure test；critical pressure

［Abstract］The paper studies the influence of different varieties air entraining agents on the concrete water reducing ratio，the gas content，the variation of gas content in 1h，the compressive strength ratio and the frost resistance effect，analyzes the differences of the various air entraining agents，which could provide the basis for the selection and application of air entraining agent.

［Key words］air entraining agent；water reducing ratio；gas content；compressive strength ratio；frost resistance

［Abstract］Mercury is a persistent and extremely toxicity pollutant in the global cycle and has great damage to water environment and human health.At present，there are mainly three methods of the determination of mercury in surface water，which are the thermal atomic fluorescence method，the cold atomic fluorescence method and cold atomic absorption method.The three methods have respective characteristics in mercury determination. Based on the large number of experimental data，the optimization conditions of each method are summarized. Through the comparative analysis of three methods，the most suitable method of mercury determination in surface water of Liaohe river basin is obtained

［Key words］mercury；thermal atomic fluorescence；cold atomic fluorescence；cold atomic absorption

［Abstract］The paper demonstrates reservoir inflow volume，peak discharge and peak time in different conditions of soil water content and precipitation and calculates the anti storm capacity of reservoir in different conditions of soil water content and regulation priming level.The study shows that water storage of reservoir is more than average water storage after flood period for many years and the volume of detention flood is more after reservoir forecasted flood operation.Combining reservoir simulation forecast with reservoir forecasted flood operation，taking forecast flood volume of reservoir inflow as criterion condition，taking flood control level as control condition，the flood could realize the uniform discharge in advance through the reservoir operation.The maximum utilizable benefit of reservoir is satisfied under the premise of ensuring flood control benefit，which could improve flood water utilization efficiency to realize flood water utilization.

［Key words］Huludao；reservoir；flood water utilization；reservoir flood control operation

［中圖分類號］F4

［文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼］B

［文章編號］1002－0624（2016）02－0069－02

［收稿日期］#2015-06-23

Influence of fault on arch dam abutment deformation

JIN Hui，XIA Hui，LIU Li，DU Wen-cai

［Abstract］Concrete arch dam of Gaixiaba hydropower station is built on limestone of the lower series of Triassic Jialingjiang formation.The limestone is hard，integrated and uniform，with the high deformation modulus.The fault number is less and scale of the fault is small，their shapes are all narrow and long and there are many fragment and debris in the faults.Through the calculation analysis of fault compression by using the plane finite element，the result shows that the compression of fault is limited and has little impact on arch dam abutment deformation due to the factors of high deformation modulus of arch dam abutment rock and small scale fault，and so on.

［Key words］abutment fault；compression deformation；elliptic double-curvature arch dam；Gaixiaba hydropower station

Construction technique of cast-in-place concrete simple-supported box girder with bridge fabrication machine

TAN Jun-ning

Technique of slab culvert type surface grouting for water conveyance tunnel crossing river

ZONG Zhao-bo

Analysis of retaining effect of Fengman reservoir and Nierji reservoir in Songhuajiang river basin

XUE Mei，F(xiàn)ENG Yan，ZHOU Xuan，SUN Qi-wei

Method discussion and result analysis of high pressure water pressure test for tunnel branch pipe

LIU Lu-jun，JI Cong

Difference study on influence of different kinds of air entraining agent on concrete performance

LI Yuan，GAO Kuan

Comparison study on mercury determination method in surface water

ZHENG Guo-chen，PENG Jun，ZHAO Zhe，LIN Guang yu

Simulation study on reservoir regulation of flood water resources utilization in Huludao area

JIN Xin