Peaceful Central Asia but with Unpredictable Prospects

Pan Zhiping

?

Peaceful Central Asia but with Unpredictable Prospects

Pan Zhiping

Pan Zhiping is a professor at the Center for Geopolitical Studies at the Central Asia Research Institute, Xinjiang University.

Stable Political Environment with Uncertainties

The big events in Central Asia in 2015 were the presidential elections held in the region’s largest country Kazakhstan and most populous country Uzbekistan. Nursultan ?bishuly Nazarbayev was reelected as the president of Kazakhstan and Islam Karimov was reelected as Uzbekistan’s president, indicating their ability to control the situations in the two countries remains strong.

It has been 24 years since Central Asian countries regained their independence, during which Nazarbayev and Karimov have always been the presidents of their countries. They remain in power despite the “color revolutions”in Central Asia and the Middle East. Why so? After more than 20 years of nation-building, the governance of Central Asian countries is now relatively mature and social conflicts are not particularly sharp. More importantly, Central Asian countries have not witnessed the appearance of the “human rights fighters”with which the West is familiar. Besides, during these years the United States has focused on its “rebalancing”to the Asia-Pacific and the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, and has had no time for Central Asian affairs. Therefore, Central Asian countries will not see another “color revolution”for the time being.

That being said, the region will not always be a harbor of peace. AsKonstantin Syroyezhkin, a senior Kazakhstan scholar, has pointed out: “The situation in Kyrgyzstan makes people feel that any regime can be replaced, and any power shift is spontaneous. In the other four Central Asian countries we will come to the same conclusion, which is very important.”1“Interview with Konstantin Syroyezhkin,”Xinhua News Agency, June 13, 2010.Although the five Central Asian countries have been as peaceful as still water over the past five years, when the strength of the undercurrent reaches a certain level, it could become disastrous under appropriate conditions and opportunities. Among all the uncertainties, the most important will be the transfer of power in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. As the two presidents are getting older, their transfer of power is only a matter of time. But how their power will be transferred remains uncertain. For the power transfers in other regional countries, including the power succession of Ilham Aliyev and his son in Azerbaijan and Russia’s transfer of power from Yeltsin to Putin, or the transfer of power from Saparmurat Niyazov to Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow in Turkmenistan, the top priority was always to ensure a peaceful transition. Should any country suffer from unrest, it will pose a severe threat to the security and stability of Central Asia.

There are two external factors affecting the political situation in Central Asia: One is Afghanistan’s reconstruction process, the other is the wars and turmoil in the Middle East. With the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan, if the peace process is not smooth, or another civil war breaks out, then the situation will threaten the security and stability of Central Asia. In September 2015, the Taliban invaded Kunduz, an important provincial capital in northern Afghanistan. Although the Taliban soon withdrew, it was its greatest military victory in the past 14 years. Kunduz is only 60 kilometers from the Tajik border. Separated from Tajikistan by a river, the city used to be under the control of the Northern Alliance. In the future, should the possibility of another civil war in Afghanistan increase, the risks from the spillover of terrorism and violence will also grow. Meanwhile, the rise of the Islamic State group (IS) in recent years has increased the turmoil in theMiddle East. It is reported that IS not only recruits members in Afghanistan, but also absorbs extremists from Central Asia wanting to join the jihadists in Syria. The possibility of IS’ influence spreading to Central Asia has put the Central Asian countries on high alert. In September 2015, Major General Abduhalim Nazarzoda, Tajikistan’s deputy defense minister, planned and carried out a coup, which was identified by the country’s Ministry of Internal Affairs as a “terrorist incident.”The ministry further pointed out that it was Nazarzoda and his 135 followers that planned and carried out this attack. The Tajik government announced that Nazarzoda was killed on September 16. During that anti-terrorist action, a total of 14 SWAT policemen were killed, 25 armed men were shot dead, and 125 people were arrested. Although this incident has come to an end for now, it may have involved the IS. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rakhmon said that IS militants were found among the rebels.2“Tajikesitan Qian Gaoguan Zhengbian Shibai Canbing Baijiang Taoru Xiagu”[Tajikistan’s Former Top Official Failed in a Coup d’état, Discomfited Troops Escaped to a Valley], September 8, 2015, http://www. cankaoxiaoxi.com/mil/20150908/931900.shtml.Arkady Dubnov, an expert on Central Asian issues, said that “Today’s Tajikistan has become a place contested by Salafismists, supported by Sunnis in Saudi Arabia, and Iran’s Shia. Iran worries that Tajikistan may become a hereditary territory of the Sunni so it has tried to infiltrate into many sectors of Tajik society.”

At present, IS’ threat to Central Asia has yet to be felt. As Central Asia is highly secular, it is harder for extremist forces to affect this region as a whole. But in some areas, such as Tajikistan, combating extremism, terrorism and violence remains a daunting task. From this perspective, there are still variables in the security situation in Central Asia.

Alignment of the Silk Road Economic Belt with the Development Strategies of Countries in the Region

The Silk Road Economic Belt proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 has had great influence in Central Asia over the past year.

The Council of the SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure vows to reinforce anti-terrorism cooperation,Tashkent,Uzbekistan, April 10, 2015.

The countries of Central Asia used to be territories of the Russian Empire, and were later part of the former Soviet Union. Although more than 20 years have passed since Central Asian countries became independent, lots of Russian politicians still regard the region as Russia’s “backyard,”and Russia has set up a series of reliable and operable platforms, such as Commonwealth of the Independent States (CIS), the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Eurasian Economic Community, and so on. On January 1, 2015, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU) was officially launched. Kyrgyzstan joined in May 2015, and Tajikistan is studying whether to join. In June 2015, the London-based Saferworld released a research report titled “Central Asia at a Crossroads,”that concluded “Russia seems likely to remain for now the most prominent external power in Central Asia”and “Russia, the pre-eminent security actor in Central Asia, is inevitably apprehensive about China’s economic rise but also about its military modernization program.”“While it cannot compete with China’s economic expansion,”it stated, “a resurgent Russia under President Putin is determined to reassert its role in the Central Asia region. The expansion of the EEU can be seen in part as anattempt to counter the influence of the SCO.”When China first raised the concept of a Silk Road Economic Belt, voices of doubt were heard in Russia’s political circle.3Safterworld, Central Asia at a Crossroads: Russia and China’s Changing Roles in the Region and the Implications for Peace and Stability, June 2015.It was not until the Winter Olympics in Sochi, during which Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin met face to face, that Russia started to show some understanding of the initiative. In May 2015, the leaders of China and Russia signed a joint statement on the alignment of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Eurasian Economic Union, and took the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as the first platform for cooperation. Nevertheless, China and Russia still have a different understanding of this initiative. For example, the expression “alignment”(dиijie in Chinese) is translated as cooperation or conjunction (сompудничeсmвo, сonpяжeниe in Russia). “The cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road will bring about common economic space.”The sentence puts emphasis on “cooperation”(сompудничeсmвo),4Путин: Сотрудничество ЕАЭС и ?Шелкового пути? ведет к общему экономическому пространству. //Взгляд. 8 мая 2015,http://vz.ru/news/2015/5/8/744325.html.while the Russian version of a China Radio International (CRI) report stresses the word “alignment”(сmыкoвкa).5Стыковка экономического пояса Шелкового пути и ЕАЭС способствует формированию общества общей судьбы и сообщества интересов. // Международное Радио Китая. 11 Декарбя 2015, http:// russian.cri.cn/841/2015/12/11/1s568543.htm.It should be recognized that it is an extremely difficult problem how to smoothly align the totally open Silk Road Economic Belt with the exclusive EEU. Both China and Russia have started research on this issue. Ivan Zuenko believes that this is a contemporary challenge for Russia.6Ивaн Зуeнкo Подключение Евразийский экономический союз и Шелковый путь экономического пояса: Современные проблемы и вызовы для России. //Китай в центральной Азии. 30 Октября 2015, http://chinaincentralasia.com/2015/10/30/connecting-the-eurasian-economic-union-and-the-silk-roadeconomic-belt-current-problems-and-challenges-for-russia/?lang=ru.In an interview, the Deputy Director of the Russian Institute of the Far East,Andrey Ostrovsky, said that “Actually even we ourselves have no idea how to cooperate with the Chinese under the framework of Silk Road Economic Belt. It is regrettable we have made no progress.”7Aндpeй Ивaнoв Итоги-2015: Россия и Китай дружат без торговли:Москва и Пекин смогли найти взаимопонимание только в сфере геополитики.//Свобная Пресса. 26 декабря 2015, http://svpressa.ru/ politic/article/139057/.

It should be recognized that it is an extremely difficult problem how to smoothly align the totally open Silk Road Economic Belt with the exclusive EEU.

Different from Russia, Central Asian countries have actively responded to the initiative of a Silk Road Economic Belt. In his State of the Nation Address in 2015, Kazakhstan’s President Nazarbayev put forward a strategy for national development called “NurlyZhol”(Bright Path), aimed at vigorously promoting infrastructure building, with priority given to the improvement of transportation links. This move has triggered the media’s heated discussion about the relationship between the country’s Bright Path and China’s Silk Road Economic Belt.8“Kazakhstan: The Surprising Connection between the Bright Path and the Silk Road,”O(jiān)riental Morning Post, December 9, 2014;“Ambassador to Kazakhstan: The Surprising Connection between the Bright Path and the Silk Road,”Xinhиa Dailу Telegraph, September 11, 2015.With a land area of 2,724,900 square kilometers, Kazakhstan is situated between the European and Asian continents. It is the world’s largest landlocked country, and one of the most important countries in Central Asia. Carrying 70 percent of its freight and 60 percent of its passengers, railways are the lifeblood of the Kazakhstan economy. Railway building in Kazakhstan began in the era of Czarist Russia (1894), with 14,000 km of railways built in more than 100 years. Westward outbound railways head in two directions: One is the New Eurasian Land Bridge which connects with Kazakhstan’s railway in the north. The other connects with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and further extends to Iran. However, there is not a major railway that links the east and the west. Besides, the infrastructure of Kazakhstan is ageing. Rolling stock is used longer than its expected lifetime, and the modernization of road facilities is urgently needed. In recent years, Kazakhstan has made substantial investments in building new railways. The Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway, which is 928 km in length, started operation at the end of 2014. Nazarbayev believes that by connecting the railwaysof China and Kazakhstan, this railway will become the “New Silk Road”for the three countries to reach the Asia-Pacific region.9“Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran International Railway Has Opened,”chinanews.com, December 4, 2014.The 988 km-long Zhezkazgan-Beyneu railway is expected to connect the country’s east and west after its completion in 2016.10“The Construction Plans for the Two Railways of Kazakhstan,”chinaccm.com, April 8, 2013.Thus, a comprehensive railway network in Kazakhstan is basically taking shape. It starts from the Alataw pass at the Chinese border in the east, runs through Beyneu to the Caspian Sea port of Aktau, and then on to Azerbaijan. It can connect with the Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia (TRACECA) program to directly reach Europe.11The Transport Corridor Europe Caucasus Asia (TRACECA) program was launched in 1993. It is a multilateral agreement on international transport and road construction and development among the EU, Caucasus and Central Asian countries. Its member states include 14 countries from the European Union, Eastern Europe, South Caucasus and Central Asia. Its permanent Secretariat is set in Baku. The program aims to build an intercontinental channel that connects Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Working groups have been set for transport by sea, air, road, and rail, as well as road safety and transport infrastructure.It can also connect with Uzen in the south, and onwards to Iran, and also run westward to Turkey, and later connect with TRACECA. TRACECA has been in operation for more than 10 years. The Istanbul sea-crossing tunnel completed in October 2013 is a significant achievement of the program. In January 2016, a freight train started from Ukraine’s Ilichovsk, crossed the Black Sea, Georgia and Azerbaijan, and later the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan, and eventually arrived in China. It is a new Silk Road train that bypasses Russia.12“Ukraine to Open a ‘New Silk Road Train’to China,”Reference News, January 18, 2016.For Ukraine, through TRACECA, it can reach China without passing through Russia; for China, it is one more convenient route to ship goods to Europe with lower costs.

Different from Russia, Central Asian countries have actively responded to the initiative of a Silk Road Economic Belt.

The cooperation and alignment of the economic development strategies of China and Kazakhstan are not only limited to railways. They also involve the development of expressways, aviation and oil and gas pipelines, aswell as other areas such as productivity, finance and agriculture. Chinese Ambassador to Kazakhstan Zhang Hanhui said, “The two sides are vigorously promoting the strategic alignment of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Bright Path new economic policy, and actively carrying out productivity cooperation. Both countries have shown great enthusiasm for cooperation, as well as efficient and pragmatic actions in such fields as connectivity and infrastructure construction. As of now, the two sides have signed a series of cooperation agreements on more than 45 projects, involving more than $23 billion.”13“Chinese Ambassador to Kazakhstan Zhang Hanhui in an Interview to Kazakhstan’s Website Bnews. kz,”Chinese Embassy to Kazakhstan, November 17, 2015.In January 2016, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture and major Chinese agricultural product processing enterprises signed 19 projects, with a total investment of $1.74 billion. It has been a major breakthrough for China-Kazakh cooperation in a non-resource area, which is in line with the interests of the two countries.14РК и КНР реализуют 19 проектов в сфере АПК на 1,735 млрд долларов. // Daily News. 25 Января 2016, http://www.dailynews.kz/economics/rk_i_knr_realizujut_19_proektov_v_sfere_apk_na_1735_mlrd_ dollarov_.The China-Kazakh Economic Corridor is the most hopeful and promising project among all the “China-Central Asia-West Asia corridors.”The Kazakhstan scholar Aydar Amrbaev commented that “Our development strategies are so smoothly aligned with each other that we can call them a ‘Bright Silk Road’.”15Speech given by Aydar Amrbaev (АйдарАмрбаев), former deputy director of Kazakhstan World Politics and Economy Institute, on December 15, 2015 in China Institute of International Studies’International Symposium on the Regional Situation of Central Asia 2015.

The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which has been planned for 18 years, is expected to start construction in 2016. In 1997, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan agreed to build a railway together. Initially, there were two plans: a southern line (reaching out Irkeshtam) and a northern line (from Torugart). After years of discussions, the northern line has been chosen. Covering 577 km, it will start from China’s Kashi then head northward to the Torugart Pass, crossing the mountainous regions of Kyrgyzstan, and reaching Andijan in Uzbekistan. However, problems such as Kyrgyzstan’s lack of funds, technical standards concerning track gauge andothers, as well as turmoil such as a “color revolution,”as well as Kyrgyzstan’s overall consideration about the project, the key reason for the delay, mean it is on hold for now. Kyrgyzstan urgently needed to resolve the problem of transport in the north-south direction. As the “southern capital”O(jiān)sh and the national capital Bishkek in the north suffer from bad transport links, the country is faced with a North-South separation economically and even politically. However, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway only passes through the southern part of the country, which is not able to address this major need. At the end of 2015, Kyrgyz Prime Minister TemirSariyev and President Aten Mba Aliyev almost simultaneously expressed their support for the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Aten Mba Aliyev even suggested that a transshipment station be set up when the railway enters the Kyrgyz borders, or in Naryn.16“Kyrgyz Prime Minister Temir Sariyev Hopes to Promote the Construction Project of China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway,”sina.com, December 23, 2015, http://finance.Sina.com.CN/roll/2015-12-23/doc-ifxmxxst0332949.shtml; Economic and Commercial Counselor’s Office of the Chinese Embassy to Kyrgyzstan, “Kyrgyz President Aten Mba Aliyev Voices His Support for China-Kyrgyzstan Railway Project,”December 25, 2015.Generally speaking, Kyrgyzstan wishes to consider the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the North-South railway as a whole. In addition, as the other end of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway connects with the railway network built in the era of former Soviet Union, it can link with Turkmenistan and beyond. However, that railway is already old, and is highly inconvenient as it has to pass Tajikistan’s Khujand. In recent years, Uzbekistan has been building a railway connecting the capital of Tashkent and Fergana, which also crosses the Qurama Mountains. The key project, the Kamchik Tunnel, is being undertaken by China, which is expected to be completed in 2016.17At 2,267 meters above sea level, the Kamchik Pass is located around 100 kilometers east of Tashkent.

The Kazakhstan scholar Aydar Amrbaev commented that “Our development strategies are so smoothly aligned with each other that we can call them a ‘Bright Silk Road’.”

It can be predicted that the completion of the above railways willforge corridors of economic cooperation that start from China’s Kashi, pass through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and reach West Asia. In 2016, the economic corridor built by China and Kazakhstan is likely to witness an encouraging start.

A Daunting Economic Crisis

The sharp fall in international oil prices and the Russian rouble, which began in the fourth quarter of 2014, has left the Russian economy in a particularly difficult situation. By January 21, 2016, Brent crude plummeted to $27.79 per barrel. Against this background, global stock markets plummeted.18“Black Thursday! 393! USD/tenge Exchange Rate Sets Fresh Record,”Kazakhstan-Info, January 21, 2016.Some have pointed out that what happened in 2008 was only a financial crisis, but in 2016 there will be a formidable economic crisis.

That’s just a fact. On August 20, 2015, the Kazakhstan Central Bank enabled a free floating exchange rate mechanism. On the same day, the exchange rate between the US dollar and the tenge soared from 1:188.38 to 1:255.26. On January 1, 2016, 1 US dollar equaled 343.11 tenge. On January 21, 2016, or “Black Thursday,”the tenge selling rate against the dollar hit 393. So how has Kazak currency come all the way down? In 2004 it was 1:120, in 2008 it was 1:150, and in 2016 it is likely to go beyond 1:400.

According to immigration statistics of the Russian Federation, with Kyrgyzstan joining the Eurasian Economic Union in August 2015, the procedures for Kyrgyz citizens wanting to work and stay in Russia have been constantly simplified. As a result, the number of Kyrgyz people entering Russia for work has been on the rise, currently about 554,000. However, as the Russian economy is in depression after the devaluation of the rouble, Kyrgyzstan’s total overseas remittance decreased by one-third in 2015, although the number of Kyrgyz workers in Russia increased. Moreover, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are two major sources of foreign workers. But as they are not member states of EEU, their citizens are more “discriminated”against by Russian policies while they are working and staying in the country, which has led to the decrease of workers from those two countries and a sharper decrease of overseas remittance for the two countries.19Source: Economic and Commercial Counselor’s Office of the Chinese Embassy to Kyrgyzstan.

For Central Asian countries, the plunge in oil prices has been a terrible thing. The economic structures of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are similar to that of Russia, being highly reliant on their oil and gas industries. The declines in oil and gas prices have constituted a major blow to their economies. The plummeting oil and gas prices have also directly contributing to the devaluation of the Russian rouble and Kazak tenge as well as other Central Asian currencies. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are relatively poor countries with a lack of oil and gas resources. Overseas remittance contributed by citizens working in Russia constitutes an important part of household incomes and the national income. However, both household incomes and the national income have decreased sharply side by side with the substantial devaluation of the rouble. In addition to energy, Uzbekistan’s manufacturing industry is also quite developed. But as it also has a large number of migrant workers in Russia, so the country is also affected.

Generally speaking, Central Asia is relatively peaceful for now, but it is difficult to predict its future.

Generally speaking, Central Asia is relatively peaceful for now, but it is difficult to predict its future. Based on the positive responses the Silk Road Economic Belt received in Central Asia in 2015, the construction of China-Kazakhstan Economic Corridor is expected to make even more progress in 2016. But with the global economic downturn, particularly the fall of oil and gas prices and the struggling Russian economy, the economic deterioration of Central Asian countries has continued. Even if the Central Asian countries are able to avoid a total collapse, ordinary people will still find life difficult. It remains to be seen whether this economic crisis will trigger social unrest, or turn into a political crisis.