越南二次革新即將到來(lái)？

□ 文/本刊記者 黎敏

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越南二次革新即將到來(lái)？

□ 文/本刊記者 黎敏

說(shuō)到越南的革新開(kāi)放，很多人會(huì)想到中國(guó)的改革開(kāi)放。改革開(kāi)放給中國(guó)帶來(lái)了翻天覆地的變化，革新開(kāi)放也照亮了越南的發(fā)展之路。從曾經(jīng)世界上最貧窮的國(guó)家，到經(jīng)濟(jì)總量排名世界第50的中等收入國(guó)家；從封閉落后的國(guó)度到外商投資的熱土，革新開(kāi)放30年，越南發(fā)展的成就有目共睹。

中國(guó)古語(yǔ)有云“三十而立”，意指三十歲左右應(yīng)有所成就，對(duì)于“三十而立”的越南革新開(kāi)放而言，也正好借此節(jié)點(diǎn)，總結(jié)過(guò)去規(guī)劃未來(lái)。而著眼當(dāng)下，內(nèi)需疲軟、走出金融危機(jī)、調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)依舊是越南發(fā)展必須直面的問(wèn)題，重任在肩，越南的革新開(kāi)放又將何去何從？

越南的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)變得更加合理。

2015年，越南出口額達(dá)1600億美元左右，是1995年的30倍；累計(jì)吸收外資項(xiàng)目1.9萬(wàn)個(gè)，合同總額約2600億美元。

黎明前的曙光

時(shí)間回到30年前，1986年的越南正醞釀著一次關(guān)鍵性的變革。當(dāng)時(shí)的越南因?yàn)殚L(zhǎng)期內(nèi)外困局，國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)可謂是滿(mǎn)目瘡痍，通貨膨脹率高達(dá)774.7%，人民生活可想而知，這個(gè)統(tǒng)一了10年的國(guó)家亟待一縷黎明前的曙光照亮前路。

也就是在中國(guó)實(shí)施改革開(kāi)放后的8年，越南提出了“革新開(kāi)放”的主張，翻開(kāi)了發(fā)展的嶄新一頁(yè)。在這一年，越南通過(guò)了《2000年前越南經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略》。這份文件不僅明確提出要在各領(lǐng)域建立商品經(jīng)濟(jì)體制，還要在堅(jiān)持社會(huì)主義方向前提下推進(jìn)革新開(kāi)放。當(dāng)時(shí)越南提出的目標(biāo)是，到2000年時(shí)越南人均國(guó)民生產(chǎn)總值翻一番。轉(zhuǎn)眼三十年，這一目標(biāo)如今早已實(shí)現(xiàn)。

根據(jù)越南《經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)報(bào)》回顧越南革新開(kāi)放30年成果的報(bào)道來(lái)看：革新開(kāi)放至今，越南經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模是30年前的7000倍；在1991～1995年期間，越南GDP平均增速一度達(dá)到8.2%；人均收入更是達(dá)到2200美元以上，較革新之初翻了近6倍。

而經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)也變得更為合理：截止2015年，越南農(nóng)業(yè)占GDP的比重已從1985年的40%降至17%，工業(yè)則從27%提高至40%左右；國(guó)企對(duì)GDP貢獻(xiàn)從1995年的40%降至33%，外資企業(yè)（FDI）對(duì)GDP貢獻(xiàn)則由6.3%提高至20%。一降一升間，反映的正是越南經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的平衡之道。此外，越南的大米、咖啡、胡椒和水產(chǎn)品出口量已跑在了世界的前列。

在政治革新穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)之下，開(kāi)放的春風(fēng)迎面吹來(lái)，越南不僅向世界敞開(kāi)了合作的大門(mén)，也積極融入了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的懷抱。2015年，越南出口額達(dá)1600億美元左右，是1995年的30倍；累計(jì)吸收外資項(xiàng)目1.9萬(wàn)個(gè)，合同總額約2600億美元。與此同時(shí)，東盟共同體、跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系等多個(gè)協(xié)定的簽訂，與中國(guó)、東盟國(guó)家等傳統(tǒng)伙伴的貿(mào)易額持續(xù)攀升，給越南經(jīng)濟(jì)極大的信心，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在2015年創(chuàng)下了近5年來(lái)的最高水平。一個(gè)個(gè)耀眼的數(shù)字亦成為了越南革新開(kāi)放30載最直觀的成績(jī)單。

從“特困戶(hù)”到“新寵兒”

在革新開(kāi)放之初，越南是人均收入只有100美元的“特困戶(hù)”，國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)十分薄弱，如何燃起這經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的第一星火苗，越南決定通過(guò)引進(jìn)外資向外“借個(gè)火”。而最首要的任務(wù)，就是要制定一部務(wù)實(shí)的新外國(guó)投資法。

1988年越南新的《外國(guó)投資法》應(yīng)運(yùn)而生，當(dāng)年4月，越南就批準(zhǔn)了第一個(gè)外商投資項(xiàng)目。翻開(kāi)這部新的《外國(guó)投資法》可以看到越南引進(jìn)外資的誠(chéng)意：

允許外國(guó)企業(yè)投資興辦企業(yè)，甚至是獨(dú)資企業(yè)；對(duì)合資企業(yè)征收15～25%的法人所得稅，從計(jì)算利潤(rùn)開(kāi)始，兩年內(nèi)免征，其后的兩年減半征收；進(jìn)口原材料和生產(chǎn)設(shè)備原則上不征稅。一條條法規(guī)，意味著越南用法律形式向世界宣布：在越南投資已幾乎沒(méi)有領(lǐng)域限制（具體仍需要審核）、沒(méi)有投資比例的限制、也沒(méi)有投資伙伴的限制。

因此，在這之后，外資進(jìn)入越南的速度明顯加快。根據(jù)外部環(huán)境的變化，越南國(guó)會(huì)又在1992年和1996年對(duì)《外國(guó)投資法》進(jìn)行了兩次大的修訂，包括在越南政府指定的重要領(lǐng)域逐步增大越南合資方的投資比例；以及將外資企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)年限延長(zhǎng)至50～70年等內(nèi)容。法律的日益完善，不僅增添了外商投資的信心，也讓世界看到了越南開(kāi)放的決心，使越南逐漸成為了外商投資的“新寵兒”。

瑞士《新蘇黎世報(bào)》網(wǎng)站2016年2月24日?qǐng)?bào)道稱(chēng)：眼下越南已經(jīng)在東南亞國(guó)家中引發(fā)轟動(dòng)；越南雖沒(méi)有印尼的消費(fèi)潛力，也沒(méi)有馬來(lái)西亞的現(xiàn)代化基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，但是它現(xiàn)在卻顯示出改革的意愿，并對(duì)外國(guó)投資者開(kāi)放。報(bào)道認(rèn)為，如今要找消除貧困、勞動(dòng)力可靠或者是地理多樣的典范的話，人們會(huì)望向越南，因?yàn)檠巯略侥霞磳⒊霈F(xiàn)一波國(guó)有企業(yè)私有化的浪潮，外國(guó)資金和技術(shù)將令它們現(xiàn)代化。而且近1億消費(fèi)者的市場(chǎng)也十分誘人。

那么對(duì)于越南而言，外資到底有多重要呢？來(lái)看一組數(shù)字：截止2015年，外資企業(yè)對(duì)越南GDP貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)20%，占社會(huì)總投資的20%，占越南工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的50%，出口占2/3，為200多萬(wàn)人提供就業(yè)。不過(guò)，這個(gè)相對(duì)依賴(lài)外資的東盟國(guó)家也曾經(jīng)在亞洲金融危機(jī)中飽嘗寒意，因此逐步從金融危機(jī)中復(fù)蘇的越南，雖然依舊把引進(jìn)外資作為開(kāi)放的重頭戲，但也學(xué)會(huì)了“不把雞蛋放在一個(gè)籃子里”，其未來(lái)的革新開(kāi)放之路或許將越走越寬敞。

醞釀中的二次革新？

在當(dāng)前的國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下，各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展似乎都難以獨(dú)善其身。越南計(jì)劃投資部部長(zhǎng)裴光榮認(rèn)為，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退對(duì)越南影響非常明顯，現(xiàn)有的內(nèi)在結(jié)構(gòu)已經(jīng)不符合新形勢(shì)下的發(fā)展需要了。通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革，打造新的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力迫在眉睫。

越南計(jì)劃投資部副部長(zhǎng)阮志勇此前稱(chēng)，越南GDP的增長(zhǎng)速度的不穩(wěn)定，從短期看，是受內(nèi)需疲軟及經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的影響；從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，是因?yàn)閲?guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡，依靠投資和勞動(dòng)密集型的增長(zhǎng)模式效率低下；正處于轉(zhuǎn)型期的國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)還缺乏穩(wěn)固基礎(chǔ)，出口貿(mào)易仍依賴(lài)于外資企業(yè)等原因。那么針對(duì)這些問(wèn)題，越南的革新開(kāi)放之路又將何去何從呢？

2016年1月，決定越南未來(lái)五年發(fā)展方向的越南共產(chǎn)黨第十二次全國(guó)代表大會(huì)上，越共中央總書(shū)記阮富仲表示，未來(lái)5年，越南社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的重點(diǎn)任務(wù)是集中力量提升經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)質(zhì)量、勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力；繼續(xù)有效開(kāi)展3項(xiàng)戰(zhàn)略性突破；經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)重組與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)革新相結(jié)合；加強(qiáng)國(guó)家工業(yè)化、現(xiàn)代化，注重新農(nóng)村建設(shè)。

此外，會(huì)議文件中還首次出現(xiàn)了“私營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)是越南經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要?jiǎng)恿χ弧钡谋硎觯又┠陙?lái)開(kāi)始加大對(duì)國(guó)有企業(yè)股份制改革的舉措，表明越南已越發(fā)重視私營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)在國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)成分中的重要地位。但是，越南堅(jiān)持社會(huì)主義定向市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的總原則不會(huì)改變，國(guó)有經(jīng)濟(jì)依然是經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的中流砥柱。

有學(xué)者表示，重視發(fā)展私營(yíng)經(jīng)濟(jì)是為越南現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)創(chuàng)造更加多元的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力，促使國(guó)有經(jīng)濟(jì)在經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)中更有效率，使得越南可以逐漸適應(yīng)和加快步伐融入世界經(jīng)濟(jì)。

隨著越南經(jīng)濟(jì)從“量”的積累邁向“質(zhì)”的提升，外商投資者或許更應(yīng)該考慮像瑞士《新蘇黎世報(bào)》網(wǎng)站報(bào)道的那樣，將目光投向越南國(guó)有企業(yè)現(xiàn)代化的浪潮中。

“越南革新開(kāi)放30年來(lái)取得了巨大成就，但如今依然面臨著經(jīng)濟(jì)落后的危機(jī)”。正如阮富仲所說(shuō)，如何破解現(xiàn)有難題，使國(guó)家進(jìn)一步沿著社會(huì)主義定向市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的原則發(fā)展，也許經(jīng)濟(jì)上的二次革新十分必要。

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The Textile Industry: Are There Opportunities This Year?

By Araminta Setyawati

T he economic slowdown in 2015 in Indonesia is still having a painful impact on several industries.One of these is the textile and textile products sector (TPT).The performance of this industry is expected to remain sluggish throughout 2016 due to a lack of positive sentiment that might lift it out of its mire.

A global recovery is still elusive along with a domestic economy that has yet to any show sign of improvement.The chairman of the Indonesian Textile Association (API), Ade Sudrajat, is pessimistic about the TPT sector seeing any increased growth in the next year.

The performance of the TPT sector as of October 2015 was far from satisfactory.The Gross Domestic Product(GDP) of the sector has suffered a contraction, or negative growth of 6.1 percent compared to the same period the previous year.This fi gure represents a worse GDP growth rate than that of manufacturing industry as a whole, which stood at 4.3 percent, or the growth of Indonesia’s total GDP of 4.7 percent.

As to the global economic situation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its forecast for world economic growth to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent in 2016.Likewise with the US, economic growth of only 2.6 percent is expected.This affects the Indonesian TPT sector because Indonesian TPT exports are strongly influenced by global economic conditions, particularly those in the US and Europe which represent the sector’s largest markets.

The share of Indonesian TPT exports to the US and Europe generally stand at 31 percent and 16 percent, respectively.This is far greater than exports to ASEAN and Japan, for example.In 2015, the value of TPT exports was estimated to reach US$12 billion, down from the previous year’s fi gure of $12.68 billion, a contraction of about 5.3 percent year-on-year (yoy).

However, as of October last year, Indonesian TPT exports only amounted to $10.2 billion, about 77 percent of the target.Part of the reason for this is that Indonesian export products have to compete with their competitors’ products, especially garments from Vietnam, in the US and European markets.

In Vietnam, production costs are relatively low as they are not unduly burdened by labor costs, which remain fairly cheap.This contrasts somewhat with Indonesia at this time.In addition to the increased cost of raw materials in Southeast Asia’s largest economy, production costs are also burdened by the ever more expensive cost of labor.Add to this the weakening of the rupiah, and it is understandable that many companies --unable to withstand the pressure--have gone out of business.Increasingly high production costs have led to industries, in particular the textile industry, being forced to lay off their employees.

For example, based on the observations of the API, the textile industry centered on four districts in the regency of Bandung retrenched by 6,000 workers during the period from January to May 2015.Imagine how many tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of workers would lose their jobs if such layoffs were to take place across the island of Java.According to the API, those industries that generally resort to provisional layoffs are downstream by nature.

In addition, the level of competitiveness of Indonesian TPT products continues to decline.According to the central statistics agency (BPS) data, in 2014 alone there was a drop in the level of competitiveness of Indonesian TPT products in the world market of 1.3 percent.Vietnam, by contrast, saw its level of competitiveness increase by 1.8 percent yoy.Indonesia’s competitiveness decline occurred not only in the world market, but also in the US and European markets, which saw falls of 25 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Trade Minister Thomas T.Lembong sees Vietnam as a threat in terms of it being Indonesia’s largest competitor in the textile and footwear sector.This is especially true since Vietnam has joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).Competition with Vietnam, in the minister’s view, is becoming increasingly keen as the Vietnamese have also now completed negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU.This means that Vietnam will have access to the European market, which is larger even than that of the US, consisting as it does of more than 20 countries.Minister Lembong explained that through the TPP, its 12 member states, led by the US, could soon control 40 percent of the world market.Thus, it is no wonder that Indonesia is eager to join the TPP, which it is expected to do within the next two years.

For an alternative perspective, it is instructive to look to the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), which records investment plans, both foreign and domestic, in the textile sector.According to the BKPM, there was a significant increase in investment plans throughout 2015, leading to a positive assessment as to how this might encourage laborintensive investment in 2016.As to the realization of investments across all textile sub-sectors during the first semester of 2015, positive growth was very much in evidence.For example, the textile fiber processing industry posted growth of 213 percent by as much as Rp 2.4 trillion (US$ 176 million) from 82 projects, the textile weaving industry posted growth of 613 percent amounting to Rp 163 billion from 25 projects, the garment industry recorded growth of 16 percent, by as much as Rp 941 billion and the clothing accessories industry recorded growth of 563 percent amounting to Rp 216 billion from 15 projects.

Investment plans, as recorded in the number of principle licenses obtained from the textile sector during 2015, were valued at Rp 13.1 trillion, up 68 percent over the previous year.According to the head of the BKPM, Franky Sibarani, this investment figure in the textile sector included plans for the employment of 101,000 workers.The realization of these investment plans is expected to contribute positively toward the creation of the 2 million jobs targeted by the government in 2016.

Investment data that has been presented by the BKPM indicate that there is still hope for a recovery in the textile industry.However, the industry will recover only if accompanied by effort and support from the government such as national brand development and a logistics base for cotton, which is currently being developed to ensure the availability of the necessary raw materials, continued investment and industrial development will take place as further economic policy packages are rolled out.Moreover, industrial competitiveness as a whole is likely to strengthen, backed by declining gas, electricity and diesel prices.The government is also encouraging the improved performance of this industry, including by stepping up efforts to control imports and securing the domestic market through non-tariff policies.These policies include the compulsory application of Indonesian National Standards (SNI), the use of domestic products in the procurement of goods and services (P3DN), as well as the restructuring of machinery in the textile and footwear industry.

Resource: www.thejakartapost.com

(The writer is an industry analyst at Bank Mandiri.)