Based on analysis of variance decomposition model of modern logistics and macroeconomic relevance

Abstract：Based on the experimental variance decomposition model to explore the correlation of modern logistics and macroeconomic，through data collection， data post-processing （to ensure that no deformation）， the preparatory work before the model construction， to build a complete model of experimental measures， model analysis，to investigate the effect of macroeconomic development of modern logistics， intended for our logistics industry healthy and sustainable development and to provide a reference guide.

Key words：Variance；decompositionmodel；modernlogistics；macroeconomic； Correlation

With the continuous progress of science and technology， the pace of life continues to accelerate. Logistics development in full swing， has penetrated in all aspects of daily life， while an important part of macroeconomic development. Modern Logistics and macroeconomic development inextricably linked， both domestic and foreign scholars on the correlation between the two has been actively explored， and that the economic development of modern logistics is the accelerator， and logistics is one of the national economy an important industry for the development of a new macro-economic growth point. For more accurate explore the correlation between macroeconomic and modern logistics， this article from the perspective of variance decomposition model violate mutual influence relations between the two experimental inquiry， we expect to have some positive effect.

1. Research Background

As Chinese socialist market economy and the rapid rise and development of modern logistics industry gradually rise， and the trend of rapid growth in penetration in people's daily lives， but the current theoretical study of the logistics industry in its infancy， therefore， at the macro social context of sustained economic development， modern logistics and macroeconomic relevance has important practical significance based on the variance decomposition model.

2. Data Collection

Construction variance decomposition model requires a lot of support objective， complete real data， therefore， based on analysis of variance decomposition model of modern logistics and macroeconomic relevance， need to refer to many of the Statistical Yearbook， Statistical Bulletin and other documents， a clear grasp of the \"third industrial added value \"，\" wholesale and retail value-added \"，\" transportation， storage， postal added value \"，\" other tertiary industry \"and other related content， analyzes and summarizes the impact of these data on the modern logistics industry， and Meanwhile， from a macroeconomic perspective， the timely collection of \"gross national income\"， \"industrial output\"， \"gross domestic product\"， the \"first - tertiary industry\"， \"construction industry output，\" \" GDP per capita \"and other macroeconomic indicators of growth data in mastering modern logistics industry-related indicators and macroeconomic data on the basis of the development of data indicators， increase the\" consumer price index \"， and does not distort the data post-processing . The survey this study were derived from statistical yearbooks， Statistical Bulletin and other documents， data is true， complete and objective.

3. Data Post-processing （To ensure That No Deformation）

Survey data collected in this study are the need for post-processing is not deformed， centralized display， without deformation process in the process， may be monetary unit is the statistical unit of the data， and then in chronological order the different years of data Portrait classification， statistics， longitudinal ensure comparability and systematic deformation processing， and ultimately get more accurate data， the variance decomposition model of preparatory work to lay a solid foundation， we have the following specific analysis of variance decomposition model upfront Construction preparation.

4. Preparing For The Build Model

Preparations before that focus Model： econometric analysis， econometric analysis， master variance decomposition model to build the conditions， further demonstrates the importance of building variance hierarchical model， the following specific circumstances of our econometric analysis start on：

（1） Stability analysis of data

According to the relevant requirements of econometric analysis in this study to investigate and collect a lot of data are to maintain long-term stability， and because the variance decomposition model data to build only in a stable state， in order to avoid \"spurious regression\" phenomenon Therefore， in various efforts， the need for data collected stability test， stability test but because the data is more complex， and therefore the stability of our data verification process is not covered. But data stability test results are set forth as follows： In the 0-order differential conditions， gross domestic product， GDP per capita gross national income， industrial output， wholesale and retail value-added of the primary industry output value， the second industry output， transportation and warehousing， and postal added value， construction industry output， other data such as the tertiary industry are stationary probability 1.00， with a strong stability. in addition， the probability of a stable industry gross industrial 0.9997> 0.97， the probability of a stable value of the tertiary industry was 0.9989> 0.97， the probability of stabilizing the tertiary industry was 0.9913> 0.97， are highlights of the data is stable characteristics， the stability of these econometric data， meeting the econometric requirements analysis， can effectively avoid \"spurious regression\" phenomenon， the variance decomposition model to provide data to support the official build.

（2） Causality test various data

According to the relevant requirements of econometric analysis， the need for all of the data for this survey were causality， and causality test object comprising： determining a valid statistical indicators of the existence of factors that gradually the conditions， and then explore the macroeconomic development of modern logistics the impact of which is to explore the correlation between macroeconomic and modern logistics between the two， therefore， causality test， you need to be seen as modern logistics development \"because of\" the macroeconomic development as \"fruit\" ， systematic causality， since causality is more complex， where we examine the process of causation not be addressed only on the relationship between the UK test results were described as follows： 1 in order lag period， a causal relationship under state GNI， GDP per capita GDP， primary industry output value， the output value of the tertiary industry statistics are： 6.31531，7.58562，8.05956，10.9746，9.37074， and in the absence of a causal relationship under the state， the probability of causation corresponding respectively： 0.0176，0.0099，0.008，0.0024 and 0.0048； the second order lag， in the presence of a causal relationship between the state of GNI， GDP per capita， gross domestic product the value of the primary industry output value， the output value of the tertiary industry statistics are： 2.8171，3.79508，3.8313，4.39748，4.06489， In the absence of a causal relationship between the state， the corresponding probability of causation are： 0.0774，0.0353，0.0343，0.0222 and 0.0286； the third-order lag， in the presence of a causal relationship between the state， GNI， per capita domestic production gross， gross domestic product， the output value of the primary industry， tertiary industry output statistics are as follows： under 3.71197，3.09174，3.37702，3.16215，

3.03791， while there is no causal relationship between the state， the probability of causation corresponding respectively as follows： 0.0252，0.046，0.0348，0.0429 and 0.0456. From causality test results can be seen： in the absence of a causal relationship between the state， the probability of causation corresponding <0.05， therefore， there is a significant difference between the various types of data， it is possible to construct the model variance decomposition confirms fight good solid foundation.

（3） Best argument lag

The so-called optimal lag means： the adaptation of the wholesale， retail and other modernlogistics industry development of a model that requires the corresponding quantitativeanalysis， analysis of the results obtained are shown in Table 1.

The results from the optimum lag phase metering can be seen： after 1 Order Data variance decomposition model that best meet the requirements of building， reflects the dynamic relationship between modern logistics and macroeconomic development.

5. Construction Of Variance Decomposition Model

Based on the above analysis， combined with the specific needs of the study， five of the above-mentioned relationship between the specific model building， but because many of these five relationships can be presented models and more complicated， here is no longer introduced one by one， to the wholesale， Case added value correlation between retail and gross national income among explore the impact of macroeconomic development of modern logistics. Here we model the correlation between wholesale and retail value-added and gross national income between the specific analysis， as follows：

With the above measurement results of the analysis， which was presented variance decomposition formula， refer to the specific formula：

See formula pfls represents the wholesale， retail value added； t represents practice sequence flag； Gmzsr represents GNI， see the formula for the variance decomposition model specific analysis， in favor of the above econometric analysis results obtained wholesale， retail and value added GNI was a positive correlation between volatility.

6.Sentiment Analysis Of Variance Decomposition Model Generated – Model

The results from the model above we can clearly know： wholesale and retail value-added impact on China's gross national income was primarily \"V\" shape change， and because the \"V\" shaped trough point is often located in the fourth period running around， and both sides are more evenly （relatively stable）， change width substantially consistent， about 20%， which means that China's wholesale， retail and also increase the value of gross national income is positively correlated， namely： changes in gross national income with the change in the wholesale， retail and increase the value of change， and this change in the early stages of a relatively large proportion， if the change in value of 20%， it will not promote stability decreases， so that changes in the development of mid-term change value close to zero， but will then change accordingly， gradually picked up again and reached a peak near the beginning of the critical point， Overall， our wholesale and retail value-added and gross national income is positively correlated. Based on this analysis the wholesale， retail impact on the added value of primary industry， tertiary industry， presents the same linear relationship between the rise and rise of this change in posture relationship with the extended period of gradually increasing， and in the early stages of development， often share only about 3%， over time， in the development of the first 10 after each cycle， the fluctuation range of variation will rise to about 90%， which clearly demonstrates the wholesale， retail also increased the value of the first contact between the tertiary industry， but also a greater impact on the development of tertiary industry. in addition， the experimental findings， wholesale， retail and also increase the value of the primary industry influence on the development of more and more， Information with respect to other industries， its impact is more limited， but still can not be ignored. Overall， having between wholesale and retail value-added and gross national income， the first and tertiary industries closely linked， there is a certain degree of difference， but similar to its effects， after the first was to reduce the overall upward trend， Less impact on the development of primary industry， therefore， the first industry has huge development space， pending further digging behind the first industrial potential energy. The analysis of modern logistics and macroeconomic relevance for econometric analysis in the form of variance decomposition model based on the collected objective， true and complete data to undertake a comprehensive in-depth analysis， the potential between the master data changes the development of contact， but also through data collection， data post-processing （to ensure that no deformation）， model building preparatory work before， to build a complete model of experimental measures， model analysis， further verification of research results， often depending on the job front after a job to do to prepare to form a perfect and complete research system， in order to protect the overall quality of research.

In addition， based on the strengthening experimental study， by the above analysis shows： the need to strengthen the overall variance decomposition model of management， we can clearly link above to learn： Based on the analysis of variance decomposition model of modern logistics and macroeconomic correlations are a systematic relatively strong， and the attention to detail the data processing， and data analysis， process handling， once any small error occurs， it may lead to collapse of the entire study data link system， leading to inaccurate results throughout the study， it is difficult accurately measure the correlation between macroeconomic and modern logistics， modern logistics and supply chain belonging to the 21st century， with the rapid development and prosperity of socialist market economy， \"horizontal integration\" quality management thoughts emerge and become the mainstream of modern management thinking， but also the breeding ground for a new logistics management - supply chain management. Supply chain management model designed to the greatest extent possible， in the case of small logistics resources to achieve low-cost， high-quality， rapid development of the times of production to meet demand for new products， and to constantly improve the quality of existing products to protect the practical needs of potential customers， enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises， therefore， raise the level of modern logistics， but also directly reflect the macro-economic development and enhancing our capabilities. In general， the purpose is not to strengthen the management of modern logistics development orientation， but the formation of a good development order to avoid a variety of adverse events.

In addition， the variance decomposition model based on the analysis of modern logistics and macroeconomic relevance， need to improve data collection， statistics， analysis and management system， in any state， as far as possible to ensure the stability of data， objectivity， authenticity lower total and integrity analysis is required in the statistical Yearbook， statistical bulletin and other documents and materials for China's modern logistics industry and the actual situation of macro-economic development and building a scientific and reasonable variance decomposition model， hire a professional， high-quality， Construction of highly skilled complex， innovative talents responsible for the model， analytical work， produce the most accurate results oh so precise determination of the correlation between the macroeconomic and modern logistics. The study confirmed a positive correlation between the two macroeconomic modern logistics， therefore， the level of development of modern logistics industry can be viewed as a measure of the level of my aunt important indicator of macroeconomic development.

7. Conclusion

In summary， variance decomposition model based on the analysis of modern logistics and macroeconomic correlations need to go through various efforts can be achieved， this paper analyzes the wholesale， retail and value-added impact of GNI， to reflect the impact of modern logistics macroeconomic， found： macro-economic changes with the changes in modern logistics and change， a positive correlation between the two， and therefore requires a comprehensive enhance the vitality of the development of modern logistics， enhance their level of development and international competitiveness， promote sustainable macroeconomic increase. This paper describes the analysis of the possible presence of certain one-sidedness， needs further study， but can not ignore the value of their research， it is desirable described herein can have some positive effects.