涓流細(xì)雨

“Different priorities naturally led to different paths. With resolution of global models now approaching cloud-resolving, and the "globalization" of the regional NWP model, NWP and climate modeling are now on a collision course from two opposite ends of the spectrum. The urgency of the US "global" NWP catching up with the extremely successful European effort at least partially motivated the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) project at the National Weather Service, with participation from five US modeling centers (phase-1). The NGGPS project highlighted the sharp contrast between various modeling philosophies, inside and outside of scientific context (e.g., via popular blogs). In this presentation, I will discuss the struggles in the design of the numerical modeling framework, for overcoming various "dogmas" and "folklores" that are suppressing innovations in both communities, in an effort to unify both regional and global models, for both weather and climate applications.”

“不同的優(yōu)先戰(zhàn)略自然導(dǎo)致不同的道路。在全球模式的分辨率方面，現(xiàn)在在向云解析、區(qū)域NWP模式的‘全球化’發(fā)展，而NWP和氣候模擬則在譜的兩端相向碰撞。美國的‘全球’NWP要趕上成功的歐洲，最緊要的至少部分是和5家美國模擬中心（第一階段）一道，在國家氣象局推進(jìn)下一代全球預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)（NGGPS）項(xiàng)目。NGGPS項(xiàng)目讓不同的模擬哲學(xué)之間的強(qiáng)烈對(duì)比昭然天下，這種對(duì)比發(fā)生在科學(xué)界內(nèi)部和外部（例如，通過流行的博客）。在這次演講中，我要討論在數(shù)值模式框架的設(shè)計(jì)中，如何與阻礙創(chuàng)新的不同“教條”和“行規(guī)”抗?fàn)庍^程，而這些“教條”和“行規(guī)”的目的，是試圖在天氣和氣候應(yīng)用的區(qū)域和全球模式兩方面實(shí)現(xiàn)統(tǒng)一。”

涓流細(xì)雨

“Different priorities naturally led to different paths. With resolution of global models now approaching cloud-resolving, and the "globalization" of the regional NWP model, NWP and climate modeling are now on a collision course from two opposite ends of the spectrum. The urgency of the US "global" NWP catching up with the extremely successful European effort at least partially motivated the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) project at the National Weather Service, with participation from five US modeling centers (phase-1). The NGGPS project highlighted the sharp contrast between various modeling philosophies, inside and outside of scientific context (e.g., via popular blogs). In this presentation, I will discuss the struggles in the design of the numerical modeling framework, for overcoming various "dogmas" and "folklores" that are suppressing innovations in both communities, in an effort to unify both regional and global models, for both weather and climate applications.”

“不同的優(yōu)先戰(zhàn)略自然導(dǎo)致不同的道路。在全球模式的分辨率方面，現(xiàn)在在向云解析、區(qū)域NWP模式的‘全球化’發(fā)展，而NWP和氣候模擬則在譜的兩端相向碰撞。美國的‘全球’NWP要趕上成功的歐洲，最緊要的至少部分是和5家美國模擬中心（第一階段）一道，在國家氣象局推進(jìn)下一代全球預(yù)報(bào)系統(tǒng)（NGGPS）項(xiàng)目。NGGPS項(xiàng)目讓不同的模擬哲學(xué)之間的強(qiáng)烈對(duì)比昭然天下，這種對(duì)比發(fā)生在科學(xué)界內(nèi)部和外部（例如，通過流行的博客）。在這次演講中，我要討論在數(shù)值模式框架的設(shè)計(jì)中，如何與阻礙創(chuàng)新的不同“教條”和“行規(guī)”抗?fàn)庍^程，而這些“教條”和“行規(guī)”的目的，是試圖在天氣和氣候應(yīng)用的區(qū)域和全球模式兩方面實(shí)現(xiàn)統(tǒng)一。”

——美國氣象局計(jì)劃在4～5年里開發(fā)完成下一代全球模式——NGGPS，而后者的動(dòng)力核心來自5個(gè)模擬中心提供的模式。在第一階段，5種模式對(duì)比后勝出的模式之一是GFDL開發(fā)的FV3模式。該模式的主要研制者h(yuǎn)ian-Jiann Lin博士近日在美國賓州州立大學(xué)的演講中，做了如上闡述，也將數(shù)值預(yù)報(bào)模式研發(fā)界的冰山一角昭示天下。

“The biggest hole in our knowledge of the global water budget is snow，we really have no idea how much is out there.”

“我們對(duì)全球水收支認(rèn)知的最大漏洞就是雪，我們實(shí)際上對(duì)到底有多少雪一無所知。”

——雪觀測是認(rèn)識(shí)世界水資源的關(guān)鍵步驟，但是對(duì)雪的觀測落后于對(duì)冰的觀測，主要原因在于遙感無法實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)跨越所有雪環(huán)境的一致性測量。這種跨越是從山區(qū)到草原再到凍土區(qū)的跨越，遍歷各種景觀，讓獲得全球高分辨率雪信息的努力幾近絕望。計(jì)劃在今年9月份開始，開展數(shù)年的雪試驗(yàn)（SnowEx）項(xiàng)目期望改變這一狀態(tài)。裝置有雷達(dá)、光達(dá)和多譜圖像儀的飛機(jī)（圖）在試驗(yàn)中將飛躍積雪區(qū)，試驗(yàn)的目的是從這些儀器獲取的數(shù)據(jù)中確定研究雪的最佳技術(shù)，用于未來的雪觀測衛(wèi)星中。參與這項(xiàng)NASA主持的試驗(yàn)的來自美國國家雪冰數(shù)據(jù)中心的科學(xué)家Jeffrey Deems從人類知識(shí)欠缺角度，解釋了試驗(yàn)意義所在。

“Access to a combination of satellite and in situ data is essential for the Copernicus services. They cannot develop and produce their products without it. What the EEA and the services are trying to do here is to ensure that the services have access a minima to the data that the Member States have already collected or produced. The data that is already out there.”

“同時(shí)獲取衛(wèi)星和實(shí)地?cái)?shù)據(jù)對(duì)哥白尼項(xiàng)目的服務(wù)至關(guān)重要，沒有這兩種數(shù)據(jù)他們無法開發(fā)和制作出產(chǎn)品。EEA及其服務(wù)要做的底線，就是要確保各成員國已經(jīng)收集或制作的數(shù)據(jù)可以獲取，因?yàn)閿?shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)在那里了?！?/p>

——?dú)W洲哥白尼項(xiàng)目主要通過遙感的方法獲取陸地、海洋環(huán)境、大氣、應(yīng)急管理、安全和氣候變化等六個(gè)領(lǐng)域內(nèi)的信息和數(shù)據(jù)。然而面對(duì)這些領(lǐng)域的服務(wù)，還需要通過傳感器在地表、空中和海洋上實(shí)際獲取的觀測數(shù)據(jù)。為此，歐洲信息署（EEA）和哥白尼項(xiàng)目共同倡議了哥白尼項(xiàng)目中對(duì)實(shí)地觀測資料的收集和提供服務(wù)。負(fù)責(zé)這一任務(wù)的EEA跨領(lǐng)域?qū)嵉財(cái)?shù)據(jù)管理項(xiàng)目負(fù)責(zé)人Henrik Steen Andersen闡述了這一任務(wù)的宗旨。

“Computational sustainability can't be achieved with piecemeal research efforts. It requires truly interdisciplinary teams, where computer scientists work directly with researchers from different sustainability areas.”

“計(jì)算的可持續(xù)性無法在碎片化研究中獲得，它需要真正跨學(xué)科的研究團(tuán)隊(duì)，在其中計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)家直接與不同的可持續(xù)性研究領(lǐng)域?qū)W者合作。”

——2016年世界地球日，美國科學(xué)基金會(huì)（NSF）選擇了“計(jì)算機(jī)在保護(hù)地球中起關(guān)鍵作用”（Computers play a crucial role in preserving the Earth）作為慶祝的主題之一，康奈爾大學(xué)計(jì)算機(jī)科學(xué)家Carla Gomes在接受采訪時(shí)表達(dá)了上述看法。他領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的團(tuán)隊(duì)于2008—2013年在NSF的支持下，開發(fā)出可持續(xù)性的基本計(jì)算工具并獲得了計(jì)算探索獎(jiǎng)。

“Forecast information is often distributed as a twodimensional (2D) product. We present a novel application of the analog ensemble (AnEn) to generate gridded, short-term probabilistic forecasts of 10-m wind speed and 2-m temperature. The AnEn technique has been widely used in both meteorology and renewable energy applications. It is an effective method to generate skillful and reliable probabilistic predictions of meteorological variables, the wind and solar power for short-term forecasts up to 72 hours. It is based on a historical dataset including measurements paired with corresponding deterministic predictions. For each forecast lead time and location, AnEn is created using the measurements corresponding to the past deterministic predictions that are more similar to the current forecast. Until recently the AnEn technique has been used to generate predictions at specific locations, where observations are available. By using an analysis field as the ground-truth AnEn is extended here over a 2D grid, where each grid point is considered as a different location and treated independently. An in-depth analysis of AnEn skill and a comparison between AnEn and ECMWF-EPS forecasts will be presented..”

“預(yù)報(bào)信息經(jīng)常作為二維（2D）產(chǎn)品被發(fā)布。我們最新應(yīng)用類比集合(AnEn)方法制作格點(diǎn)化的10m風(fēng)速和2m溫度短期概率預(yù)報(bào)。AnEn技術(shù)已經(jīng)廣泛應(yīng)用于氣象和可再生能源領(lǐng)域，它是生成氣象變量有技巧和可靠概率預(yù)報(bào)的有效方法，包括風(fēng)和太陽能直到72h的短期預(yù)報(bào)。這種方法基于歷史數(shù)據(jù)庫，包括觀測及對(duì)應(yīng)的確定預(yù)報(bào)。針對(duì)每個(gè)預(yù)報(bào)提前時(shí)間和地點(diǎn)，AnEn利用觀測值和對(duì)應(yīng)的過去中與當(dāng)前最相似的確定預(yù)報(bào)得到。直到最近，AnEn技術(shù)被用于制造有觀測的特殊地點(diǎn)預(yù)報(bào)。通過利用地面真實(shí)分析場，AnEn向2D格點(diǎn)推廣，其中的每個(gè)點(diǎn)都被認(rèn)為是不同地點(diǎn)，從而被獨(dú)立處理。我們對(duì)AnEn技巧進(jìn)行了深度分析，并與CMWF-EPS預(yù)報(bào)進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。”

——近日，NCAR科學(xué)家Stefano Allessandrini博士在ECMWF學(xué)術(shù)講座上介紹了2011年提出的類比集合技術(shù)在2D概率預(yù)報(bào)上的應(yīng)用方法。他報(bào)告的題目是：Gridded Probabilistic Forecasts of Weather Parameters with an Analog Ensemble。

“The launch of Sentinel-1B marks another important milestone as this is the first constellation we have realised for Copernicus. Orbiting 180° apart, the two satellites optimise coverage and data delivery for services that are making a step change in the way our environment is managed.”

“哨兵-1B的發(fā)射標(biāo)志了另一個(gè)重要的里程碑，因?yàn)檫@是哥白尼項(xiàng)目中我們實(shí)現(xiàn)的第一個(gè)星座。兩個(gè)衛(wèi)星的軌道分開180°，優(yōu)化了覆蓋和數(shù)據(jù)傳輸，為改進(jìn)我們的環(huán)境管理邁出了堅(jiān)實(shí)一步。”

——第二顆哨兵-1衛(wèi)星——哨兵-1B于2016年4月25日升空，星上和1A星搭載的同樣的先進(jìn)雷達(dá)探測設(shè)備，可以穿透云和雨層，無論白天還是黑夜，都能獲得地球表面圖像，為歐洲環(huán)境監(jiān)測哥白尼項(xiàng)目取得實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展打下基礎(chǔ)。談到這次發(fā)射，執(zhí)行這次發(fā)射任務(wù)的歐空局局長Jan Woerner如是說。

“[NOAA] to develop aircraft-based hazardous weather observing systems, such as APAR. NOAA shall coordinate these research and development activities with the National Science Foundation”.”

“[NOAA]開發(fā)空基災(zāi)害天氣觀測系統(tǒng)，例如APAR。NOAA應(yīng)該就這些研發(fā)活動(dòng)與國家科學(xué)基金協(xié)調(diào)。”

——2016年4月21日，美國參議院撥款委員會(huì)通過了其2017財(cái)年的撥款法案，在這個(gè)總計(jì)563億美元的法案中，NOAA在2017財(cái)年的預(yù)算為57億美元，較上一財(cái)年NOAA核心業(yè)務(wù)的實(shí)際預(yù)算多出3350萬美元。所謂NOAA的核心業(yè)務(wù)，涵蓋了海洋監(jiān)測、漁業(yè)管理、海岸管理、水產(chǎn)研究和激烈天氣預(yù)報(bào)等領(lǐng)域。法案中提及了一些特別的獲得支持的項(xiàng)目，例如美國天氣研究計(jì)劃中的空基相控雷達(dá)項(xiàng)目（APAR）獲得460萬美元支持。參議院的撥款法案就這項(xiàng)支持，給出了上述解釋。

“The problem now is overwhelming. There is a pressing need to monitor the risks in the long run a nationwide early-warning system is long overdue.”

“現(xiàn)在的問題是壓倒性的。長久地監(jiān)測風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是緊迫的需求，一個(gè)全國早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)遲遲未能實(shí)現(xiàn)?！?/p>

——尼泊爾強(qiáng)烈地震及引發(fā)雪崩和巖石崩落事件一周年之際，與災(zāi)區(qū)重建同時(shí)開展的是科學(xué)家試圖建立預(yù)警系統(tǒng)并為重建安全選址做出努力。尼迫爾減災(zāi)部門泥石流部主任Shanmukesh Amatya做出上述判斷。

“The big takeaway is that the modern rate of sea level rise in the 20th century is faster than anything we’ve seen in the previous two millennia. This isn’t a model. This is data.”

“巨大的收獲是，20世紀(jì)現(xiàn)代海平面上升速率比我們看到的過去2000年來任何時(shí)間都快。這不是模式。這是數(shù)據(jù)。”

——2016年2月，美國科學(xué)院院刊（PNAS）刊載了包括4篇論文討論海平面變化的專欄，這些研究揭示了全球海平面升級(jí)與氣候、極冰和海洋之間的相互作用。參與了其中一項(xiàng)研究的論文作者，羅格斯大學(xué)地質(zhì)學(xué)者Benjamin Horton表達(dá)了這些研究的意義所在。

“The dialogue becomes not‘Is climate change happening?’but ‘Who's responsible for that?’”

“對(duì)話從‘氣候變化在發(fā)生嗎？’變?yōu)椤l對(duì)其負(fù)責(zé)？’”

——美國學(xué)界發(fā)現(xiàn)，研究者更多地將熱浪、寒潮和其他事件歸因于氣候趨勢，而這樣的做法也深入到了社會(huì)各個(gè)角落，保險(xiǎn)專家Lindene Patton的上述說法就是證明。