涓流細雨

涓流細雨

“Information on weather and climate, and its variability and change, is so embedded in our daily life -from daily weather forecasts to seasonal climate predictions - that at times it is easy to forget the amount of observations, research, computing and analysis that lies behind weather and climate information products. Today, the average weather forecast of five days in advance is as skillful as the two-day forecast twenty-five years ago and seasonal climate forecasts have become increasingly skillful. This has been made possible thanks to advances in remote sensing, including satellites, major improvements in science and dramatic increases in computer power. Scientific progress in meteorology and climatology in the last fifty years is indeed one of the most significant one in all scientific disciplines. ”

“有關(guān)天氣和氣候、及其變率和變化的信息，從每日天氣預報到季節(jié)性氣候預測，早已植入我們的日常生活。有時，人們不免忘記了天氣和氣候信息產(chǎn)品背后大量的觀測、研究、計算和分析。今天的五日平均天氣預報終已同二十五年前的兩日預報一樣純熟。季節(jié)性氣候預報已變得日益嫻熟。這要歸功于包括衛(wèi)星在內(nèi)的遙感技術(shù)的發(fā)展、重大科學進步和計算機能力的大幅提升。過去五十年，氣象和氣候科學的進步在所有科學學科中確實可謂首屈一指?！?/p>

——在2015年世界氣象日來臨的時候，WMO主席M. Jarraud在致辭中，用上述文字描述了氣象信息與日常生活、氣象工作和成就。2015年世界氣象日的主題是“氣候知識支持氣候行動”，這樣的主題也讓人聯(lián)想和期待年末世界氣候談判收獲好的結(jié)果。

“the plane would have been moving at close to 100 miles per hour, and that at that speed, when you start sliding, there’s really not much you can do. If there was a crosswind, that would have made the situation worse, because it could have caused the plane to turn like a weather vane into the wind.”

“飛機的速度應該接近每小時100英里，在那樣的速度下滑行，實在沒有什么辦法。如果出現(xiàn)側(cè)風的話會更糟，因為那會導致飛機像風中的風向標一樣轉(zhuǎn)向。”

——2015年3月5日當?shù)貢r間11時，美國達美航空一架客機在紐約拉瓜迪亞機場降落時轉(zhuǎn)向并瞬間沖出13號跑道。飛機降落時當?shù)卦谙麓笱?，飛機機頭沖破護欄，在落入海灣前一刻停住。機上127名乘客和5名機組人員中沒有嚴重受傷者。飛機駕駛員在接受紐約時報采訪談到飛機落地情形時如是說。據(jù)悉7000英尺長的13號跑道是該機場2個跑道之一，部分跑道架設在鋼柱之上延伸到海中，因此結(jié)冰速度極快，加上跑道盡頭周圍就是凍結(jié)的海灣，幾乎容不得降落飛機出現(xiàn)半點差錯。

“Growth in government demand will be stronger than in the commercial world,” said Villain. “Civilian government agencies in established and developing space countries [will] use small satellites for three purposes: operational missions — principally in Earth observation— in-flight technology validation and demonstration, and engineering education.”

“政府需求的增長將比商業(yè)需要還要快，已經(jīng)和正在開發(fā)空間技術(shù)國家的民用政府部門將小衛(wèi)星用于3個目的：以地球觀測為主的業(yè)務項目、航空技術(shù)驗證及演示和工程教育。”

——歐洲咨詢公司（Euroconsult）在其最新發(fā)表的題為“小衛(wèi)星市場展望”的報告中預測，從現(xiàn)在到2019年將有510顆小衛(wèi)星升空，報告編輯者、公司的首席顧問Rachel Villain就未來小衛(wèi)星發(fā)展的驅(qū)動來源做出上述表態(tài)。小衛(wèi)星（small satellite）按照其質(zhì)量范圍（從1kg到500kg）可以分為納米衛(wèi)星（nanosat）、立方衛(wèi)星（cubesat）、微衛(wèi)星（microsat）和小型衛(wèi)星（minisat）4種。

“The big data revolution could lead to currently unimagined uses for the data we receive from satellites. Entrepreneurs could come up with new applications and ideas for mashing up data. But the data itself should, I believe, be regarded as a public good. How to guarantee this, in a world where public budgets are squeezed and space exploration is becoming increasingly affordable for private players, is a question that deserves serious thought and active engagement.”

“大數(shù)據(jù)革命能夠讓我們當前的衛(wèi)星數(shù)據(jù)得到意想不到的應用。企業(yè)家能夠提出新應用和不斷深加工數(shù)據(jù)的思想。但是，我認為數(shù)據(jù)本身屬于公共財產(chǎn)。在目前公共預算到處緊縮，而私人可承擔的空間探索不斷增加的形勢下，如何保證這一屬性，是一個需要嚴肅思考和積極取得共識的問題?！?/p>

——達沃斯論壇（世界經(jīng)濟論壇）是具有全球影響的輿論前沿，2015年1月24日，美國NOAA局長沙利文在于1月21日同期開始的第45屆達沃斯論壇的論壇博客上發(fā)表題為“天基大數(shù)據(jù)如何幫助地球上的生命”的博文，強調(diào)了天基氣象資料對全球福祉的不可替代性，同時敏銳指出在私企深度參與背景下，如何保持天基數(shù)據(jù)的公共屬性這一嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)。

“The successful completion of the CDR for this scientifically advanced instrument allows the program to move into the manufacturing, assembly, integration and testing phase with instrument completion expected in early 2017”

“針對這一科學上先進設備CDR的成功完成，使得我們進入到制造、組裝、集成和試驗階段，預計在2017年初將全面完成儀器的制作”

——由貝爾航空公司（Ball Aerospace）和韓國航空研究所（KARI）共同開發(fā)研制的地球靜止環(huán)境監(jiān)測分光儀（Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer，GEMS）近日完成了關(guān)鍵性設計審查（Critical Design Review，CDR），貝爾公司副總裁Cary Ludtke發(fā)表了上述看法。據(jù)悉，GEMS在紫外和可見光波段監(jiān)測穿越邊界層的污染事件，計劃隨韓國GEO Kompsat 2B衛(wèi)星升空，將成為世界上首顆位于地球靜止軌道上的空氣質(zhì)量監(jiān)測衛(wèi)星。該衛(wèi)星將提供朝鮮半島以及亞太更廣泛地球每小時的臭氧、臭氧前體物和氣溶膠的觀測，有助于改進污染事件的早期預警和認識長期氣候變化。

“Instead of continuing down the path of large government-owned satellites that are prone to cost overruns and delays, we must look outside the box for new methods of providing essential weather data. For example, there are private companies such as PlanetIQ, Spire, GeoOptics, Tempus Global Data and HySpecIQ that have plans to launch constellations of GPS Radio Occultation and Hyperspectral Sounding satellites, two sources of data that can greatly enhance our forecasting ability. Considering options that reduce the burden on massive government satellite systems will allow us to more accurately predict the weather.”

“與其繼續(xù)走大型的政府擁有衛(wèi)星卻容易超出預算和延誤的路子，我們必須轉(zhuǎn)變思路，尋求提供關(guān)鍵天氣數(shù)據(jù)的新方法。例如，PlanetIQ，Spire, GeoOptics, Tempus Global Data和HySpecIQ這樣的私企已經(jīng)計劃發(fā)射GPS掩星族群和超譜探測衛(wèi)星，兩個數(shù)據(jù)源能夠極大強化我們的預報能力。考慮各種選擇和減少政府衛(wèi)星系統(tǒng)巨大負擔將帶來更加準確的天氣預報。”

——2015年2月12日，美國國會環(huán)境分委員會針對未來NOAA衛(wèi)星資料覆蓋的空白召開了“縮小差距：美國天氣衛(wèi)星和天氣預報（Bridging the Gap: America’s Weather Satellites and Weather Forecasting）”聽證會，環(huán)境分委員會主席Jim Bridenstine就彌補NOAA和NASA衛(wèi)星發(fā)射檔期存在的空白期，在聽證發(fā)言中發(fā)表了上述支持私企介入的看法。據(jù)悉，2016財年NOAA衛(wèi)星預算超過20億美元，占NOAA總預算的大約40%，而在2008年這一比例僅為25%左右，不到10億美元。

“KIAPS (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) has been developing a new global NWP model(KIM, KIAPS Integrated Model) as well as an advanced data assimilation system since 2010. Science 2013, we have implemented and investigated Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) data assimilation system to a cubed sphere model of NCEP CAM-SE, while developing KIM. It would be very easy to replace the model by KIM when released because the grid structure between CAM-SE and KIM is same.”

“自2010年以來，KIAPS（韓國大氣預報系統(tǒng)所）一直開發(fā)新的全球NWP模式（KIM，KIAPS 綜合模式）。2013年以來，我們在開發(fā)KIM的同時，還在探討局地集合轉(zhuǎn)化卡爾曼濾波（LETKF）數(shù)據(jù)同化系統(tǒng)應用于具有立方球格點的NCEP CAM-SE模式。因為CAM-SE和KIM的格點結(jié)構(gòu)相同，一旦（LETKF）開發(fā)完成，再用KIM替代很容易。”

——2015年初美國氣象學會年會上，來自KIAPS的專家用上述話語介紹了可能是支撐韓國下一代天氣預報模式框架的開發(fā)情況。雖然KIAPS開發(fā)產(chǎn)品與氣象業(yè)務部門應用還有距離，但其高度計劃性的時間進程，技術(shù)上本土開發(fā)為主、模式和同化系統(tǒng)并行、同時借助NCEP模式等外力的戰(zhàn)略和做法已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。

"COSMIC-2 is Worth the Fight. COSMIC is the thirdmost-important data that goes into [the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts] forecasts. It’s interesting that it’s No. 3 even though its cost is a lot less than some of the other things. The more opportunities for the community to secure critical data, the better our options. If there was not $100 million from Taiwan on the table to make this a very cost-effective investment for the U.S. taxpayer, then I think we would not be pushing COSMIC-2. That’s really the game changer in this budgetary environment. "

“COSMIC-2值得一搏。COSMIC是歐洲中期天氣預報中心預報產(chǎn)品的第三重要數(shù)據(jù)來源。這一點很有意思，盡管位于第三，但其費用要比其他一些來源要少很多。科學共同體獲得關(guān)鍵數(shù)據(jù)的機會越多，我們就會有更好的選擇。如果沒有來自臺方1億美元的公開投入使得該項目成為美國納稅人劃算的投入，我想我們也不會去推進COSMIC-2，在目前預算環(huán)境下，這一點改變了博弈取向。”

——UCAR主席Thomas Bogdan于2015年2月2日在走訪《空間新聞》編輯部時發(fā)表上述評論。2012年擔任UCAR主席之前的6年，Bogdan一直是NOAA空間天氣預報中心的主任。他目前是UCAR主持的美國和中國臺灣聯(lián)合COSMIC（Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate，氣象、電離層和氣候衛(wèi)星探測系統(tǒng)）項目的首席顧問。COSMIC項目是NCAR繼HAO（High Altitude Observatory）之后目前主要的天基項目。面對美國會議員登針對COSMIC-2項目“有更好、但非關(guān)鍵”的質(zhì)疑，Bogdan先生從技術(shù)和效益兩個角度，捍衛(wèi)項目的繼續(xù)。據(jù)悉，COSMIC-2項目總經(jīng)費預算在2億美元左右，目前已經(jīng)列入NOAA官方項目，并獲得2014—2015兩個財年經(jīng)費支持，美國氣象界對2016財年項目繼續(xù)獲得經(jīng)費支持也持樂觀態(tài)度。