一場輸不起的博弈

Early 2002， in the Madrid International Plan of Action on Aging， UN called on people to change the attitude towards elderly. Old people should not be seen as the burden of society， but active participants of social progress. Their rights should be respected， and the population aging should be transformed from the pressure for the social economy to a sustainable motive. However， people now are confronted with the problems that the pension system and withdrawing situation cannot meet the demands of population aging， and the source of pension is unstable and insufficient. With the backdrop of population aging， the question that is rising retirement age the wishful thinking of decision-makers or an irresistible trend is closely related to every employer’s benefit and social development.

早于2002年，聯(lián)合國在其通過的《馬德里老齡問題國際行動計劃》中呼吁稱，人們要改變對老年人的態(tài)度，老年人不應(yīng)被看作是社會的負擔(dān)，而是社會發(fā)展過程中積極的參與者，他們的權(quán)利必須要得到尊重，應(yīng)把老齡化從社會經(jīng)濟的壓力轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榭沙掷m(xù)發(fā)展的動力……然而，目前人們卻面臨著退休金收入及領(lǐng)取狀況不適應(yīng)老齡化的需要，養(yǎng)老金收入來源的制度保障不足等問題。在當前人口老齡化背景下，延遲退休究竟是決策者的一廂情愿，還是大勢所趨，已然成為關(guān)乎每位勞動者切身利益乃至社會發(fā)展之大事。

Supporters

支持派

In 2010， China put into a trial use of “flexible delay the withdrawing of pension” policy in Shanghai. However， since the trail use starts， only several thousands of people volunteered to participate. Compared to millions of retired people in Shanghai， this number shows that most of people are not interested in the new policy. “Rising retirement age is of vital importance to release the impact of population aging and reduce the economic burden of young laborers.” Zhao Yaohui said on the 37th seasonal meeting of “CMRC China Economic Review” held on April 26， 2014. In his opinion， if the elderly is defined as people over 60 years’ old and young labor is defined as people from 20 to 59 years’ old， the percentage of the provided elderly in China will reduce from 4.9% in 2010 to 1.4% in 2050. It means， in 2010， an old people was provided by 5 young people， but in 2050， an old people will have to be provided by 1.5 young people， which is a burden the young people cannot bear. If we view this problem from the perspective of taxation， the “tax rate” of young people will increase from 16.8% in 2010 to 40.9% in 2050， which means young people have to contribute near 41% of their income to provide for old people. Once the retirement age rises， the burden of young people will become less. If we assume the retirement age will reach 65 in 2030 and 70 in 2050， the percentage of the provided elderly in China will remain the same level with 2010， which will control efficiently the increase in the tax young people have to pay.

Speaking of retirement age， the 48-year-old Australian Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey said since the life expectancy of modern people has been prolonged， they should work for longer time to save the pension rather than eating the country out of money， but the pensioner now will not be influenced. He called on Australia to abandon the old theory and think about the country’s future more rationally. They can follow the example of UK where the retirement age of people under 30 now will be raised to 70. In this way， Australian people will allow their country to provide sufficient pension for the aging population.

2010年，中國上海試行了“柔性延遲領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金”政策。然而，自試行以來，僅有數(shù)千人自愿參與。與上?，F(xiàn)有的數(shù)百萬退休職工相比，這一數(shù)字表明大部分在職員工對延遲退休“新政”并不感冒?！把舆t退休對緩解老齡化的沖擊、減輕年輕勞動者的經(jīng)濟負擔(dān)非常關(guān)鍵?！壁w耀輝在2014年4月26日舉行的“CMRC中國經(jīng)濟觀察”第37次季度報告會上如是表示。在他看來，如果將老年人定義為60歲及以上，將年輕勞動力定義為20歲至59歲，那么中國老年人撫養(yǎng)比將從2010年的4.9下降到2050年的1.4。這意味著2010年是五個年輕人養(yǎng)一個老年人，到了2050年，則變成一個半年輕人就要養(yǎng)一個老人，這將是年輕人難以承受的負擔(dān)。若從稅負率的角度來衡量，年輕勞動力的“稅率”將從2010年的16.8%增加到2050年的40.9%。即純粹為了支付老年人的花銷，年輕勞動力將要拿出全部收入的近41%。如果延遲退休，年輕勞動者的負擔(dān)會因此大大降低。若在2030年將65歲作為退休年齡和在2050年將70歲作為退休年齡，中國老年撫養(yǎng)比在未來40年將基本維持在2010年的水平，從而使得年輕勞動力的“稅負”增加十分有限。

在談到退休年齡時，現(xiàn)年48歲的澳大利亞聯(lián)邦國庫部長霍基表示，由于現(xiàn)代人的預(yù)期壽命已延長，所以他們也將工作更長的時間來儲蓄養(yǎng)老金，而不是大家一起吃窮國家，但現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)享受養(yǎng)老金待遇的老年人都不會受到任何影響。他呼吁稱，澳洲應(yīng)該放下舊觀念，理性地考慮國家未來，效仿英國政府將該國當前30歲以下人口在未來領(lǐng)取養(yǎng)老金的年齡提高至70歲的做法，這樣澳大利亞人才能讓國家有足夠的資金來養(yǎng)活不斷老齡化的人口。

In Germany， the supporters consider it as a “historical” reform and breakthrough. The main basis is the changing structure of population， namely the decreased born rate and less young people； the improved sanitary conditions and the prolonged life expectancy made the elderly increase continuously. If they don’t conduct the reform， the current pension system cannot carry on. At present， the reigning CDU and experts believe rising retirement age is the only correct choice and there are no substitute plans or solutions. If they don’t rise the retirement age， the only option is to reduce pension or increasing premium drastically to keep balance between income and expenditure. Pensioners won’t agree to reduce the pension， and the workers in active service will be against the increase of premium. Therefore， the only feasible measure is to carry out this policy thoroughly.

在德國，贊成者將其視為“歷史性”的改革和突破。主要依據(jù)是人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化，即出生率下降，年輕人愈來愈少；衛(wèi)生條件改善，人均壽命延長，老年人口日漸增多。如不進行改革，養(yǎng)老保險制度難以為繼。目前，執(zhí)政的基民盟和專家學(xué)者認為延長退休年齡是唯一正確的選擇，沒有任何其他可行的替代方案或辦法。如果不延長退休年齡，那就只能降低退休金或大幅度增加保費，才能保持收支的平衡。降低退休金，退休者不同意。大幅度增加保費，在崗的職工反對。因此唯一的辦法只能是將這一法律貫徹到底。

Opponents

反對派

To those who oppose this policy， delayed retirement will certainly affect the rate of youth employment. Zong Qinghou， Deputy to the NPC， said， “It’s already hard enough for the annual over-seven-million graduates to find jobs， and any delay in retirement age will exacerbate this problem. Time is still not ripe to delay retirement. Our priority should be solving the structural conflicts in employment and improving the income of employees.” According to the statistics from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of the PRC， among the newly added about 10 million jobs， one third comes from the vacancies given by the retirees. Deng Dasong， Director at the Center for Social Security Studies of Wuhan University， said， due to its insufficient supply of jobs， China does not have the conditions to delay retirement. “With its current labor force reaching over 7 00 million， China does not fall short of labor force at all comparing the absolute labor force and the possible economic condition， and this situation will not be changed radically until 2020. Considering the annual job demand for the college graduates is already about 8 million， plus the demand of peasant workers and other social group who also crave employment， the gap between the supply and demand in job market is huge. Delayed retirement will downsize the amount of jobs， stand in the way of huge number of youth into the job market， causing poisonous effect. Delayed retirement will not only hamper the youth， but also bring huge burdens to the Ministry of Human Resource and Social Security which takes charge of national employment.”

在反對者看來，延遲退休將影響青年就業(yè)形勢?！懊磕?00多萬大學(xué)畢業(yè)生就業(yè)困難，如果再延長退休年限，年輕人就業(yè)就更困難了。目前還不是延遲退休的時機，首要的是解決就業(yè)的結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾，提高就業(yè)人員的收入問題?！敝袊舜蟠碜趹c后如是說。中國人社部的研究數(shù)據(jù)表明，中國每年新增的1000萬左右就業(yè)崗位中，三分之一來自退休人員的更替。武漢大學(xué)社會保障研究中心主任鄧大松稱，以中國目前就業(yè)崗位的供給狀況來看，尚不具備延遲退休條件?！爸袊壳坝?億多勞動力，勞動力絕對數(shù)和可能的經(jīng)濟狀況相比，勞動力數(shù)量不缺，這一狀況在2020年以前不會發(fā)生根本改變。每年大學(xué)畢業(yè)生就業(yè)需求約800萬個，加上農(nóng)民工、社會其他就業(yè)人群，就業(yè)崗位供給的缺口大。如果延遲退休年齡，帶來就業(yè)崗位減少，將使大量青年不能進入勞動力市場，帶來負面影響。延遲退休年齡，不僅是年輕人不愿接受的，主管全國就業(yè)工作的人社部也將承擔(dān)巨大的壓力?！?/p>

According to a survey on the retirement acceptance among Australians by the Australia Statistics Bureau， the government-supported plan of postponing retirement age to 67 may possibly be opposed by the public. Among the 2.3 million people surveyed， 17% hope that they could retire after 70， 49% hopes that they can retire between 65-69， and 25% hopes they could retire between 60 to 64.

The move to delay retirement also spurs a controversy and a debate in German society and politics. The opponents said， it’s not that seniors over 60 don’t want to work， but that the labor market does not have the environment or the conditions. Forceful advancement and implementation of this reform and law will only reduce the expenditures of pensions and push those people to the verge of hopelessness and poverty. According to the statistics of German Labor Department， in 2009， only 23.4% of the seniors between 60 to 64 can continue to work at the job that they pay legal social security fees. In other words， the danger for those seniors over 60 to lose their jobs is huge. According to the German Labor Department in October， 2007， only 35，500 seniors between 60 to 64 registered unemployment. Till October， 2010， the unemployment population of this cohort already reached 145，500， the danger of unemployment increased over fourfold. According to the Labor Association of Germany， senior between 60 to 64 are hard to join the labor market and delayed retirement is “unaccountable”. Expert estimates that， at least 1.2 million to 3 million jobs should be added to meet this demand if postponing the retirement age by 2 years.

澳大利亞聯(lián)邦統(tǒng)計局最近一次關(guān)于澳洲人退休意向的調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，政府希望延長退休年齡至67歲的計劃很可能將面臨人們的反對。在接受統(tǒng)計的230萬人中，有17%的人表示他們想在他們70歲以后退休；大約49%打算在65到69歲時退休，還有25%的人想要在60到64歲時退休。

延遲退休改革在德國社會和政壇也掀起了一場風(fēng)波和辯論，反對者的觀點是，不是60歲以上的老年人不愿意繼續(xù)工作，是勞動市場不具備這一環(huán)境和條件。強行推進這一改革并落實這一法律，無非是減少養(yǎng)老保險的支出，并將這部分人推向無助和貧困的邊緣。根據(jù)德國聯(lián)邦勞動部的統(tǒng)計，2009年，60至64歲的老年人仍在能夠交納法定社會保險費用的崗位上工作的，只有23.4%。換言之，60歲以后失業(yè)的風(fēng)險很大。據(jù)德國聯(lián)邦勞動局統(tǒng)計，2007年10月，60至64歲的老年人登記失業(yè)的只有35500人。到了2010年10月，這一年齡段的失業(yè)人口已經(jīng)達到145500人，失業(yè)風(fēng)險增加了4倍以上。在德國工會看來，在60至64歲的老年人很難融入勞動市場的情況下，延長退休年齡是“不負責(zé)任的”。如果退休年齡再提高2歲，專家測算必須增加120萬至300萬的崗位，才能滿足這一需求。