On the Poverty in the Rocky Desertification Areas of Southwest China Based on AHP：A Case Study of Liupanshui City in Guizhou Province

Haibin ZHU，Xiaodong REN

1.Institute of South China Karst，Guizhou Normal University，Guiyang550001，China；2.The State Key Laboratory Incubation Base for Karst Mountain Ecology Environment of Guizhou Province，Guiyang 550001，China

Southwest karst areas are the most concentrated contiguous areas featuring karst landform in China.Due to fragile ecological environment，it was identified as one of the eight ecologically fragile areas－the southwest ecologically fragile karst area with rocky desertification，in the National Program for Ecologically Fragile Area Protection introduced by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2008［1］.In the ecologically fragile environment coupled with traffic inconvenience，lack of information，backward agricultural production technologies and other social factors，the severe problems exist here，such as low level of per capita income，wide area of poverty，a large population in poverty，high incidence of poverty and high rate of falling back to poverty［2－4］.All these can trigger a vicious cycle＂population increase-excessive reclamation vegetation destruction-economic backwardness-living in poverty low education levels－population increase＂［5］.

Southwest rocky desertification contiguous area with special difficulties is one of the fourteen contiguous destitute areas，which is designated by the State Council.Extending across Yunnan，Guizhou and Guangxi，the region covers an area of228000 square meters，and becomes the major battlefield for a new round of poverty alleviation in China，with a total of91 poverty-stricken counties（cities，regions）included in the planning list.

This article selects Liupanshui most widely distributed with rocky desertification as the research sample.Through the study of the sample city，we aim at finding out the bottleneck in its development and putting forward recommendations for poverty reduction so as to provide a theoretical basis for the development of Liupanshui City.Meanwhile，other southwest rocky desertification areas can draw lessons from it for further development.

1 Overview of the study area

Liupanshui is a city in western Guizhou province，People's Republic of China.The name Liupanshui combines the first character from the names of each of the city's three constituent counties：Liuzhi，Pan，Shuicheng.As a prefecture-level city with an area of 9965 square kilometers，Liupanshui has a total population of 3100000，making it the second largest in the province.The city is known locally as＂The Cool City＂or＂Cool Capital＂due to its low average summer temperature.

It is an important node in the combined area of four provinces（Yunnan，Sichuan，Guizhou and Guangxi），and also an important part of＂Panxi-liupanshui Resource Comprehensive Development Zone＂.Liupanshui City is rich in mineral resources，and it is an important resource reserve and supply base in Southwest China.

Liupanshui City has superior geographical advantages and rich natural resources，but due to the karst mountains and high degree of rocky desertification，the poverty problem is outstanding.There are50 key development-oriented poverty alleviation counties in Guizhou Province at the new stage，3 of which in the4 administrative districts（Liuzhi Special District，Shuicheng County and Pan County）under the jurisdiction of Liupanshui City are listed as key development-oriented poverty alleviation counties.

According to the latest statistics of Liupanshui Municipal Bureau of Poverty Alleviation and Development，there are a total of 975200 rural poor people in Liupanshui City，and the rural poverty rate is 38.3%，accounting for 8.49%of rural poor people and 114.67%of the rural poverty rate in Guizhou Province，respectively.According to the national classification standard of poverty，the number of three types of poor townships in Liupanshui City is shown in Fig.1.

Fig.1 The number of three types of poor areas in Liupanshui City

In Zhongshan District，the poor townships account for 55.56%of the total townships in the district.There are a total of 30 poor villages in the district，accounting for 56.61%of the total administrative villages.In 2011，the region's rural per capita net income was5789 yuan，only equivalent to82.97%of the national average（6977 yuan）.According to the new national poverty standard，there are 47605 farmers with the per capita net income of below 2300 yuan and the poverty incidence is 29.1%.

In Liuzhi Special District，the poor townships account for 68%of the total townships in the district.There are a total of229 poor villages in the district，accounting for 58%of the total administrative villages.In 2011，the region's rural per capita net income was4026 yuan，only equivalent to 57.70%of the national average.According to the new national poverty standard，there are 190900 farmers with the per capita net income of below 2300 yuan and the poverty incidence is 33.8%.

In Shuicheng County，the poor townships account for 72.73%of the total townships in the district.There are a total of 220 poor villages in the district，accounting for72.85%of the total administrative villages.In 2011，the region's rural per capita net income was 4010 yuan，only equivalent to 57.47%of the national average.According to the new national poverty standard，there are 347000 farmers with the per capita net income of below 2300 yuan and the poverty incidence is 45.4%.

In Pan County，the poor townships account for 43.24%of the total townships in the district.There are a total of308 poor villages in the district，accounting for68.4%of the total administrative villages.In 2011，the region's rural per capita net income was 4305 yuan，only equivalent to 61.70%of the national average.According to the new national poverty standard，there are 389700 farmers with the per capita net income of below 2300 yuan and the poverty incidence is 37%.

2 Building the evaluation model for development oriented poverty alleviation using AHP

Liupanshui City is rich in mineral resources，but there is the phenomenon of＂robust finance but poor people＂in such region［6］.In order to systematically and hierarchically analyze the causes of this phenomenon［7］， this paper uses AHP （Analytic Hierarchy Process）to build the development-oriented poverty alleviation evaluation indicator system，to analyze the current situation of poverty in the regions under the jurisdiction of Liupanshui City.It is conducive to the comprehensive consideration of the relationship between various systems so that the development-oriented poverty alleviation more targeted.

2.1 Building the evaluation indicator system for development-oriented poverty alleviationThe sluggish economic development and poor people's living standards in the rocky desertification areas are the result of many factors.Economy，society and ecology are the three core indicators which reflect the sustainable development in an area.

This paper divides the evaluation indicator system for regional development-oriented poverty alleviation into the following three layers：

（i）The first layer is the goal layer where there is one indicator，namely the evaluation indicator system for regional development-oriented poverty alleviation.

（ii）The second layer is the criteria layer where there are three indicators，including three subsystems（economy，society and ecology）.

（iii）The third layer is the indicator layer where there are 18 specific indicators highly correlated with poverty levels，affiliated with the three sub-categories of the criteria layer according to the category.

2.2 Building the comparison matrix and calculating the weight of various layers of indicatorsIn this paper，this paper uses the Delphi method to build comparison matrix.

In the first place，there is a need to carry out the pairwise comparison of various layers of indicators，and determine the weight of the indicator relative to the indicators in the upper layer based on its importance.In order to carry out the quantitative description of the importance of various indicators in the matrix，there is a need to introduce the matrix judgment scale（1－9 scale method）［8］，and assign the value based on the importance（importance degree gradually increased from＂1＂to＂9＂）［9］.

In the second place，it is necessary to ensure that the matrix is the positive reciprocal matrix with diagonal product of 1.The calculated weight of criteria layer and indicator layer is shown in Table 1.

2.3 Consistency test of comparison matrixThe comparison matrix built using AHP is usually inconsistent，but in order to use the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue as the weight vector of the factors to be compared，so there is a need to carry out consistency test of comparison matrix［10］.

The method for consistency test of comparison matrix is as follows：Letλmaxbe the maximum eigenvalue of the comparison matrix，and n be the sum of diagonal elements of comparison matrix.The consistency indicator CI＝（λmax－n）／（n－1），the value of average random consistency indicator RI can be derived from the table，and the consistency ratio CR＝CI／RI.When CR＜0.1，it shows that the comparison matrix passes the consistency test.

In the first layer（AB），the weight of economic system，so-cial system and ecosystem relative to the goal layer is 0.633 7，0.191 9 and 0.174 4，respectively，and the consistency test result is as follows：

CI＝0.008 8，RI＝0.580 0，CR＝0.015 2＜0.1，λmax＝3.009 2.

It indicates that the comparison matrix satisfies consistency.

In the second layer（B1－C），the weight of 8 indicators is 0.271 4，0.071 9，0.042 1，0.145 9，0.078 4，0.078 4，0.122 7 and 0.189 2，respectively.The consistency test result is as follows：

CI＝0.013 2，RI＝1.410 0，CR＝0.009 4＜0.1，λmax＝8.130 2.

It indicates that the comparison matrix satisfies consistency.

Similarly，the consistency test result in the second layer（B2－C）is also obtained as follows：

CI＝0.006 6，RI＝1.240 0，CR＝0.005 3＜0.1，λmax＝6.0415.

It indicates that the comparison matrix satisfies consistency.

The consistency test result in the second layer（B3－C）is as follows：

CI＝0.003 9，RI＝0.900 0，CR＝0.004 3＜0.1，λmax＝4.010 4.

It indicates that the comparison matrix also satisfies consistency.

Table 1 The evaluation indicator system for the regional development-oriented poverty alleviation

2.4 Normalization of the indicator layer dataIn the evaluation indicator system，the original dimensions of the selected indicators are inconsistent，and the indicators can not be directly calculated，so it is necessary to normalize the indicators.In this paper，we use the extreme value method to conduct the dimensionless processing of the original indicators［11］.The direct indicator is as follows：

where Zijis the normalized value of sample；Xijis the original value of indicator；is the maximum value of sample；is the minimum value of sample.

The values before and after normalization are shown in Table 2.

Table 2 The values before and after normalization of original data

（Table 2）

2.5 Calculation of the total score of sample After the dimensionless processing of the original data，we can use the weighted summation formula to calculate the total score of each subsystem in accordance with the indicator system from bottom to top：

where Cjis the weight coefficient of the following layer indicator relative to the previous layer indicator.

By the weighted summation，we can derive the subsystem scores and overall strength scores of the comparison samples，and the comparison results are shown in Table 3.

Table 3 Comparison of the comprehensive regional development indicators in Liupanshui City

3 Evaluation of the study results

3.1 Analysis of economic systemIn terms of economic development，the economy of Pan County is the strongest，followed by Zhongshan District，and the economy of Shuicheng County and Liuzhi Special District is weaker.From the specific indicators，Pan County has the highest GDP，followed by Zhongshan District，Shuicheng County and Liuzhi Special District，and the GDPof the four regions accounts for 40.72%，35.56%，14.51%and 11.06%of the total GDP of Liupanshui City.From the per capita GDP and farmers' per capita net income，the two indicators in Zhongshan District and Pan County are higher than in Liuzhi Special District and Shuicheng County.

In terms of the fixed assets investment，the total investment in Pan County and Zhongshan District is high，while the total investment in Shuicheng County and Liuzhi Special District is low，only equivalent to57.87%and 30.37%of total investment in Pan County，respectively，indicating that the growth momentum of reproduction of fixed assets is weak in Liupanshui City.

In terms of the industrial structure，the GDP of the three industries in Liupanshui City accounts for 5.2%，62.7%and 32.1%of total GDP，and the proportion of primary industry and tertiary industry significantly lagsbehind secondary industry，indicating that the industrial structure is not sound in Liupanshui City，and it needs further adjustment.

3.2 Analysis of social systemIn terms of the social system，Pan County and Zhongshan District rank in the forefront，Shuicheng County ranks third，and Liuzhi Special District ranks last.From the total retail sales of consumer goods，Zhongshan District and Pan County are the highest，while Liuzhi Special District and Shuicheng County are weak.

However，there are large differences between them，and especially the total retail sales of consumer goods in Shuicheng County are only equivalent to 5.85%of the city level，indicating that the purchasing power of goods is weak in Shuicheng County，and the material and cultural living standards of residents need to be improved.

In terms of the above-scale industrial added value，it grows rapidly in Pan County，while Liuzhi Special District lags behind，equivalent to only 11.87%of that of Pan County，indicating that the scale of investment in Liuzhi Special District still needs to be expanded，and there is an urgent need to introduce new strategic industries to support the development of the region.

From the food production and per capita share of grain，the overall output value and owning amountare low，and especially for Zhongshan District，the per capita share of grain is the lowest，equivalent to only 28.07%of the national average（424 kg）.

3.3 Analysis of ecosystemIn the ecosystem criteria layer，Pan County ranks first，followed by Shuicheng County，Liuzhi Special District and finally Zhongshan District.In terms of the energy consumption per unit of GDP，the totalenergy consumption is the highest in Zhongshan District，and 4.87 tons of standard coal will be consumed per10000 yuan of GDP，equivalent to171.89%of the city's energy consumption（2.8332 tons）；the total energy consumption is the lowest in Pan County，equivalent to only 14.89%of that of Zhongshan District，indicating that Zhongshan District is facing severe ecological problems，and low levels of energy efficiency.

In terms of woodland area and forest coverage，Pan County is the highest，while Zhongshan District is the lowest，but the overall level of the city is low，which also explains the reason for the prominent rocky desertification in the region.

3.4 Analysis of comprehensive strengthThrough the analysis of three systems in the criteria layer，it is found that the regional development is good in Pan County，followed by Zhongshan District，and finally Shuicheng County and Liuzhi Special District.As the strong economic counties in Guizhou Province，Pan County and Zhongshan District should give full play to the role of regional economic growth pole in driving the economic development of the surrounding areas；Shuicheng County and Liuzhi Special District should speed up industrial restructuring based on their own advantages to achieve rapid economic development.

4 Recommendations

4.1 Crystallizing the regional positioning and creating economic grow th poleIn Regional Development and Poverty Alleviation Plan for the Rocky Desertification Areas of Yunnan，Guizhou and Guangxi（2011－2020）promulgated by the State Council，Liupanshui City is regarded as the main battlefield for poverty alleviation，and in the spatial structure of＂Eight Centers，Six Corridors＂，it is not only one of the＂Eight Centers＂，but also an important node city in the＂Six Corridors＂.

Based on their own geographical advantages，Liupanshui City should rely on Guiyang－Kunming Railway，Neijiang－Kunming Railway，and other major arterial trunks as well as GZ65 National Highway and other highways to speed up the development of central cities and the clustering of industries along the line；enhance the leading role of＂Panxi-liupanshui Development Zone＂，actively promote the interaction between this region and other regions（such as Central Yunnan Economic Zone；Chengdu－Chongqing Economic Zone；Central Guizhou Economic Zone；Beibu Gulf E-conomic Zone），and highlight the＂economic engine＂role of Liupanshui City in Southwest China.

4.2 Ad justing the industrial structure to achieve comprehensive upgradingThe optimization of the industrial structure is the core of structural change in the social productive forces，and as a resource converter［13］，it drives the transfer of labor，labor materials and other economic resources between the three industries，to make the industrial structure become more rational.In the current industrial structure of Liupanshui City，the secondary industry occupies the largest proportion，and the primary and tertiary industries lag behind.

In the future，it is necessary to rely on the strength of secondary industry，to form the advantage complementation between industries and achieve the coordinated development of three industries；fully tap the economic growth point of the tertiary industry based on the market，according to market demand.

Meanwhile，relying on abundant coal resources，it is necessary to focus on the development of energy，equipment manufacturing，coal chemical industry，trade logistics and other pillar industries，and establish an industry system platform based on ecological agriculture with mineral economy as the center.

4.3 Seizing the policy opportunities to enhance the coordinated developmentIn order to promote balanced regional development and strengthen the development-oriented poverty alleviation，the State Council issued some important documents such as China Rural Poverty Alleviation and Development Program（2011－2020），and Several Opinions on Further Promoting Sound and Rapid Economic Development in Guizhou Province［14］.

Liupanshui City should fully tap the favorable policies based on resource carrying capacity，environmental carrying capacity and population carrying capacity，to promote the development of recycling economy，and build Liupanshui City into a demonstration area of circular economy in South west China.At the same time，it is necessary to increase efforts to support poor towns，rely on the government to implement the preferential agricultural policies for the purpose of sound and rapid economic development in Liupanshui City.

4.4 Seeking both temporary and permanent solutions to break the vicious cycle of poverty［15］Regional poverty not only relies on the external aid but also relies on internal development.Poverty is a trap of vicious cycle of ecological environment［16］.The poverty results in the population explosion in the karst areas，while population explosion，in turn，leads to the rocky desertification in the karst areas.

In order to break the vicious cycle of poverty，on the one hand，it is necessary to strengthen the sustainable development education for farmers and the environmental monitoring of rocky desertification communities［17］，enhance forest conservation，and change farmers' lifestyles and energy use structure in the rocky desertification areas；on the other hand，it is necessary to increase rocky desertification control，protect the areas where rocky desertification has not yetoccurred，and comprehensively control the areas where rocky desertification has already occurred.

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