Biden Pivots East

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden has been scheduled to visit China in early December， followed by a trip to Japan and South Korea—both of which are U.S. allies in East Asia.

This will be Biden’s second visit to China as vice president. In his previous carefully planned visit in August 2011， he and then Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping， who has been Chinese president since March， spoke for over 10 hours on various topics including strategy， the economy， military， arts and culture， and sensitive international issues. The talks established good personal relations. Xi carried out a successful U.S. visit six months later， bringing U.S.-China ties to a new high.

Biden’s scheduled visit will no longer require initial introductions with China’s new leaders， allowing the two sides to skip the routine ceremonial gestures and formulaic speeches， and directly conduct thorough discussions on major substantive issues. Frankness and deep communication will be the key methods that the two major powers should take and display to the world.

Biden’s mission

Biden’s visit will very likely be the last high-level exchange between Beijing and Washington in 2013. Beijing is expected to reaffirm President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama’s strategic common understanding they reached in their meeting in California in June—sustaining and implementing the trend of building a new pattern of relations between the two powers.

The new Chinese Government pays more attention to active planning and management of diplomacy， stressing top-line design and bottom-line thinking. China hopes to avoid the“historic destiny” of confrontation between an existing superpower and an emerging power， and more importantly， to fix bilateral relations on the healthy track of stable development and constructive cooperation.

China considers Biden as the one with whom it can reliably make contact， as he represents the “rational ones” in Washington. Biden first landed in China in 1979 as a member of a U.S. Congress delegation， during which he met former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping， who was regarded as the chief architect of reform and opening up since the late 1970s. Biden has highly praised China’s reform and opening up. In his China visit in 2011， he declared in a speech in Sichuan Province， Deng’s hometown， that he has insisted since 30 years ago that China’s rise not only is significant to the Chinese people， but also meets with the interests of the United States and even the whole world.

Sharing responsibilities with Obama， Biden’s role as vice president has most closely involved the China-U.S. relationship. He participated in and delivered speeches on behalf of Obama at the opening ceremonies of the China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue held in Washington， D.C. on three consecutive occasions. He expressed that President Obama and he were both highly aware that China-U.S. relations will be a key point， and that bilateral cooperation would decide to a large extent how the world copes with challenges in the 21st century. Coordination among the White House， U.S. Department of State and the military is clearly improved in Obama’s second term. Furthermore， it is believed that Biden is likely to represent the Democratic Party in the next presidential election， if Hillary Clinton chooses not to run in 2016.

Compared with his first China visit as vice president， Biden’s second one will occur under new circumstances. The two governments have jointly confirmed the direction to stably develop China-U.S. relations and build the new pattern of relationship between great powers. But this task comes with more complicated challenges for both sides.

As his visit comes shortly after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China （CPC） Central Committee， Biden will conduct an exploring voyage of China’s new round of reform. The economy undoubtedly will be an important topic. Face-to-face communication between the two sides will help Washington correctly understand Beijing’s development direction of reform. China hopes that the two sides can make joint efforts， seize opportunity from the new reform and the United States’structural adjustment， improve coordination of macro-economic policies， plot out a roadmap of reciprocal cooperation in the new era， and work to solve problems that have long been troubling bilateral trade and economic relations.

The global macro-economic situation has eased up recently， with developed countries like the United States beginning an economic recovery. But risks still exist. China doesn’t worry much about the United States’ default risk as it has passed through its fiscal budget and debt crises. But it still has deep concerns about the timing of U.S. quitting the quantitative easing policy， as well as the barriers that Chinese enterprises and investors might meet with in the United States.

To China， economic reform measures confirmed in the just-concluded plenary sessions bring big pressure of enlarging openingup. China is accelerating to push forward new international trade framework agreement to protect its foreign trade as well as introducing external competition， so as to boost its domestic economic structure adjustment and systematic reform. And bilateral investment agreement negotiation with the United States will play a big role in China’s roadmap. China agreed to restart the negotiation based on postestablishment national treatment and negative list during the fifth round of China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue in early July. However， it will take bilateral efforts and high-level determination before making practical progress.

Asia-Pacific points

Another inevitable task for Biden is how to communicate with the Chinese side on Washington’s Asia-Pacific strategic adjustment.

The United States is reacting to the changing Asia-Pacific situation with a complicated approach. It intends to prevent its strategic and security interests in the region from being excluded by implementing policies like “pivot to Asia” and “strategic rebalance.” Distracted by messy domestic political and economic conflicts， however， the Obama administration has paid less attention to the “rebalance” in the president’s second term. Observers said one of the major targets of Biden’s Asian visit is to reiterate Washington’s strategic adjustment of “rebalance，” so as to make up the regretful cancellation of Obama’s planned visit to Asia in October due to the government shutdown triggered by domestic budget and debt crisis.

Although Washington repeatedly declared its promises such as welcoming China’s rise， no intention to deter China， among others， its strategic adjustment in the Asia-Pacific region brings significant suspicion and dissatisfaction in China. Many Chinese officials and people believe that the United States is building a military presence targeted at China by allying with Japan， the Philippines， Australia， Viet Nam and India， while military competition between the two sides in the West Pacific has never stopped.

Biden’s scheduled visit is expected to ease tension between the two sides. China and the United States have repeatedly confirmed that confrontation and conflict in the Asia-Pacific region are destructive to both sides’ interests. The two countries will make positive signals to the world if they can reach cons96sNvAB9C0y3XZJ09P43ZnrUnXEqHisjGmIby1Xlpt4=ensus on strengthening cooperation in the region.

In addition， Japan poses another obstacle to mutual trust between China and the United States. Tension between China and Japan due to territorial and historical issues is in danger of escalation due to Japan’s continuous provocation， which poses a great challenge to regional security. Washington does not want to be directly involved in a dispute between China and Japan， or to be forced to make a choice because of a possible conflict between them.

To China， despite Washington’s insistence that does not hold a stance on the Diaoyu Islands issue， it actually takes a biased stance on the Japanese side. The United States admits Japan’s administrative jurisdiction on the islands， and indulges Japan to push forward a constitution amendment targeting at challenging the success of World War II， so as to encourage Japan to strengthen coordinative ability to U.S. military implementation in the region， and to contain China’s growing influence in the region.

Washington’s attitudes to China and Japan thus become China’s substantial scale of measuring the real intention of its Asia-Pacific strategy. It is impossible to bypass Tokyo to coordinate Beijing and Washington’s interests in the region. China should seize the opportunity of Biden’s scheduled visit to conduct a frank communication on the Japan issue.

Bilateral communication and interaction has reached a zenith of bilateral relations since Obama’s presidency. Good personal relations between high-ranking Chinese and U.S. leaders have become a highlight， playing an important role on promoting bilateral cooperation and relaxing disputes between them. However， the two sides still need to perseveringly conduct dialogue and cooperation at different levels， and work to solve structural problems that hinder the two sides from building a new pattern of relations between great powers. Both Beijing and Washington are aware of this. And they will illustrate their respective ideas and approaches during Biden’s scheduled visit.