數(shù)學(xué)家聯(lián)盟

Kevin Pelton

Every year when we arrive at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference①， reporters immediately open up the list of attendees and begin counting NBA teams. Using both hands and both feet wasnt sufficient to count all the way to this years total -- 29 of the 30 teams had at least one representative in attendance. The only exception？ The Los Angeles Lakers.

每年當(dāng)我們來到麻省理工斯隆體育分析大會(huì)時(shí)，記者們都會(huì)關(guān)注參會(huì)者名單，然后數(shù)數(shù)參加大會(huì)的NBA球隊(duì)數(shù)量。今年，用上你的雙手雙腳都數(shù)不過來了，因?yàn)?0支球隊(duì)里有29支都至少派了一個(gè)代表參加大會(huì)。唯一的那個(gè)例外？是洛杉磯湖人。

That figure has skyrocketed from 12 teams just four years ago， which shows the growth in both the Sloan conference （which had an attendance of nearly 3，000） and how NBA teams value statistical analysis.

這個(gè)數(shù)字與四年前的12支球隊(duì)相比已經(jīng)有了飛躍性的提高，這也顯示了斯隆大會(huì)的成長（大約有3000名參會(huì)者），以及NBA球隊(duì)對數(shù)據(jù)分析的重視。

Certainly， those involved have taken notice of the change. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban， who took part in the "Revenge of the Nerds" panel that kicked off the two-day conference， recalled that when he was helping pioneer the field in the early 2000s， "You couldnt have a conversation with anyone." Then it was because few others understood the language Cuban was speaking. Now those conversations are limited primarily because teams are so secretive about what theyre doing， hoping to maintain their competitive advantage.

當(dāng)然，那些參與其中的人也感受到了變化。小牛老板馬克·庫班，他才參加了為期2天的大會(huì)揭幕討論“書呆子逆襲”，回憶起自己在21世紀(jì)最初幾年幫助開拓這片領(lǐng)域時(shí)的情況時(shí)說，“你跟誰都說不上話?！币?yàn)樵谀菚r(shí)，沒人能聽懂他說的是什么。而現(xiàn)在，這些交流都是受限的，因?yàn)榍蜿?duì)都會(huì)注重保護(hù)自己的隱私，希望能保持自己的競爭優(yōu)勢。

That leaves observers to read into what executives like Cuban， Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey （co-chair of the conference）， Indiana Pacers general manager Kevin Pritchard and San Antonio Spurs president R.C. Buford （who were part of the marquee Basketball Analytics panel） had to say all weekend.

那么諸如庫班、火箭總經(jīng)理達(dá)瑞爾·莫雷（大會(huì)聯(lián)合主席）、步行者總經(jīng)理凱文·普理查德和馬刺總裁R.C.布福德（他是高級籃球分析小組的成員）這樣的管理層人員在整個(gè)周末都說了些什么，解讀這些的任務(wù)就得留給觀察家們了。

Increasingly， however， we can see the influence of analytics in the game on the floor. Conference attendees each received a copy of ESPN The Magazines Analytics Issue， highlighted by a feature on how firstyear Portland Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts is using statistical analysis to inform his game plans. The Rockets shot selection -- rated the most efficient in the league by Hoopdata.coms expected effective field goal percentage --shows the front office putting its philosophy into play.

可以說，我們越來越多地在球場上看到了數(shù)據(jù)分析帶來的影響。大會(huì)的每個(gè)參與者都得到了一份ESPN雜志的數(shù)據(jù)特刊，其中的亮點(diǎn)正是波特蘭開拓者菜鳥主教練特里·斯托茨如何使用數(shù)據(jù)分析來制定他比賽計(jì)劃的?；鸺某鍪诌x擇則顯示了球隊(duì)管理層如何把自己的想法貫徹到比賽中，在Hoodata.com的預(yù)期有效命中率上，他們的排名在聯(lián)盟最前列。

Even the leagues best team， San Antonio， has incorporated lessons provided by advanced statistics. Buford said reigning NBA Coach of the Year Gregg Popovich reconsidered the Spurs defensive philosophy because the team that led the NBA in defensive rating six times between 1999 and 2006 slipped to 11th each of the past two seasons. So far this season， San Antonio is back up to third in the league.

即便是聯(lián)盟最好的球隊(duì)，馬刺也參與了由先進(jìn)數(shù)據(jù)提供的課程中。布福德表示，NBA本年度的最佳教練格雷格·波波維奇重新考慮了馬刺的防守計(jì)劃，就是因?yàn)榍蜿?duì)從防守?cái)?shù)據(jù)領(lǐng)先者（1999年到2006年），跌落到過去兩個(gè)賽季的聯(lián)盟第11位。本賽季到目前為止，馬刺在防守?cái)?shù)據(jù)上已經(jīng)回到了聯(lián)盟第三。

Besides Cubans Mavericks， most of the NBAs other early adopters of statistics used them primarily to inform their decisions on player personnel. Now many teams are going beyond the information on tendencies that has long been part of scouting reports. Asked to predict the future of analytics， Morey answered that the game will be played differently after using a relatively similar set of strategies for decades. That kind of radical change would depend on the willingness of coaches to consider analysis that challenges the norm.

除了庫班的小牛，早期接受數(shù)據(jù)分析的NBA球隊(duì)主要把這用在了對球隊(duì)陣容的決策方面。而現(xiàn)在，很多球隊(duì)已經(jīng)超越了把數(shù)據(jù)作為球探報(bào)告一部分的觀念。當(dāng)被問到對數(shù)據(jù)分析未來的預(yù)測時(shí)，莫雷表示，與過去幾十年幾乎一成不變的方法相比，現(xiàn)在球隊(duì)的打法會(huì)不一樣，本質(zhì)上的改變則要看球隊(duì)的教練們是否愿意使用數(shù)據(jù)分析。

When Basketball Analytics moderator Pablo Torre asked Buford and Pritchard whether theyd hire a coach opposed to analytics， they both emphasized openness to new ideas over the ability to spout off statistics. That certainly seems to describe former Orlando Magic coach Stan Van Gundy， who represented the coaching perspective on the panel. As Van Gundy protested that hes really not a stats guy， he described a philosophy that matches up well with what statistical analysts have learned in the past decade. In part because of his personnel in Orlando， Van Gundy placed a premium on the 3-pointer and shots around the rim， the most efficient options available.

當(dāng)籃球分析部主席帕布羅·托里詢問布福德和普理查德，他們是否愿意聘請一個(gè)反對數(shù)據(jù)分析的教練時(shí)，兩人均強(qiáng)調(diào)，對新理念持開放態(tài)度比實(shí)際有分析能力更重要?？雌饋磉@非常適合描述前魔術(shù)主教練斯坦·范甘迪，他代表了小組討論中教練一方的觀點(diǎn)。范甘迪聲稱自己并不是真的執(zhí)迷于數(shù)據(jù)，但他所描述的一種理念卻很符合過去十年數(shù)據(jù)分析得出的結(jié)論。而一部分的原因在于他在魔術(shù)時(shí)球隊(duì)的陣容，范甘迪把重點(diǎn)放在了三分和籃下得分，這都是最有效的得分區(qū)域。

Even when Van Gundy goes against the numbers -- as is the case with his rejection of the value of ensuring the 2-for-1 （two possessions to the opponents one） at the end of quarters -- hes considered the issue and weighed his options. （Van Gundy， like his brother， fears that giving players more latitude to take what would normally be bad shots creates problems with shot selection.）

即便當(dāng)范甘迪站在數(shù)據(jù)的對立面時(shí)——比方說他不認(rèn)同每節(jié)最后的2對1計(jì)劃（己方兩次進(jìn)攻，對方一次）的價(jià)值——他也是在考慮這個(gè)問題，衡量自己的選擇。（和他兄弟一樣，范甘迪害怕給球員更多的自由，因?yàn)檫@可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致投籃選擇的問題出現(xiàn)。）

It helps that， unlike in baseball， much of the early research in basketball tended to confirm conventional wisdom. Buford explained that Popovich got on board when he saw that the numbers backed up some of his philosophies. The next wave of statistical advancement may do the same. For the third consecutive year， the weekends star was the optical-tracking data collected by Stats LLC② for SportVU. Three of the four research papers that focused on the NBA used SportVUs numbers to address a variety of different questions about the game.

和棒球不同，籃球方面早期的研究傾向于證實(shí)那些傳統(tǒng)的觀點(diǎn)。布福德說，當(dāng)波波維奇發(fā)現(xiàn)數(shù)據(jù)能支持他的一些理論時(shí)，他也開始接受數(shù)據(jù)分析。下一輪數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)的進(jìn)步浪潮也許還會(huì)有同樣的效果。連續(xù)三年，大會(huì)的明星都是提供了光學(xué)跟蹤數(shù)據(jù)的Stats LLC體育機(jī)構(gòu)，四份研究報(bào)告中的三份把焦點(diǎn)集中在了使用SportVU數(shù)據(jù)的NBA球隊(duì)，以此強(qiáng)調(diào)比賽問題的多樣性。

SportVU， now in its third year in NBA arenas， is building a more robust data set all the time. Fully half of the leagues 30 teams have subscribed to SportVU and installed tracking cameras in their arenas， meaning every other game is captured with information on where players and the ball are on the court at all times.

SportVU落戶NBA已經(jīng)三年，他們在聯(lián)盟打下了良好的根基。聯(lián)盟30支球隊(duì)有一半都訂購的SportVU系統(tǒng)，在球館內(nèi)安裝了跟蹤攝像機(jī)，這意味著，每場比賽，球隊(duì)的跑位和球的運(yùn)動(dòng)都會(huì)隨時(shí)被記錄。

While a presentation from Grantlands Kirk Goldsberry and Eric Weiss on the "Dwight Effect" and interior defense was primarily focused on evaluating players， a team of students from MIT and their professor took on a strategic question for coaches -- whether or not their players should crash the glass or get back on defense. Increasingly， NBA teams are retreating to prevent fast-break baskets， one reason the percentage of rebounds grabbed by the offense leaguewide has declined since the late 1980s.

當(dāng)來自Grantland的柯克·戈茲貝里和埃里克·維斯進(jìn)行“德懷特效應(yīng)”的演講，講述內(nèi)線防守的重點(diǎn)在于計(jì)算球員的價(jià)值時(shí)，來自麻省理工的一群學(xué)生和他們的教授則提出了一個(gè)戰(zhàn)略層面的話題——球員到底該沖擊籃板，還是直接退回去防守。NBA球隊(duì)如今開始越來越多地退回防守，以防對方快攻得分，一個(gè)原因就是，從上世紀(jì)80年代末開始，聯(lián)盟范圍內(nèi)的前場籃板率都在下滑。

When TrueHoop took up this issue during training camp， I used team performance to show that teams that increased their offensive rebounding relative to their defensive rebounding tended to get better on offense and worse on defense （and vice versa）， suggesting a trade-off. But that was a crude method that could not get at the role of coaching in the same way as the MIT study， which looked at how many players crashed or got back on any given missed shot.

當(dāng)TrueHoop在訓(xùn)練營期間提出這個(gè)問題時(shí)，我利用球隊(duì)的表現(xiàn)證明，相比后場籃板，當(dāng)球隊(duì)在前場籃板增加時(shí)，他們的進(jìn)攻會(huì)變得更好，防守則變得更差（反之亦然），這顯示這是一個(gè)相互抵消的作用。不過這只是很粗糙的統(tǒng)計(jì)，不可能像麻省理工的研究那樣影響到執(zhí)教，他們的研究會(huì)關(guān)注在一次投籃不中后有多少球員沖擊前場籃板，或者有多少球員退回防守。

Also intriguing： The Rockets crashed the glass the most of any with a high number of plays in the SportVU database. That could be a coincidence， or it might be a sign Houston has drawn a similar conclusion from the data.

同樣有意思的是：在SportVU的數(shù)據(jù)庫中，火箭不僅回合數(shù)最多，沖擊前場籃板的次數(shù)也是。這是巧合，但也許就是火箭得出了與數(shù)據(jù)相似的結(jié)論。

Of course， those insights wont reach all 30 teams at equal rates. The members of the Basketball Analytics panel were skeptical that there will ever be true analytical parity in the league， even if the NBA ultimately puts SportVU in eNBA arena. While teams might have access to the same data， they will do very different things with it.

當(dāng)然，這些觀點(diǎn)對于30支球隊(duì)的影響并不相同?；@球分析小組的成員們懷疑，即便NBA最終把SportVU放進(jìn)了電子賽場，聯(lián)盟未來是否真的會(huì)那么重視分析也是未知。即便球隊(duì)都能接觸到同樣的數(shù)據(jù)，但如何使用也是非常不同的。

That brings us back to the Lakers. Theyve used former head coach Rudy Tomjanovichs son， Trey， as a statistical consultant， so theyre not completely sitting out the revolution. The count of 29 other teams is a little misleading because at least one other team sent only business staffers. Still， rivals around the league arent necessarily missing the Lakers at Sloan.

這就把我們引向了湖人隊(duì)。他們聘請前主教練魯?shù)稀焚Z諾維奇的兒子特雷作為球隊(duì)的數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)顧問，所以他們也不是完全置身于變革之外。而關(guān)于這29支球隊(duì)的統(tǒng)計(jì)也有些許誤導(dǎo)，因?yàn)橹辽儆幸恢蜿?duì)派出的僅僅是負(fù)責(zé)球隊(duì)商業(yè)運(yùn)營的工作人員。不過，對手們不會(huì)在斯隆大會(huì)上忘記湖人。

"From the Celtics perspective， its not a bad thing the Lakers arent here，" said Boston assistant GM Mike Zarren.

“從凱爾特人的角度，湖人不在這里并不是壞事。”凱爾特人助理總經(jīng)理邁克·扎倫表示。

"If we can keep the Lakers out， thats fine with us，" added Buford.

“如果我們能一直把湖人排除在外，我們也沒問題。”布福德補(bǔ)充道。

Too late. Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak told ESPNLA.com on Sunday that the team will send a representative to Boston next year， meaning by next year attendance could be mandatory throughout the NBA.

太晚了。湖人總經(jīng)理米奇·庫普切克周日向ESPNLA.com表示，球隊(duì)明年會(huì)派出一名代表參加大會(huì)。這意味著，明年NBA參加這次大會(huì)也許就是強(qiáng)制性的了。

①麻省理工斯隆體育分析大會(huì)的目的，就是為體育產(chǎn)業(yè)提供一個(gè)指引，以討論在整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)中越來越重要的數(shù)據(jù)分析。這個(gè)會(huì)議始于2006年，由火箭隊(duì)總經(jīng)理莫雷和克拉夫特體育集團(tuán)副總裁杰西卡·吉爾曼共同擔(dān)任主席。參會(huì)的不僅有北美各大職業(yè)體育球隊(duì)的管理層，也吸引了英超球隊(duì)。除了球隊(duì)外，各大商學(xué)院的學(xué)生也是大會(huì)最重要的參與者。斯隆體育分析大會(huì)每年2月或3月在波士頓地區(qū)進(jìn)行。

②專門跟蹤記錄球場上球員和比賽進(jìn)程的攝像數(shù)據(jù)系統(tǒng)，最初起源于以色列的軍事光學(xué)跟蹤系統(tǒng)。