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Kirk Goldsberry

ITS TIME TO PROPERLY MEASURE THE VALUE OF NBA COACHES.

是時(shí)候合理評(píng)估NBA教練的價(jià)值了。

NBA teams are increasingly addicted to 3-point shooting. Thats been common knowledge for a while. The feeding of this addiction has changed the way entire offenses are run. Out with the ball-stoppers， in with the ball-movers.

NBA球隊(duì)越來(lái)越沉迷于三分，這成為普遍認(rèn)識(shí)已經(jīng)有一段時(shí)間了。對(duì)于這種嗜好的滿足，導(dǎo)致整個(gè)進(jìn)攻發(fā)生了改變。防守者越來(lái)越少，轉(zhuǎn)移球的人越來(lái)越多。

The sneaky thing about NBA 3s is that they demand cooperation. While only 52 percent of the leagues 2-point field goals involve an assist， 84 percent of 3s involve an assist. As the league increases its appetite for long-range shooting， it must also ramp up its passing. Moving the ball has never been more important， and systems that keep the ball in motion effectively have never been more successful.

NBA的三分有一個(gè)麻煩，就是需要合作。盡管聯(lián)盟里只有52%的兩分球涉及到了助攻，但是涉及到助攻的三分球卻有84%。隨著聯(lián)盟越來(lái)越喜歡遠(yuǎn)距離投籃，傳球也相應(yīng)變得越來(lái)越多。轉(zhuǎn)移球從來(lái)沒(méi)有如此重要過(guò)，而能讓球處于有效移動(dòng)中的體系也從來(lái)沒(méi)像今天這樣如此成功。

The Denver Nuggets fired Brian Shaw. There is no shortage of indicators that point to Denvers failures； the Nuggets rank 24th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency — however， given the trends highlighted above， that they also rank last in 3-point efficiency seems particularly salient.

丹佛掘金炒掉布萊恩·肖，丹佛走向失敗的跡象并不少見：進(jìn)攻效率排第24，防守效率第25。不過(guò)，鑒于上面提到的趨勢(shì)，他們?cè)谌中手信琶箶?shù)第一顯得尤其扎眼。

Overall， the Nuggets convert a measly 31.3 percent of their 3s. How bad is that？ Well， out of 103 qualifying players in ESPNs 3-point efficiency standings， only five players shoot below that mark. So， thats pretty bad.

從總體上看，掘金的三分命中率只有31.3%。這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)有多差？在ESPN符合三分效率榜標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的103名球員中，只有5名球員低于這一數(shù)據(jù)。所以，這真的很糟。

Nobody knows more about coaching trends than Warren LeGarie， an agent who represents seven NBA head coaches and many more potential coaches. I asked LeGarie this week about the interactions between the obvious stylistic evolution of NBA offense and the less obvious shifts in the coaching market.

沒(méi)有人比沃倫·拉加利更了解執(zhí)教趨勢(shì)，他是七名NBA主教練的經(jīng)紀(jì)人，他的客戶中還有更多可能會(huì)在未來(lái)當(dāng)教練的人。本周，我就NBA進(jìn)攻風(fēng)格的明顯轉(zhuǎn)變與教練市場(chǎng)的不明顯轉(zhuǎn)變之間的互動(dòng)詢問(wèn)了拉加利。

“These last couple of seasons， the game and style of play has really changed for the better， exemplified by the Spurs domination of Miami in last years NBA Finals； the winners have been the fans and the coaches who play that way，” LeGarie says. “The star-ball era， which has dominated the game and major portions of the salary cap for much of the last 10 years， finally seems to be going by way of the dinosaur.”

“過(guò)去幾個(gè)賽季里，比賽和戰(zhàn)術(shù)風(fēng)格真的在朝更好的方向發(fā)展，典型就是馬刺去年總決賽對(duì)熱火的統(tǒng)治級(jí)表現(xiàn)；贏家是球迷和選擇這種打法的教練?！崩永f(shuō)，“明星球的時(shí)代，在過(guò)去10年大多數(shù)時(shí)候統(tǒng)治比賽、占據(jù)薪金空間大頭的球風(fēng)，似乎終于像恐龍一樣消失了。”

Mike Budenholzer and Shaw landed first-time coaching gigs in the summer of 2013. Before landing in Atlanta， Budenholzer wrote a dissertation on hardwood egalitarianism at Popovich University； before his time in Denver，Shaw diligently studied Zen and the Art of Superstar Maintenance at Triangle Tech.

邁克·布登霍澤和肖在2013年夏天都獲得了第一份教練工作。加入老鷹前，布登霍澤專門研究過(guò)波波維奇平等主義籃球；成為掘金主教練前，肖勤奮地學(xué)習(xí)過(guò)禪道，以及三角進(jìn)攻包容超級(jí)巨星的藝術(shù)。

While both apprenticed under legendary masters， their paths have been extremely divergent since taking their helms： Shaw is out of a job， while Budenholzers Hawks own the NBAs best record. Maybe its unfair to look for symbolism here， but in the pace-and-space era， coaches are more important than ever.

盡管兩人都是大師的弟子，但成為主教練后，兩人走的路卻大相徑庭：肖丟了工作，而布登霍澤的老鷹擁有聯(lián)盟最佳戰(zhàn)績(jī)。也許在這里尋找代表點(diǎn)并不公平，但在節(jié)奏和空間的時(shí)代，教練的作用變得更為重要。

Pop quiz， hotshot①： Whos the best shooter in the NBA？

各位高手，腦筋急轉(zhuǎn)彎：誰(shuí)是NBA最好的投手？

A： The open shooter.

答案：有空位的投手。

Perimeter success in todays NBA is as much a reflection of shot quality as it is shooter quality. Just ask Danny Green， whose career has gone from the waiver wire to spot-up legend largely by switching systems. But， if we believe in this “Danny Green effect，” we must also allow for an opposite phenomenon， where players seemingly devolve after changing systems. Shaws tenure provides us with a few examples.

如今NBA在外線的成功，既是投籃質(zhì)量的反映，也是投手質(zhì)量的反映。問(wèn)問(wèn)丹尼·格林就知道了，僅僅因?yàn)楦鼡Q了體系，他就從隊(duì)見隊(duì)裁的廢柴變成了定點(diǎn)投籃傳奇。可如果我們相信“丹尼·格林效應(yīng)”，我們就必須允許相對(duì)現(xiàn)象的存在，也就是球員在更換體系后出現(xiàn)退化。我們可以從肖的掘金時(shí)期找出一些例子

Consider the plight of Wilson Chandler， who has played in Denver for years. In George Karls last year in Denver （2012-13）， he shot 41 percent from beyond the arc. This year， that figure is way down to 33 percent. Maybe Chandler simply got worse at shooting — or maybe his looks got worse under Shaw.

想一想威爾森·錢德勒的困境，他在掘金已經(jīng)打了很多年。喬治·卡爾在丹佛的最后一年（2012-13），錢德勒的三分命中率是41%。今年，這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)掉到了33%。

When looking at teams 3-point efficiencies， youll notice that Budenholzers Hawks are near the top of the list， trailing only the Splash Brothers under Steve Kerr. Does this mean Atlanta has the best shooters in the league？ Well， having Kyle Korver certainly doesnt hurt， but he typically doesnt create his own shots. They also feature players like DeMarre Carroll， who shot just 29 percent on 3-pointers two years ago — hes up to 40 percent this year， essentially exhibiting the inverse effect as Chandler.

要是看球隊(duì)的三分效率，你會(huì)注意到布登霍澤的老鷹幾乎接近榜首，僅次于斯蒂夫·科爾手下的水花兄弟。但這是否等于老鷹擁有聯(lián)盟最好的射手？好吧，擁有凱爾·科沃爾當(dāng)然不會(huì)有害，但科沃爾基本上不會(huì)自己創(chuàng)造投籃機(jī)會(huì)。老鷹隊(duì)里還有德瑪爾·卡羅爾，兩年前他的三分命中率還只有29%——今年這個(gè)數(shù)字是40%，正好是錢德勒效應(yīng)的對(duì)立面。

And while spot-up threats like Korver have experienced heightened value， what about the coaches who are able to architect a system that allows these guys to flourish？ After all， 95 percent of Korvers 3s this year involve an assist， and though were good at teasing out how many of those assists belong to Jeff Teague， were less inclined to investigate how many of them belong to Budenholzer. Perhaps just as baseball accounts for “park effects②，” basketball should account for “coach effects.”

像科沃爾一樣的定點(diǎn)投籃專家的價(jià)值受到人們關(guān)注時(shí)，那些構(gòu)建了這些體系、讓球員得以閃光的教練呢？總之，科沃爾今年95%的三分都來(lái)自助攻，盡管我們?cè)敢庋芯烤烤褂卸嗌僦?lái)自杰夫·蒂格，我們卻很少去研究到底有多少助攻來(lái)自布登霍澤。也許就像棒球?qū)⑵浞Q為“球場(chǎng)效應(yīng)”一樣，籃球應(yīng)該將其歸為“教練效應(yīng)”。

In 2015， the NBAs best coaches might be the most undervalued human resources in the league. Should Jeremy Lin or Eric Gordon really earn more money than Gregg Popovich？ Should Kerr， Budenholzer， and Dave Joerger combine to earn less than Omer Asik？ Maybe weve traditionally overvalued the impact of players relative to coaches， or maybe the way the game is played now has just heightened the import of tacticians. Either way， the current valuations seem out of whack.

2015年，NBA的最佳教練們可能是聯(lián)盟最被忽視的資源。林書豪或埃里克·戈登真的應(yīng)該比格雷格·波波維奇掙的還多？科爾、布登霍澤和戴夫·喬格爾的工資加起來(lái)應(yīng)該比歐米爾·阿西克低？也許從傳統(tǒng)上，我們過(guò)高的估計(jì)了球員相對(duì)于教練的價(jià)值，也許現(xiàn)在的比賽風(fēng)格更強(qiáng)調(diào)戰(zhàn)術(shù)家的重要性。無(wú)論怎么樣，現(xiàn)在的評(píng)價(jià)體系不對(duì)。

As Kerr and Budenholzer have most recently demonstrated， sometimes changing the coach can be as effective， or more so， as adding a superstar player or two. But coaching prospects come with tremendous amounts of uncertainty. Shaw was one of the most talked-about candidates in the league for years， while many questioned Kerrs lack of coaching experience. Kerr has obviously proved the doubters wrong， and the Shaw hype looks unwarranted.

就像科爾和布登霍澤最近證明的那樣，有時(shí)候更換教練等于甚至大于增加一個(gè)或者兩個(gè)超級(jí)明星。不過(guò)執(zhí)教潛力卻有著極大的不確定性。肖在很多年里都是聯(lián)盟中被討論得最多的教練候選人，同時(shí)有很多人質(zhì)疑科爾缺乏執(zhí)教經(jīng)驗(yàn)?？茽栵@然證明質(zhì)疑者錯(cuò)了，而支持肖的聲音顯得毫無(wú)根據(jù)。

Theres no arguing that Phil Jackson and Popovich， like Jobs and Gates in the computing industry， loom large over the future of the NBA. Both guys deserve loads of credit for not only winning， but also shaping the way we think about the league. Still， its hard to look at the diverging fates of the Nuggets and Knicks versus the Spurs， Hawks， and Warriors and not hypothesize that Popovichs legacy will have a longer tail， at least stylistically.

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，就像計(jì)算機(jī)界的喬布斯和蓋茨一樣，菲爾·杰克遜和波波維奇對(duì)NBA的未來(lái)有著巨大的影響。兩個(gè)人都配得上大量的贊譽(yù)，他們不僅是贏家，還確定了我們看待聯(lián)盟的方法。然而，看到掘金、尼克斯和馬刺、老鷹、勇士的命運(yùn)對(duì)比時(shí)，我們很難不去想波波維奇會(huì)擁有更長(zhǎng)久的影響，至少?gòu)娘L(fēng)格上來(lái)說(shuō)如此。

Jackson can always say， “count the rings，” while Pop can always say， “count the proteges.”

杰克遜永遠(yuǎn)可以說(shuō)“數(shù)數(shù)戒指”，而波波維奇永遠(yuǎn)可以說(shuō)“數(shù)數(shù)徒弟”。

Shaw failed to get his players to coalesce into anything more than a collection of random NBA parts. Certainly， this failure is not unique to him， but that lack of coalescence is nonetheless evident not just in the wins and losses， but also in his teams low defensive efficiency and terrible perimeter shooting rates.

肖沒(méi)能讓自己的球員變成比一盤散沙更強(qiáng)的組合，當(dāng)然，這種失敗并非只出現(xiàn)在他一人身上。但缺少融合不僅表現(xiàn)在贏球和輸球上，還表現(xiàn)在球隊(duì)低下的防守效率和糟糕的外線投籃上。

Thirty-five years after the league adopted the 3-point line， Bryants generation is headed for the exit， while the league is full of upstart millennials who are not only keenly aware of the fact that 24-foot shots are worth 50 percent more than 22-foot shots， but also ready and willing to exploit that margin， no matter what it takes. Well， it takes ball movement， and the leagues best coaches are willing and able to implement tactics that help provide just that， while its struggling coaches are either too stubborn or too out of touch to achieve that perimeter nirvana. To hear LeGarie tell it， the “challenge will be to find the ball-movers instead of the ball-stoppers.” Its unclear if hes talking about players or coaches. It is probably both.

聯(lián)盟引入三分線的35年后，科比這一代人正在隱退。聯(lián)盟中滿是新生代，他們不僅清楚地知道24英尺的投籃比22英尺的投籃得分多50%，而且已經(jīng)做好準(zhǔn)備、并且愿意利用這樣的優(yōu)勢(shì)，不論需要付出什么都行。好吧，這需要將球轉(zhuǎn)移起來(lái)，需要聯(lián)盟最好的教練愿意且有能力制定出創(chuàng)造類似機(jī)會(huì)的戰(zhàn)術(shù)。而表現(xiàn)掙扎的教練要么太固執(zhí)，要么沒(méi)有能力實(shí)現(xiàn)外線的涅槃。聽拉加利怎么說(shuō)的，“挑戰(zhàn)在于尋找轉(zhuǎn)移球的人，而不是防守者。”我們不清楚他說(shuō)的是球員還是教練，很可能兩者都是。

①hotshot是美國(guó)俚語(yǔ)，常用的意思是自負(fù)、好賣弄的人，或者高手、能人。

②park effect是棒球的術(shù)語(yǔ)。棒球規(guī)則僅僅規(guī)定了內(nèi)野的規(guī)格，卻沒(méi)有規(guī)定外野的形制，所以同樣的球在不同球場(chǎng)可能導(dǎo)致不同的結(jié)果。