倒閉！破產(chǎn)！失業(yè)！何去何從？

The world continues to be in financial crisis, with banks, international institutions, and governments struggling to cope with the repercussions of the global credit crunch, the collapse of major financial firms, and the popping of the housing bubble. Sparked by dubious shenanigans around the American housing market, combined with an influx of money from boom economies between 2000 to 2006 which drove investors into increasingly risky markets, the global meltdown is having effects far beyond any one country. A complete collapse of the financial system seems to have been averted, but economists are still calling this "the worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s", which left tens of millions unemployed worldwide, drove previously rich areas to famine, and aided the rise of fascism in Europe. The immediate impact of the crash has already been seen in the economic statistics; the US economy shrank by 4% in the last quarter, and the whole of Europe has officially gone into recession. The effects are being seen in the "real economy", not just in the financial markets. Unemployment has risen worldwide, and consumer spending has fallen sharply.

全球金融危機(jī)仍在持續(xù)，銀行、國(guó)際機(jī)構(gòu)和政府都在苦苦掙扎應(yīng)對(duì)全球信貸緊縮、大型金融機(jī)構(gòu)倒閉和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫破裂帶來(lái)的后果。美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)不正當(dāng)?shù)慕灰追绞绞侨蚪?jīng)濟(jì)崩潰的導(dǎo)火線，加上從2000年到2006年繁榮經(jīng)濟(jì)體資金的流入將投資者驅(qū)向風(fēng)險(xiǎn)越來(lái)越大的市場(chǎng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰對(duì)任何一個(gè)國(guó)家都造成影響。金融體系的徹底崩潰似乎已經(jīng)避免，但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們依然稱之為“自上世紀(jì)30年代美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的一場(chǎng)危機(jī)”。經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條導(dǎo)致全球數(shù)千萬(wàn)人失業(yè)，迫使以前富裕的地區(qū)面臨饑餓的威脅，同時(shí)使歐洲法西斯主義得以興起。通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)可以看到經(jīng)濟(jì)崩潰瞬間產(chǎn)生的巨大影響，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在今年最后一季度縮水了4%，整個(gè)歐洲正式進(jìn)入了衰退時(shí)期。經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)不僅沖擊金融市場(chǎng)，對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響也在凸顯。全球失業(yè)率上升，消費(fèi)者支出已經(jīng)迅速下滑。

Developed economies have generally responded to the crisis with the announcement of major stimulus packages. Interest rates have been cut dramatically, making it less expensive to borrow and less profitable to save. Recessions often become worse because people's fears and uncertainities are reflected in their spending, causing a massive loss of consumer confidence.Behaviour that might be rational and sensible for individuals, such as not buying things they can't afford, staying out of debt, and living within their means, is often bad for the economy as a whole.Several governments have therefore tried to increase people's spending with tax cuts, particularly on those taxes which apply at the point of sale. In the United Kingdom, VAT, a 17.5% charge on many items, has just been lowered to 15% in an attempt to boost spending. Massive public spending packages, totalling trillions of dollars worldwide, have also been announced, with governments from Germany to Korea hoping that this will provide much needed jobs - although it will also badly boost public debt.

發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家紛紛出臺(tái)重大經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)。利率急劇下降，使借款不再昂貴，存款利潤(rùn)減少。由于人們?cè)谙M(fèi)中體現(xiàn)出的恐懼與不確定性導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者信心大幅下減，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退雪上加霜。對(duì)個(gè)人來(lái)說(shuō)一些行為是理性明智的，比如不購(gòu)買支付不起的商品，不賒欠債款，量入為出，對(duì)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)來(lái)說(shuō)通常會(huì)造成不利影響。因此一些政府嘗試以減稅的方式來(lái)刺激人們的消費(fèi)，尤其是在銷售端進(jìn)行減稅。在英國(guó)，許多物品原來(lái)的增值稅稅率是17.5%，現(xiàn)在為了刺激消費(fèi)下降到15%。全球總額上萬(wàn)億美元的全面消費(fèi)刺激方案也已經(jīng)公布，從德國(guó)政府到韓國(guó)政府各國(guó)都希望這些方案會(huì)帶來(lái)大量的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，雖然這些方案也會(huì)很大程度地增加國(guó)債。

After stock markets dived, emergency measures were taken to close them in developing markets, such as Russia and Indonesia. Elsewhere, short-selling (betting that stocks will fall) has been banned. Many banks have been nationalised by various governments, such as Northern Rock in the UK, Fortis in Belgium, and all three of the major Icelandic banks. Others are being propped up with government money. America's bailout package has been particularly controversial, providing hundreds of billions of dollars to prop up companies in return for the government receiving a share of any future projects. The value of the shares purchased under the bailout program has already dropped by one third. America is also facing the grim prospect of whether to attempt to bail out her failing car industries - which may be a case of simply shoving dollars down a money pit, as some believe the "Big Three" of Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors are simply too far gone to save. If the government lets them fail, however, the damage to the economy will be enormous, with hundreds of thousands of jobs lost and millions affected indirectly.

股市跳水后，發(fā)展中國(guó)家紛紛采取緊急措施關(guān)閉股市，例如俄羅斯和印度。有些地方禁止售空（確信股票將會(huì)下跌）。許多銀行被政府收購(gòu)接管，如英國(guó)北巖銀行，比利時(shí)富通銀行，還有冰島三大銀行。其它銀行則依靠政府的資金維持。美國(guó)救市方案一直極具爭(zhēng)議性，為扶持一些公司政府提供數(shù)千億美元的救援資金，作為回報(bào)，政府將分享今后一切項(xiàng)目的收益。在救市計(jì)劃之下購(gòu)買的股票價(jià)值已經(jīng)縮減了三分之一。美國(guó)還面臨著是否要拯救正處下滑趨勢(shì)的汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的嚴(yán)峻前景，這樣做可能就等于將錢丟進(jìn)坑里白白浪費(fèi)了，有些人認(rèn)為克萊斯勒、福特和通用汽車公司這“三大巨頭”已經(jīng)回天乏術(shù)。但如果政府讓它們破產(chǎn)，將會(huì)給經(jīng)濟(jì)造成巨大損失，數(shù)十萬(wàn)人將失業(yè)，數(shù)百萬(wàn)人將間接受到影響。

Many currencies have been adversely affected by the crisis. The American dollar, paradoxically, has strengthened despite the weakness of the American economy, as investors fled to the perceived "safe haven" of treasury bills and other government savings. It is predicted to drop again in the next three to six months, after the damage done by recession becomes clearer. Many other currencies, such as the pound, the Australian and Canadian dollars, and the Korean won, fell badly, losing 20% to 30% of their value. The Korean economy, which is closely tied in to the USA thanks to a large Korean-American population and the popularity of American universities among Korean students, was particularly hurt by the drop in the won's value. China, in contrast, is rumoured to be considering devaluing the yuan in order to boost her exports, a move which would cause controversy among many Americans who believe that the yuan is already undervalued.

許多貨幣已經(jīng)受到了危機(jī)的不良影響。相反，盡管美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟，美元卻走強(qiáng)，投資者都逃往他們認(rèn)定的“避風(fēng)港”——國(guó)庫(kù)券和其它政府儲(chǔ)蓄。在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退造成的損失日益明顯后，美元在未來(lái)3到6個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)計(jì)繼續(xù)下跌。許多其它貨幣，如英鎊、澳元和加元以及韓元都跌得厲害，幣值下跌了20%至30%。由于韓裔美國(guó)人口眾多和韓國(guó)學(xué)生對(duì)美國(guó)大學(xué)的青睞，韓國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與美國(guó)緊密相連，韓元的貶值重創(chuàng)韓國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。相反，據(jù)傳中國(guó)正考慮將人民幣貶值以刺激出口，這個(gè)舉措將會(huì)受到很多美國(guó)人的非議，他們認(rèn)為人民幣的定值已經(jīng)過(guò)低了。

Oil-producing states have been particularly badly hit by the sudden drop in the price of a barrel, which fell from a peak of over $140 to five-year-lows of under $50 within a couple of months.With many countries, such as Russia and Venezuala, having already announced ambitious spending plans, the sudden fall in prices has badly disrupted their finances. Dubai, which had been undergoing an oil-and-financial fuelled boom, is facing an economic crisis, as backers default on ambitious building schemes and expat jobs disappear. OPEC, the chief association of oil-producing states, has announced a scaleback in production in order to artificially raise prices.

原油價(jià)格迅速下滑，從最高點(diǎn)每桶超過(guò)140美元在幾個(gè)月內(nèi)跌至5年以來(lái)的低點(diǎn)每桶不足50美元，重創(chuàng)石油輸出國(guó)。許多國(guó)家，如俄羅斯和委內(nèi)瑞拉都已經(jīng)公布了巨大的開(kāi)支計(jì)劃，油價(jià)的突然下跌嚴(yán)重影響了兩國(guó)的財(cái)政。當(dāng)投資者未實(shí)現(xiàn)大型的施工計(jì)劃，外來(lái)工人就業(yè)崗位消失了，處于由石油和金融業(yè)推動(dòng)的發(fā)展熱潮中的迪拜正陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)當(dāng)中。石油輸出國(guó)組織歐佩克已經(jīng)做出削減石油產(chǎn)量以實(shí)現(xiàn)人為提高石油價(jià)格的決定。

Many have pinned their hopes on the continued growth of India and China. With export orders dropping, however, Chinese manufacturers have been badly hit, particularly in the southern metropolises of Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Hundreds of factories there have already closed, leaving workers and bankers to fight over the remaining product. Six million migrant workers are returning to their hometowns every day, causing chaotic scenes at rail and bus stations. With a growing population of graduates and an existing job shortage, China needs to maintain at least an 8 or 9% growth rate just to maintain existing employment levels. Economists fear growth may fall as low as 5 or 6%, stunning rates for other countries, but dangerously low in overheated and overpopulated China, and definitely not enough to provide jobs for the nation's six million new university graduates. The government has already announced investment packages and aid for threatened industries. India, which has been more focused on domestic markets than foreign exports, is experiencing less impact, although economic growth is expected to fall in the next year. The stock market in both countries has also fallen dramatically, damaging the emergent middle classes.

很多人寄望于經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的印度和中國(guó)。然而由于出口訂單減少，中國(guó)制造商遭到了劇烈的沖擊，尤其是在廣州和深圳等一些南方大都市。這些地區(qū)有上百家工廠已經(jīng)關(guān)閉，工人和銀行爭(zhēng)奪存留的產(chǎn)品。6百萬(wàn)流動(dòng)工人每天陸續(xù)返鄉(xiāng)，使火車站和汽車站呈現(xiàn)嘈雜的景象。中國(guó)大學(xué)畢業(yè)生人數(shù)不斷增加，現(xiàn)有工作崗位短缺，為了保持現(xiàn)有的就業(yè)水平，中國(guó)應(yīng)至少保持8%至9%的增長(zhǎng)率。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家擔(dān)心增長(zhǎng)率會(huì)下降到5%至6%，雖然這對(duì)其它國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)是個(gè)非常不錯(cuò)的數(shù)字，但對(duì)于發(fā)展迅速、人口過(guò)多的中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)這個(gè)數(shù)字太低太危險(xiǎn)，根本不能滿足本國(guó)6百萬(wàn)剛剛畢業(yè)的大學(xué)生的工作需求。政府已經(jīng)出臺(tái)了一攬子投資計(jì)劃和救助受到威脅的產(chǎn)業(yè)的方案。更注重本國(guó)市場(chǎng)而非對(duì)外出口的印度受到的影響較小，然而經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度預(yù)計(jì)在明年將會(huì)減緩。兩國(guó)的股市都劇烈下跌，傷害了兩國(guó)新興的中產(chǎn)階級(jí)。

With the aftershocks from the crisis still going on, this looks to be a dire year for everyone.Social disorder and rioting are expected to increase worldwide. In Greece, the recent murder of a teenager by police officers has already sparked days of massive riots, fueled by widespread unemployment and economic fears. Last year also saw a food crisis, with prices driven up by poor harvests and the switching of fields to the production of biofuels, which led to riots in Egypt, Syria, India, and Indonesia. Despite incomes falling, food prices remain high.

經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的影響持續(xù)蔓延，對(duì)每個(gè)人來(lái)說(shuō)這是可怕的一年。全球社會(huì)動(dòng)亂和騷亂將會(huì)加劇。在希臘，警察射殺一名少年這一事件引發(fā)了數(shù)日的暴亂，暴亂由于大量的失業(yè)與經(jīng)濟(jì)恐慌點(diǎn)燃。去年由于糧食歉收食物價(jià)格上漲，土地改種生物燃料，引發(fā)了糧食危機(jī)，從而導(dǎo)致埃及、敘利亞、印度和印尼的暴亂。盡管收入在下降，糧食價(jià)格依然居高不下。

There are hopes that some economies may struggle out of recession by the end of 2009, but 2010 seems a more likely date for the beginning of recovery. It is the end of an ideological era, too, as unquestioned claims of the supremacy of unfettered markets and easy global trade have been blown away by the hard reality of failure. An entire swathe of banking has disappeared - in America, Wall Street, once the icon of bankers worldwide, is all but gone. There is, as yet, no international consensus on how a revived financial system would work, but policies, such as government-backed financial markets, that would have seemed wildly radical last year are now being given serious thought. Who knows what the future will bring?

一些國(guó)家有望能夠在2009年底走出經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的陰霾，但可能要到2010年經(jīng)濟(jì)才更有可能會(huì)開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇。這同時(shí)又是一個(gè)意識(shí)形態(tài)結(jié)束的時(shí)代，因?yàn)閷?duì)不受約束的市場(chǎng)的優(yōu)越性與全球貿(mào)易便利毋庸置疑的宣稱已經(jīng)被失敗這一殘酷的事實(shí)拂去。許多銀行消失了，曾經(jīng)被全世界銀行家崇拜的美國(guó)華爾街已經(jīng)逝去。如今就怎樣使金融體系復(fù)蘇這一問(wèn)題國(guó)際社會(huì)還沒(méi)有達(dá)成共識(shí)，但一些政策，如政府控制的金融市場(chǎng)，在去年看來(lái)也許瘋狂偏激，但現(xiàn)在正被謹(jǐn)慎考慮。誰(shuí)知道未來(lái)會(huì)給我們帶來(lái)什么呢？